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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
Bank Regulation Affects Monetary Policy Transmission
Published: October 14, 2026 00:00
How does monetary policy impact banks’ lending behavior when interest rate changes revalue their securities? Detailed supervisory data show that banks with larger losses on securities during the 2022–23 monetary policy tightening cycle extended less credit…
Pricing Inflation Swaps in the Japanese Bond Market
Published: October 8, 2026 00:00
Japanese government bond markets present a puzzling pattern. Unlike U.S. markets, where bond liquidity and other premiums have been shown to drive a wedge between prices of nominal U.S. Treasury securities and those of matching portfolios comprised of…
What Do Financial Officers Predict for the Labor Market?
Published: October 6, 2026 00:00
Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives regarding their expectations for wages at their firms have…
Effects of Oil Supply Disruptions on Oil Exporters, Importers
Published: October 1, 2026 00:00
Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export oil. Comparing the effects of past disruptions in Canada, a large net oil exporter, and the euro area, a large oil importer,…
Stablecoin Issuers’ Growing Appetite for Treasury Securities
Published: September 29, 2026 00:00
Over the past 20 years, the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has fallen substantially. Demand for U.S. debt has partly shifted towards private investors, including from novel sources, particularly stablecoin issuers. The increase in stablecoins’…
How AI Adoption Might Affect Bank Lending
Published: September 22, 2026 00:00
Commercial banks have led the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years. Evidence suggests that banks using AI more intensively tend to have higher returns on assets and higher shares of problem loans. Increased AI usage is also associated…
Consumer Vibe Check: Gas Prices and Inflation Expectations
Published: September 1, 2026 00:00
According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when households revise up their outlook for gas price growth…
What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?
Published: August 25, 2026 00:00
The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in part a more-educated and older workforce—that is, a…
Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest
Published: August 18, 2026 00:00
The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of it are imprecise and volatile. A medium-run measure…
Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks
Published: August 11, 2026 00:00
The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond correlation recently flipped, suggesting that the…
Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion
Published: August 4, 2026 00:00
Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been pronounced for prime-age and college-educated individuals,…