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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose
Published: April 14, 2026 00:00
Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work,…
Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation
Published: April 7, 2026 00:00
Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because…
Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations
Published: April 1, 2026 00:00
Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements…
The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation
Published: March 31, 2026 00:00
Tariffs are usually applied to imported goods—but in an interconnected economy, their effects can be felt in the prices of other goods and services. Estimates using data across multiple advanced economies show that inflation declines right after tariffs…
The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy
Published: February 24, 2026 02:00
AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the…
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
Published: February 18, 2026 02:00
The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data…
Is the PPPLF Still Encouraging Small Business Lending?
Published: February 10, 2026 02:00
The Federal Reserve designed its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility to ease liquidity issues and support small business lending during the pandemic. The liquidity facility allowed banks to pledge Paycheck Protection Program loans as risk-free…
Housing Affordability and Housing Demand
Published: February 3, 2026 02:00
Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income growth is strongly related to rising house prices but is…
The Recent Slowdown in Labor Supply and Demand
Published: January 13, 2026 02:00
The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is explained by an even stepdown of labor supply and demand, meaning slowing labor force growth coincided with a slowdown in job growth.…
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
Published: January 6, 2026 02:00
The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from pre-World War II periods with tariff rate changes of a…
The Changing Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Oil Supply News
Published: December 16, 2025 02:00
A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on inflation, a central bank may choose to increase its policy rate, potentially reducing economic activity further. Changing interest…