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Site URL: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Feed URL: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/feed
Posts: 12
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Update on U.S. government’s Soviet-style push for “gold standard science”
Published: September 4, 2026 13:43
We had a discussion last year: I got this email the other day from a journalist at a major news organization: I’m a science reporter from **, wondering if you’d have some time to talk/reflect on the Trump administration’s embrace … Continue reading →
Update on “I don’t understand this paper claiming election fraud in 2024 in Pennsylvania”
Published: September 3, 2026 20:11
Last year we briefly discussed a hard-to-follow paper by political scientist Walter Mebane discussing possible “malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” Carter Walker and Jessica Huseman at the election news site Votebeat followed up on this story,…
Updike and statistical writing; more on honesty and precision
Published: September 3, 2026 13:59
So, yeah, I’ve been reading more of these Updike stories. They’re really good, and there’s something extra you get from reading a lot of them at once. The different stories have a sameness of themes, settings, and tone, but that’s … Continue reading →
Confirmation bias in software testing, Walnutpie edition
Published: September 2, 2026 19:00
So, those exciting results I presented at StanCon about Walnutpie? Let’s pull back the curtain. Confirmation bias in testing Those stellar results were the result of a bug in the way we calculated R-hat and effective sample size in the … Continue reading →
Metascience corner: What can we learn from 12 million empirical research results?
Published: September 2, 2026 18:04
This is Witold and today we are building a bear. In our recent paper with Erik van Zwet and Andrew, A statistical case for qualified scientific optimism, we fit metascientific models that use hundreds of thousands of z-values from empirical … Continue…
Yale med school prof tells his postdocs: Work extra hours at my command or you’re no better than “the guy who charges me by the hour to cut my lawn.”
Published: September 2, 2026 13:58
I came across this opinion piece, “Postdocs Aren’t Burger Flippers: Why Unionization Is a Bad Idea,” by Yale medical school professor Evan Morris, who writes: Unfortunately, in 2026, postdoc unions are proliferating. And because of them, a key element of ……
Survey Statistics: logit shift and raking
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/01/survey-statistics-logit-shift-and-raking/
Published: September 1, 2026 20:00
We’ve been discussing how to use population margin information about poststratification variables (see Modeling Complex Contingency Tables and SynthMargins & Bayes-Raking). I want to connect two terms for this we’ve mentioned a lot in this series: the…
Updike’s kaleidoscope: Telling a life through a set of unconnected stories
Published: September 1, 2026 13:43
John Updike wrote around 250 short stories, the vast majority of which are from the perspective of the “Updike” character. As has been well documented, they’re based on himself, his family, and particular events that happened in his life. This … Continue…
I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data and doesn’t replicate.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/31/shocked/
Published: August 31, 2026 19:15
Dan Ariely—the much-decorated business school professor, retired Wall Street Journal columnist, Ted-talk star, NPR hero, Jeffrey Epstein contact, Founding Partner of Irrational Capital, insurance agent, inspiration for a hit TV sitcom, and author of the…
Do children grow continuously or do they grow in fits and starts?
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/31/fits-and-starts/
Published: August 31, 2026 13:54
There’s some literature on saltatory growth in children. From 1992: Saltation and Stasis: A Model of Human Growth, by Lampl, Veldhuis, and Johnson: From 1993: A case study of daily growth during adolescence: a single spurt or changes in the … Continue…
Coyote vs. Acme (also, for free, my take on The Odyssey)
Published: August 30, 2026 15:30
First, let’s get this one out of the way: my take on The Odyssey movie. It was brilliant, and I especially like how they handled the gods. It was clear that the gods were real—that storm after they kill the … Continue reading →
“Why did ANOVA fall out of fashion?”
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/29/why-did-anova-fall-out-of-fashion/
Published: August 29, 2026 13:07
A student asks the above question. My response: Anova is still important; it’s just been subsumed by hierarchical models. The link is to my 2005 paper, Analysis of variance: Why it is more important than ever, which begins: Analysis of … Continue reading →