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Guest view: Defanged Fed faces yield curve dilemma
Published: September 12, 2025 13:40
If the Trump administration unravels the central bank’s independence, the Federal Reserve will come under pressure to control government borrowing costs. That will mean committing to large-scale purchases of US Treasury bonds, argues Michael Pedroni of…
LVMH is well-placed for Armani’s bespoke auction
Published: September 12, 2025 11:14
The late designer instructed heirs to sell 15% of his group, with scope to hit 70% after three years. LVMH, EssilorLuxottica and L’Oréal are suitors with first dibs. Bernard Arnault’s couture background and size put him in pole position for a prize worth…
Inflation defences are no match for debt burden
Published: September 11, 2025 22:00
Indebted Western governments face the temptation to let higher prices erode their heavy borrowings. Independent central banks, index-linked debt and fixed exchange rates are designed to resist that impulse. However, none is strong enough to provide an…
Anglo-Teck could exhume a viable Glencore-Rio deal
Published: September 11, 2025 11:48
The Swiss miner is best placed to crash the duo’s $54 bln merger. Yet given Glencore owns part of the Chilean copper at the core of that deal, it gains by doing nothing. That also hikes its appeal to Rio Tinto, which had a look last year, needs copper, and…
Elliott opens new frontier with Japan nuclear bet
Published: September 11, 2025 06:04
The US activist investor wants $17 bln Kansai Electric to offload non-core assets. Its presence in a sensitive sector may have protected the power operator from pushy shareholders but no longer. A more efficient firm can capitalise on its lead in…
Oil boom conceals a green energy jackpot
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/oil-boom-conceals-green-energy-jackpot-2025-09-11/
Published: September 11, 2025 05:00
The US needs electricity. Solar, wind and batteries are cheap and quick to build, but erratic. The hunt for crude may have inadvertently opened a path to another solution: on-demand, advanced geothermal power. The problem now is finding as much as $1 trln…
No pain, no gain: Ozempic’s quest for market share
Published: September 11, 2025 04:13
The shock success of GLP-1 treatments for obesity carries massive implications for wealthy societies and manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly alike. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how this would-be jackpot has…
Oracle will test AI’s scale-begets-scale trade
Published: September 10, 2025 17:14
The company’s value shot up by over $200 bln after its contract backlog more than tripled. Demand from clients like OpenAI seems insatiable. Snag is, spending tripled too. Wringing durably chunky returns on such a massive capital base is an unprecedented…
Time to put a digital euro ahead of bank interests
Published: September 10, 2025 05:00
The ECB is accelerating plans for a new payments system, which would help it retain control of the money supply in the face of a $280 bln US stablecoin threat. But caring too much about bank deposit flight may compromise the project. Better to accept the…
Hyundai raid sets Trump goals against each other
Published: September 10, 2025 04:22
The mass arrest of mostly South Korean workers at the carmaker’s $4 bln battery joint venture with LG Energy highlights the president’s anti-immigration push. But his desire to reshore high-tech manufacturing requires companies to bring in overseas…
Bourse IPOs make crypto too big to ignore
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/bourse-ipos-make-crypto-too-big-ignore-2025-09-09/
Published: September 9, 2025 15:24
Upstart exchanges Gemini and Bullish are making much-anticipated market debuts, buoyed on the one hand by a partnership with Nasdaq and easing US regulation on the other. It puts $6.5 trln of trading volume into sharper focus. Incumbent venues will reach…
Indonesia triggers key woman risk
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/indonesia-triggers-key-woman-risk-2025-09-09/
Published: September 9, 2025 05:55
President Prabowo has ditched finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, well-respected for fiscal discipline, amid weeks of protests. The rupiah and stocks have tumbled as fears of spending increases mount in the $1.4 trln economy. At least Indonesia has…
Private equity sets its sights on the little guy
https://www.reuters.com/podcasts/private-equity-sets-its-sights-little-guy-podcast-2025-09-09/
