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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, by Nate Silver, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Site URL: www.natesilver.net/?utm_source=substack
Feed URL: www.natesilver.net/feed
Posts: 13
Followers: 2
How much can Trump screw with the midterms?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-much-can-trump-screw-with-the
Published: April 29, 2026 11:03
Doomsday scenarios are unlikely, but the realistic ones deserve more attention. A Q&A with Votebeat's Nathaniel Rakich.
How popular is Elon Musk?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin
Published: April 28, 2026 15:30
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
Can we please stop rationalizing political violence?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/can-we-please-stop-rationalizing
Published: April 28, 2026 00:12
I wish I didn't have to state the obvious.
Yes, Virginia, redistricting is a two-player game
https://www.natesilver.net/p/yes-virginia-redistricting-is-a-two
Published: April 23, 2026 00:32
Democratic voters are pretty rational. For once, their leadership has been, too.
SBSQ #31: Trump is super unpopular. So why don’t Democrats have a bigger lead?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-31-trump-is-super-unpopular
Published: April 21, 2026 21:09
A deeper look at the generic ballot. Plus, the game theory of the automated strike zone. And more models coming soon!
The profoundly weird race for Rookie of the Year
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-profoundly-weird-race-for-rookie
Published: April 17, 2026 19:18
Dramatic late twists, stats versus vibes — and another test of what prediction markets really measure.
"Engagement" is a dumb metric
https://www.natesilver.net/p/engagement-is-a-dumb-metric
Published: April 14, 2026 18:21
An algorithm doesn’t always tell you what content people truly find valuable. Plus more from my chat with Mike Solana.
“AI polls” are fake polls
https://www.natesilver.net/p/ai-polls-are-fake-polls
Published: April 11, 2026 15:38
But they might be useful as something else: models.
How popular is Donald Trump?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Published: April 9, 2026 13:02
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
How popular is the Iran War?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval
Published: April 9, 2026 13:01
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
Published: April 9, 2026 13:00
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
Nuclear brinkmanship usually works. It’s also incredibly dangerous.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nuclear-brinkmanship-usually-works
Published: April 8, 2026 05:27
A small chance of a catastrophic outcome isn’t something to shrug off.
COOPER women's NCAA basketball ratings
https://www.natesilver.net/p/cooper-womens-ncaa-basketball-power-ratings
Published: April 7, 2026 15:20
Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 363 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.