17 predictions for AI in 2026
https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
Published: December 31, 2025 17:41
AI will continue improving rapidly, but real-world economic impacts will be modest.
🦜 Understanding AI | Timothy B. Lee | Substack
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Exploring how AI works and how it's changing our world. Click to read Understanding AI, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.
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Waymo and Tesla’s self-driving systems are more similar than people think
https://www.understandingai.org/p/waymo-and-teslas-self-driving-systems
Published: December 17, 2025 22:01
Everyone is moving toward transformer-based, end-to-end architectures.
The best Chinese open-weight models — and the strongest US rivals
https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-best-chinese-open-weight-models
Published: December 15, 2025 15:58
The Understanding AI guide to open-weight models.
Google and Anthropic approach LLMs differently
https://www.understandingai.org/p/google-and-anthropic-approach-llms
Published: December 4, 2025 18:49
The very different cultures of OpenAI's two most important rivals.
Help some of the poorest people in Rwanda
https://www.understandingai.org/p/help-some-of-the-poorest-people-in
Published: December 2, 2025 12:06
If readers give $20,000 to GiveDirectly, my wife and I will give another $10,000.
Six reasons to think there’s an AI bubble — and six reasons not to
https://www.understandingai.org/p/six-reasons-to-think-theres-an-ai
Published: November 25, 2025 13:03
A complete playbook for every AI bubble debate.
An AI “tsunami” is coming for Hollywood — here’s how artists are responding
https://www.understandingai.org/p/an-ai-tsunami-is-coming-for-hollywood
Published: November 19, 2025 20:00
I talked with nine creators about economic pressures and fan backlash.
Waymo’s next five cities are all in red states
https://www.understandingai.org/p/waymos-next-five-cities-are-all-in
Published: November 18, 2025 20:12
Liberal cities risk falling behind on driverless technology.
Waymo is finally ready for freeway service
https://www.understandingai.org/p/waymo-is-finally-ready-for-freeway
Published: November 12, 2025 22:55
The self-driving leader is getting ready to conquer the Sun Belt.
AI ads are going mainstream
https://www.understandingai.org/p/ai-ads-are-going-mainstream
Published: November 12, 2025 17:58
Why Google, Coca-Cola, and other companies have embraced AI ads.
Context rot: the emerging challenge that could hold back LLM progress
https://www.understandingai.org/p/context-rot-the-emerging-challenge
Published: November 10, 2025 16:33
What if attention isn't all you need?
Tech leaders insist there is no AI bubble
https://www.understandingai.org/p/tech-leaders-insist-there-is-no-ai
Published: October 31, 2025 18:35
"We keep on having more demand," Mark Zuckerberg said.
AI skeptics and AI boosters are both wrong
https://www.understandingai.org/p/ai-skeptics-and-ai-boosters-are-both
Published: October 30, 2025 19:52
"We’re in an intelligence explosion already and have been for decades," Andrej Karpathy said.
16 charts that explain the AI boom
https://www.understandingai.org/p/16-charts-that-explain-the-ai-boom
Published: October 27, 2025 18:37
It’s one of the largest investment booms in the post-war era.
Sora, OpenAI’s chart-topping AI video app, explained
https://www.understandingai.org/p/sora-openais-chart-topping-ai-video
Published: October 8, 2025 20:56
Sora is number one on the iOS App Store. Meta's AI app is 76th.
AI isn't replacing radiologists
https://www.understandingai.org/p/ai-isnt-replacing-radiologists
Published: October 1, 2025 13:03
Radiology combines digital images, clear benchmarks, and repeatable tasks. But demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high.
How AI is shaking up the study of earthquakes
https://www.understandingai.org/p/how-ai-is-shaking-up-the-study-of
Published: September 29, 2025 13:30
“It's kind of like putting on glasses for the first time,” one scientist told me.
The case for AI doom isn't very convincing
https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-case-for-ai-doom-isnt-very-convincing
Published: September 25, 2025 20:16
I read Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book, "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies."
Welcome Kai!
https://www.understandingai.org/p/welcome-kai
Published: September 18, 2025 15:10
Understanding AI has a new writer.
Very few of Waymo’s most serious crashes were Waymo’s fault
https://www.understandingai.org/p/very-few-of-waymos-most-serious-crashes
Published: September 17, 2025 21:28
I looked at 45 major Waymo crashes—most were human error.