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Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Site URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/
Feed URL: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economic-letter-rss-feed
Posts: 11
Followers: 1
Job Vacancies and Firms’ Labor Market Perceptions
Published: October 8, 2024 00:00
During the post-pandemic period, the vacancy-unemployment ratio was at historically high levels, but the strength of overall labor demand was unclear. Analysis using data from the National Federation of Independent Business on firms’ perceptions of the…
How Aware Is the Public of Labor Market Conditions?
Published: October 1, 2024 00:00
Consumers’ perceptions of labor market conditions have historically aligned closely with the unemployment rate. However, the two diverged during the pandemic, when the unemployment rate spiked while people’s views of the labor market remained more…
The Macroeconomic Impact of Cash Transfers in Brazil
Published: September 24, 2024 00:00
Cash transfers are important fiscal policy tools for both advanced and developing countries. A study of one of the world’s largest cash transfer programs—Brazil’s Bolsa Familia—highlights the potentially large, positive, and persistent effects on the…
When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down?
Published: September 4, 2024 00:00
Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly high. A key explanation is that, especially since the…
Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California
Published: August 27, 2024 00:00
Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis shows that distance from high fire-risk zones had little…
Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry
Published: August 13, 2024 00:00
Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed significantly by income group. While middle- and lower-income…
Bank Franchise as a Stabilizing Force
Published: August 6, 2024 00:00
The banking shock of 2023 stemmed from banks’ exposure to interest rate risk by gathering short-term funds to invest in long-term assets. When interest rates rose rapidly during the monetary tightening cycle, banks incurred significant capital losses on…
Recent Spike in Immigration and Easing Labor Markets
Published: July 16, 2024 00:00
The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO estimates with recent data points shows a continuing strong…
Breakeven Employment Growth
Published: July 9, 2024 00:00
Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment…
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality
Published: July 2, 2024 00:00
We’ve made a lot of progress in bringing down inflation, but there is more to do. We need to exhibit care and be ready to respond to however the economy evolves, balancing policy to protect full employment while restoring price stability. That is the…
Anatomy of the Post-Pandemic Monetary Tightening Cycle
Published: June 25, 2024 00:00
The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy rapidly between 2021 and 2023. In addition, a weekly proxy federal funds rate shows that markets perceived the policy stance as tightening significantly even in weeks without explicit policy changes. The proxy…