Published: September 9, 2025 04:14
Apollo, Blackstone and KKR raised billions from deep-pocketed institutions for buyouts and private credit. Now they’re targeting the $145 trln held by individuals. In this episode of The Big View podcast, iCapital CEO Lawrence Calcano explains the…
Murdoch’s family payout is a gift to investors too
Published: September 8, 2025 22:48
The media mogul is buying out three of his children to ensure favored son Lachlan gets control of Fox and News Corp. It ends a brutal court fight, settling any brawls before the patriarch is gone. Despite the brazen tactics to protect a dynasty, continuity…
Trump-China deal rests on the art of the possible
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/trump-china-deal-rests-art-possible-2025-09-09/
Published: September 8, 2025 22:00
The US president’s 2019 pact with the People’s Republic flopped, yet the White House is once again pushing for high-stakes negotiations. A chance to axe 20% tariffs tied to fentanyl could bring Xi Jinping to the table. Any agreement may be as ephemeral as…
Charlie Ergen’s payoff: a space-bound meme hoard
Published: September 8, 2025 16:56
The mogul’s wireless-spectrum gathering made EchoStar a bet on its value. A $17 bln deal with SpaceX takes the gambit to the stratosphere, swapping airwaves for shares in Elon Musk’s rocket-maker. Smaller troves have won a massive premium. The problem has…
Beating inflation is new Japan PM’s top task
Published: September 8, 2025 06:01
Rising prices, not least for rice, helped topple Shigeru Ishiba. His successor needs to rein them in, say by axing policies that limit available supplies. Otherwise the minority government may face a string of short-term leaders, risking a populist shift…
Gucci is poster child for luxury key-designer risk
Published: September 8, 2025 05:00
Investors reckon $34 bln Kering’s revamp hinges on its main brand’s new creative, Demna. Evidence that a few star designers can drive shareholder value explains recent sector musical chairs. Yet fickle buyers, changing trends and weak sales make…
Tesla’s Musk pay scheme mixes two kinds of madness
Published: September 5, 2025 16:35
The carmaker’s board wants to gift $1 trln to its boss with a new incentive plan. He has to hit goals that start from the weak benchmarks of past promises but rise to aptly far-fetched targets, like $8.5 trln in market value. The trade-off: speeding Musk’s…
Britain’s economic woes are sadly home-grown
Published: September 5, 2025 05:00
Soaring government borrowing costs invoke memories of the country’s humiliating 1976 IMF bailout. Yet external support would not address the UK’s mainly domestic imbalances. Investors seeking a catalyst for politically painful changes should know they’re…
Temasek overhaul inches it in the right direction
Published: September 5, 2025 01:43
CEO Dilhan Pillay is creating three separate units for its $338 bln portfolio of Singapore businesses, global investments, and partnerships, and will be firmer with companies it controls. That should boost performance. The next step is to commit to more…
Ellison brings Big Tech tactics to media scramble
Published: September 4, 2025 16:12
The Paramount boss is eyeing New York Times alum Bari Weiss’ news startup and a possible role at CBS. A whopping $100 mln price is beside the point. Media’s newest mogul is playing his cards like Mark Zuckerberg: the terms scream acquihire, not buzzy bet…
JPMorgan German retail bank has weak UK launchpad
Published: September 4, 2025 10:42
The US giant’s international consumer unit, Chase, has sucked up $31 bln of British deposits but hasn’t fully cracked lending yet. Now, it’s launching in a notoriously overbanked market. The digital model rests on scale, but growing too quickly may be a…
France pushes EU’s omnicrisis to breaking point
Published: September 4, 2025 04:26
Bleak finances, surging far-right support and a key vote that could topple Prime Minister François Bayrou: long-simmering instability in the No. 2 euro zone economy may boil over. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists debate what it means for…
China’s carmakers are heading for a crash
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/chinas-carmakers-are-heading-crash-2025-09-04/
Published: September 3, 2025 22:00
Beijing wants to end the industry’s destructive competition. Yet its measures are piecemeal, and neither central nor local officials are tackling the root cause: massive overcapacity. It leaves companies from Nio to Dongfeng dangerously exposed to any…
Loss of Suntory CEO leaves whisky maker listless
