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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?
Published: August 25, 2026 00:00
The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in part a more-educated and older workforce—that is, a…
Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest
Published: August 18, 2026 00:00
The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of it are imprecise and volatile. A medium-run measure…
Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks
Published: August 11, 2026 00:00
The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond correlation recently flipped, suggesting that the…
Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion
Published: August 4, 2026 00:00
Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been pronounced for prime-age and college-educated individuals,…
Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge
Published: July 14, 2026 00:00
Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of professional forecasters during the pandemic-era inflation surge and moved closer to household expectations. Analyzing firms’ survey…
Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation
Published: July 7, 2026 00:00
A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that are experiencing consecutive positive or negative monthly…
Calibrating Monetary Policy
Published: June 30, 2026 00:00
The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff increases shows that preferred policy paths vary depending on…
Central Bank Bond Purchases and the Price of Safety
Published: June 23, 2026 00:00
Central banks purchase bonds and other securities with their own reserves. In doing so, they expand the supply of safe assets in the economy, which should lower the premium investors are willing to pay for safety. Analysis confirms that bond purchases by…
How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders
Published: June 2, 2026 00:00
U.S. labor force participation rose for decades until the mid-1990s but has fallen steadily since then. This general pattern masks different paths for men and women in the workforce. Aging and rising education explain much of the long-run changes but do…
Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?
Published: May 27, 2026 00:00
Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised…
Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?
Published: May 19, 2026 00:00
U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current…