Oops! I made the convention bounce adjustment disappear.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/oops-i-made-the-convention-bounce
Published: September 7, 2024 15:34
One neat trick — for today's newsletter only.
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The Electoral College bias has returned with a vengeance
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-electoral-college-bias-has-returned
Published: September 6, 2024 16:44
Trump has gained in critical states since the DNC — but that may be reversion to the mean.
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Published: September 3, 2024 16:24
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
There’s no “normal” in this election
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election
Published: September 3, 2024 09:20
Why Harris is leading in our polling averages — but not in our forecast. And why it’s hard to know where we’re headed next.
SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump
Published: August 31, 2024 16:10
Plus, the mistakes I made in the “data journalism” era.
Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris
https://www.natesilver.net/p/pennsylvania-may-be-a-problem-for
Published: August 29, 2024 17:22
The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.
Could Kamala Harris really win North Carolina — and lose Georgia?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/could-kamala-harris-really-win-north
Published: August 28, 2024 16:25
The tale of the tape.
How big will the bounce be?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-big-will-the-bounce-be
Published: August 26, 2024 18:46
The bull and the bear case for Harris’s post-convention numbers.
We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model
Published: August 24, 2024 21:31
Harris's convention bounce has offset any impact — so far.
Kamala Harris is not going back to the failed politics of 2016
https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-is-not-going-back-to
Published: August 23, 2024 19:58
She's good at this. And her speech was a shift away from Clintonian politics — and from wokeness.
RFK Jr. will probably drop out. Is that bearish for Harris?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/rfk-jr-will-probably-drop-out-is
Published: August 22, 2024 23:24
Pun absolutely intended.