Changepoint analysis using Stan
/blog/2024/03/03/changepoint-atlantic-recreation.html
Published: March 3, 2024 12:00
A chart from The Atlantic has made the rounds, going viral on Twitter.
🦜 Stephen Wild’s site | Stephen Wild’s personal blog about statistics, data science, and the like.
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Stephen Wild’s personal blog about statistics, data science, and the like.
Site URL: sjwild.github.io
Feed URL: sjwild.github.io/feed.xml
Posts: 9
Followers: 1
Bayesian synthetic control using Julia and Stan
/blog/2022/05/28/bayesian-synthetic-control.html
Published: May 28, 2022 12:00
Synthetic control is a very popular causal inference technique. In synthetic control, we take a group of control units and weight them to produce a synthetic, or counterfactual, treated unit. In plain english, we take our control group and use it to…
How correlated predictors inflate your standard errors
/blog/2022/01/28/how-correlated-predictors-inflate-standard-errors.html
Published: January 28, 2022 12:00
On Twitter, Nicolai Birk asks a very good question: Why are standard errors inflated when predictors are correlated?
Using Julia as a GIS to see who lives around you
/blog/2021/11/12/partisan-sorting.html
Published: November 12, 2021 01:00
Partisan sorting About a month and a half ago, we had an election in Canada (you can see my election forecast here). After some time went by, I tried to see if I could find the official results by polling division. I couldn’t. But I did find the 2019…
COVID-19 waves
/blog/2021/09/20/covid-19-waves-in-canada.html
Published: September 20, 2021 01:00
We’re in the fourth wave of COVID-19 here in Canada, so it made sense to me to see how things evolved. I thought I would use Julia to build a gif showing estimated COVID cases over time. You can find the full script here.
Always center your variables in multilevel models
/blog/2021/09/03/always-centre-variables-multilevel-model.html
Published: September 3, 2021 01:00
This is a post about why you should always center your variables in multilevel models. Always. And by always, I mean it depends. But I think as a default, you should center your variables in a multilevel model unless there is a strong reason to do…
Estimating Canadian vote intention with Julia and Turing, part II
/blog/2021/08/25/election-model-2021.html
Published: August 25, 2021 10:00
In this post I’m going to cover state space model I am using to estimate latent vote intention for the 2021 Canadian election. This model builds on the model in my last post, but it makes some extentions: It goes beyond the date of the 2019 election It…
Estimating Canadian vote intention with Julia and Turing
/blog/2021/08/07/state-space-vote-intention.html
Published: August 7, 2021 12:30
Rumour has it (okay, it’s in the news) that there might be a federal election called soon. Inspired by Simon Jackman, Peter Ellis, and others, I’ve decided to try election forecasting for no other reason than I can. You can find the code for this post…
Hello, world!
/blog/2021/07/28/hello-world.html
Published: July 28, 2021 01:30
Hello, world! If you search Google for a list of blogs related topics like statistics/econometrics, data science, surveys, R, Python, Julia, you will find thousands. So do we need another blog devoted to these topics? No. Is that going to stop me from…