Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/should-kamala-harris-gamble-on-a
Published: October 3, 2024 20:36
Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high.
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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, by Nate Silver, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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Is Tim Walz bringing vibes to a knife fight?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-tim-walz-bringing-vibes-to-a-knife
Published: October 2, 2024 15:10
JD Vance revealed Democratic weaknesses — but they may not matter.
SBSQ #13: October Surprise edition
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-13-october-surprise-edition
Published: October 1, 2024 20:24
Is Shohei Ohtani the GOAT? What effect could a hurricane have on the election? And what do I think of the new 538 model?
The 128 paths to the White House
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-128-paths-to-the-white-house
Published: September 29, 2024 18:00
From the Sun Belt to the Rust Belt, which maps are most likely?
Which polls are biased toward Harris or Trump?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/which-polls-are-biased-toward-harris
Published: September 27, 2024 19:52
*Statistically* biased, we mean. A guide to house effects in the Silver Bulletin model.
Pigs fly. Hell freezes over. The Electoral College favors ... Democrats?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/pigs-fly-hell-freezes-over-the-electoral
Published: September 26, 2024 16:47
This scenario is not very likely — but probably worth a bet at 300:1
Trust a pollster more when it publishes “outliers”
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trust-a-pollster-more-when-it-publishes
Published: September 23, 2024 21:29
Just toss it in the average — because sometimes those outliers turn out to be right.
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Published: September 22, 2024 15:33
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
A tour of the 7½ key swing states
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-tour-of-the-7-key-swing-states
Published: September 21, 2024 17:28
There’s a 92 percent chance that this is where the election is decided.
Don't let randomness make a fool of you
https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-randomness-make-a-fool-of
Published: September 19, 2024 14:47
If you care about what happens in this election, don’t sweat the polls — go vote.