Published: September 3, 2025 07:52
A police probe forced Takeshi Niinami to resign after a decade helming the Japanese brewer. His exit follows a 36% plunge in first-half earnings on the back of dampened local consumption. With tariff uncertainty threatening profits abroad, his successor…
Fledgling media mogul arrives unfashionably late
Published: September 3, 2025 05:00
David Ellison’s first move after buying Paramount was an $8 bln deal to stream UFC mixed martial arts. To build an empire a la Rupert Murdoch or John Malone also calls for more M&A. It will be hard to rival self-made $500 bln Netflix, however, by gluing…
Central Asia electro-yuan can be Xi's summit win
Published: September 3, 2025 01:59
The Chinese leader's confab with Modi, Putin and others is a big show of power. Yet it also highlights deep ties with Central Asia, where firms from the People's Republic are ramping up green energy projects. Those can boost usage of China's currency, akin…
Kraft Heinz spoons out finance in one yucky flavor
Published: September 2, 2025 17:42
Ketchup and hot dogs will be split after mixing them left a mess partly cooked up by Warren Buffett. Some $1.5 bln of promised annual savings in 2015 are leaving an implausibly low $300 mln in dis-synergies. The endless cycle of wheeling and dealing often…
Latest Nestlé CEO exit is chance for bigger reset
Published: September 2, 2025 08:20
The $234 bln KitKat maker ousted Laurent Freixe for having a secret relationship with a subordinate. New boss Philipp Navratil can ditch a relatively old-school strategy which risked falling flat. Selling the US frozen food unit would raise cash for a…
Palantir’s wild valuation flags hyper-prime status
Published: September 2, 2025 05:00
The $372 bln defence-focused US software group trades at a seemingly indefensible 87 times sales. Its hunger for sensitive troop data may complicate expanding abroad amid a trade war. A chance to become the military’s operating system, though, really does…
What China has to teach the US about technology
Published: September 2, 2025 04:09
The world’s two biggest economies are going head-to-head on everything from cars to chips. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Peter Thal Larsen talks to the author and analyst Dan Wang about how the People’s Republic developed, and what the US can…
China backseat driving risks sending AI off course
Published: September 2, 2025 03:36
Officials want to crack down on disorderly competition in the country's fast-growing $140 bln sector. There's some logic to preventing the kind of free-for-all investment scramble engulfing US players. But Beijing has a poor track record of picking tech…
France could end euro zone’s happy yield party
Published: September 1, 2025 11:20
Borrowing costs across the bloc’s longtime members have converged to levels rarely seen since 2008. The gap between highest and lowest is now just under 90 basis points. Yet while risks have faded in Italy and elsewhere, debt levels are high. France could…
Donald Trump is weaker than he looks
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/donald-trump-is-weaker-than-he-looks-2025-08-31/
Published: August 31, 2025 23:54
The US president is getting his way with weak entities like the EU. But China, Russia, India and the Federal Reserve have so far stood firm, while court rulings may frustrate his tariff plans. Meanwhile, his popularity is waning and the midterm elections…
Outside capital puts US law’s old order on trial
https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/outside-capital-puts-us-laws-old-order-trial-2025-08-29/
Published: August 29, 2025 14:39
Legal partnerships have long held themselves apart from corporate conformity, insulated by rule and tradition. Burford Capital’s attempt to invest in the $375 bln industry suggests that wall is cracking. The model that defined the profession for centuries…
Andrea Orcel’s Greek foray promises handsome gifts
Published: August 29, 2025 10:44
The UniCredit CEO had to abandon an Italian deal and hit a rut in his pursuit of Germany’s Commerzbank. Yet a 26% stake in 8-bln-euro Alpha Bank is already paying off. A full takeover looks viable, and may face less political opposition than Orcel…
Chips-for-rare-earths is US-China circuit breaker
Published: August 29, 2025 02:12
The White House wants to loosen the People’s Republic’s grip on critical minerals; Beijing wants to do the same with Western semiconductors. That will take years of investment and political will. For now, mutual dependence is a brake on escalating trade…