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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders
Published: June 2, 2026 00:00
U.S. labor force participation rose for decades until the mid-1990s but has fallen steadily since then. This general pattern masks different paths for men and women in the workforce. Aging and rising education explain much of the long-run changes but do…
Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?
Published: May 27, 2026 00:00
Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised…
Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?
Published: May 19, 2026 00:00
U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current…
AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy
Published: May 12, 2026 00:00
The business practice of adjusting prices using algorithms powered by artificial intelligence—known as AI pricing—has grown rapidly and spread across many sectors in the economy. Unlike traditional price setting, AI pricing uses predictive analysis of…
What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?
Published: May 5, 2026 00:00
Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s…
Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose
Published: April 14, 2026 00:00
Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work,…
Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation
Published: April 7, 2026 00:00
Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because…
Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations
Published: April 1, 2026 00:00
Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements…
The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation
Published: March 31, 2026 00:00
Tariffs are usually applied to imported goods—but in an interconnected economy, their effects can be felt in the prices of other goods and services. Estimates using data across multiple advanced economies show that inflation declines right after tariffs…
The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy
Published: February 24, 2026 02:00
AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the…
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
Published: February 18, 2026 02:00
The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data…