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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
Are Water Resources Keeping Up with U.S. Economic Needs?
Published: December 3, 2024 02:00
Access to water is necessary to sustain human civilization and agricultural production. Recent analysis finds that most of U.S. land area, economic activity, and agricultural production are in regions with stable to positive trends in local water…
Productivity During and Since the Pandemic
Published: November 26, 2024 02:00
U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow pre-pandemic trend. As of mid-2024, it remained close to but…
How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation?
Published: November 19, 2024 02:00
Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to unemployed workers and of vacancies to effective job…
Examining the Performance of FOMC Inflation Forecasts
Published: November 13, 2024 02:00
Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then are revised in response to incoming data. Before the pandemic when actual inflation was mostly below 2%, participants consistently…
Landing Softly Is Just the Beginning
Published: October 22, 2024 00:00
The economy has significantly improved from just two years ago. Inflation has fallen substantially, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path. A soft landing is achievable, and the Fed is resolute to finish the job. But looking ahead, we…
International Influences on U.S. Inflation
Published: October 16, 2024 00:00
The COVID-19 inflation surge experienced abroad undoubtedly left its mark on U.S. inflation. As global economies return to business as usual, it is natural to ask whether international considerations continue to affect U.S. inflation. Recent analysis shows…
Job Vacancies and Firms’ Labor Market Perceptions
Published: October 8, 2024 00:00
During the post-pandemic period, the vacancy-unemployment ratio was at historically high levels, but the strength of overall labor demand was unclear. Analysis using data from the National Federation of Independent Business on firms’ perceptions of the…
How Aware Is the Public of Labor Market Conditions?
Published: October 1, 2024 00:00
Consumers’ perceptions of labor market conditions have historically aligned closely with the unemployment rate. However, the two diverged during the pandemic, when the unemployment rate spiked while people’s views of the labor market remained more…
The Macroeconomic Impact of Cash Transfers in Brazil
Published: September 24, 2024 00:00
Cash transfers are important fiscal policy tools for both advanced and developing countries. A study of one of the world’s largest cash transfer programs—Brazil’s Bolsa Familia—highlights the potentially large, positive, and persistent effects on the…
When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down?
Published: September 4, 2024 00:00
Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly high. A key explanation is that, especially since the…
Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California
Published: August 27, 2024 00:00
Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis shows that distance from high fire-risk zones had little…