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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 12
Followers: 1
Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?
Published: June 3, 2025 00:00
Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that includes regional representation. Evidence shows that the economic conditions in their respective regions have influenced how…
The Effects of Tariffs on Inflation and Production Costs
Published: May 20, 2025 00:00
A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact on prices for investment goods is likely to be much…
A Rising Star: The Natural Interest Rate in the Euro Area
Published: May 13, 2025 00:00
The natural rate of interest, also known as r-star, is a key variable for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy. A novel method of measuring this rate for the euro area uses a yield curve model estimated directly on the prices of bonds that are indexed to…
Underlying Trends in the U.S. Neutral Interest Rate
Published: April 22, 2025 00:00
After a prolonged decline, U.S. inflation-adjusted interest rates have increased somewhat since the pandemic—possibly implying a higher new normal. As central banks attempt to tame the post-pandemic inflationary bout, whether real rates will fall back…
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment
Published: April 15, 2025 00:00
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears…
The Changing Disparity in Prices Across States
Published: April 8, 2025 00:00
Differences in prices for consumer goods and services across states have been increasing since the early 2010s. Those differences accelerated during the pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge. Higher-price states saw faster inflation from 2019 to 2022…
Do Low Survey Response Rates Threaten Data Dependence?
Published: April 1, 2025 00:00
Monetary policy is forward-looking and dependent on policymakers’ economic outlook. When the outlook is deemed highly uncertain, policymakers may put more weight on incoming data when making monetary policy considerations. However, falling survey response…
The Ups and Downs of Household Income
Published: March 25, 2025 00:00
Changes in overall economic conditions may affect real household income levels and also how income is distributed across households. Analysis using annual data from 1967 to 2023 shows that the adverse effects of unemployment and inflation have been…
Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Published: February 25, 2025 02:00
Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional forecasters and investors expect the Federal Reserve to…
What’s Driving Labor Force Participation Among Women?
Published: February 11, 2025 02:00
A substantial and unexpected rise in women’s labor force participation rates over the past few years has been a key factor spurring rapid labor force growth. In particular, Hispanic women have made a disproportionately large contribution to post-pandemic…
Does Monetary Policy Tightening Reduce Inflation?
Published: February 4, 2025 02:00
Recent research has identified periods when the Federal Reserve intentionally acted to slow inflation when it exceeded desired levels. The success of these disinflation attempts reveals the extent of policymakers’ commitment to lowering inflation. An…
Ben Bernanke: Solving a Crisis, Changing the Fed
Published: January 14, 2025 02:00
Ben Bernanke’s contributions to economic thinking have been vast, from his extensive study of the Great Depression to groundbreaking research on the interplay of finance and the macroeconomy and the usefulness of unconventional monetary policy tools. His…