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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
Signs of Cyclical Weakness in Part-Time Employment?
Published: November 4, 2025 02:00
Involuntary part-time employment—the share of people who work less than 35 hours per week but want and are available to work full-time—has increased since 2023. While this contrasts with steady declines during previous cyclical expansions, it is consistent…
Measuring Labor Market Similarities in Nearby Regions
Published: October 15, 2025 00:00
Labor market conditions are similar in regions that are near each other. This is called positive spatial correlation. Analyzing county-level data from 1990 to 2024 shows that commuting flows may contribute to strong spatial correlation in employment…
Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements
Published: October 7, 2025 00:00
Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have direct effects not only on companies in the sectors…
Steady Through Change: In Policy, Business, and Life
Published: September 30, 2025 00:00
Moving steadily through change takes intention, commitment to one’s goals, collecting evidence, and deciding. And most of all, it takes a commitment to be willing to repeat the process of anchoring, assessing, and deciding each time a new change comes…
Industry Decline and Household Finances
Published: September 23, 2025 00:00
Technological innovations that displace demand for local producers can hurt finances for households in the same area. Demand for Appalachian coal declined precipitously between 2011 and 2018 following a technology-induced shift in electricity generation…
Will Trade Uncertainty Boost Automation?
Published: September 3, 2025 02:00
Recent surges in trade policy uncertainty highlight the fragility of global supply chains, prompting businesses to consider reshoring—moving production from abroad to domestic locations. Reshoring can be costly, creating incentives for businesses to…
Tracking Labor Market Stress
Published: August 19, 2025 00:00
State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024,…
Tracking Business Sentiment in the Western United States
Published: August 12, 2025 00:00
Information the San Francisco Fed collects from businesses and community sources for the Beige Book provides timely insights into economic activity at both the national and regional levels. Two new indexes based on Beige Book questionnaire responses track…
The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases
Published: July 15, 2025 00:00
Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a resulting drop in overall U.S. employment, although…
The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk
Published: July 8, 2025 00:00
Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the perceived risk of interest rates returning to the zero…
Dynamic Central Bank Communication
Published: July 1, 2025 00:00
Central banks have a responsibility to share information in ways that improve the public’s understanding. This communication must be consistent enough that people can follow, and dynamic enough that it can adjust to the circumstances that are faced.…