It's 2004 all over again
https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-2004-all-over-again
Published: November 12, 2024 21:39
And that might not be such a bad thing for Democrats, especially with their Electoral College disadvantage erased.
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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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It's 2004 all over again
https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-2004-all-over-again
Published: November 12, 2024 21:39
And that might not be such a bad thing for Democrats, especially with their Electoral College disadvantage erased.
The model exactly predicted the most likely election map
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-model-exactly-predicted-the-most
Published: November 7, 2024 22:33
The actual map was the most common one in our 80,000 simulations! Even so, it contained some revealing surprises.
The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-story-of-trumps-win-was-foretold
Published: November 6, 2024 19:51
The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train.
Silver Bulletin 2024 election night model
https://www.natesilver.net/p/silver-bulletin-2024-election-night
Published: November 5, 2024 22:37
All the (election night) numbers for Trump and Harris.
SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-14-election-day-lightning-round
Published: November 5, 2024 17:48
All your last-minute questions, answered. Actually, just 13 of them.
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined
Published: November 5, 2024 08:15
So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.
The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-polls-are-close-but-that-doesnt
Published: November 4, 2024 00:14
A normal polling error in either direction could give either candidate a decisive victory.
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-shocking-iowa-poll-means-somebody
Published: November 3, 2024 01:46
Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.
There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
Published: November 1, 2024 22:20
Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.
How high will turnout be?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-high-will-turnout-be
Published: October 31, 2024 17:39
Plus, a 36-hour sale on annual subscriptions! And our Election Night plans.