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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge
Published: July 14, 2026 00:00
Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of professional forecasters during the pandemic-era inflation surge and moved closer to household expectations. Analyzing firms’ survey…
Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation
Published: July 7, 2026 00:00
A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that are experiencing consecutive positive or negative monthly…
Calibrating Monetary Policy
Published: June 30, 2026 00:00
The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff increases shows that preferred policy paths vary depending on…
Central Bank Bond Purchases and the Price of Safety
Published: June 23, 2026 00:00
Central banks purchase bonds and other securities with their own reserves. In doing so, they expand the supply of safe assets in the economy, which should lower the premium investors are willing to pay for safety. Analysis confirms that bond purchases by…
How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders
Published: June 2, 2026 00:00
U.S. labor force participation rose for decades until the mid-1990s but has fallen steadily since then. This general pattern masks different paths for men and women in the workforce. Aging and rising education explain much of the long-run changes but do…
Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?
Published: May 27, 2026 00:00
Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised…
Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?
Published: May 19, 2026 00:00
U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current…
AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy
Published: May 12, 2026 00:00
The business practice of adjusting prices using algorithms powered by artificial intelligence—known as AI pricing—has grown rapidly and spread across many sectors in the economy. Unlike traditional price setting, AI pricing uses predictive analysis of…
What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?
Published: May 5, 2026 00:00
Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s…
Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose
Published: April 14, 2026 00:00
Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work,…
Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation
Published: April 7, 2026 00:00
Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because…