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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, by Nate Silver, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Site URL: www.natesilver.net/?utm_source=substack
Feed URL: www.natesilver.net/feed
Posts: 10
Followers: 2
Democrats can win the redistricting war
https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting
Published: August 25, 2025 10:05
Aggressive partisan gerrymandering is bad for democracy. But the new equilibrium is not necessarily bad for Democrats — if they play hardball.
Real talk on models, moderation, and the misuse of academic authority
https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and
Published: August 20, 2025 21:35
It’s time to stop being polite. Here are 37 takes on how moderation does or doesn't help candidates win — and why I trust outsiders to build election models more than academics.
How many seats will Texas redistricting cost Democrats?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting
Published: August 18, 2025 12:03
Almost certainly a few. But it all depends on whether the GOP can hold onto their gains among Hispanic voters.
How popular is Donald Trump?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Published: August 16, 2025 20:03
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
SBSQ #23: Does the media really have a liberal bias?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-23-does-the-media-really-have
Published: August 14, 2025 19:52
It's a tough call when you consider Fox News. Plus, teasing our new NFL model with Patrick Mahomes — and my poker player rating system.
How popular is Elon Musk?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin
Published: August 14, 2025 16:00
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
One year later, is the River winning?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/one-year-later-is-the-river-winning
Published: August 12, 2025 14:35
The paperback edition of On the Edge is out today.
I've tracked my last 800 flights. Here's when you really need to get to the airport.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-soon-should-you-arrive-at-the-airport
Published: August 7, 2025 14:27
The 2-hour rule is usually a myth.
Trump's jobs data denialism won't fool anyone
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trumps-jobs-data-denialism-wont-fool
Published: August 3, 2025 14:26
Firing the BLS commissioner won’t prevent the effects of tariffs. But it will reduce American economic leadership and increase uncertainty for businesses, workers and investors.
Is Epstein the new Russiagate?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-epstein-the-new-russiagate
Published: July 29, 2025 20:40
Political types are obsessed with the story. But that doesn't mean it's penetrated into the broader public.