RSS Parrot

It’s only July and with multiple major injuries in training camp, it already feels like the Carolina Panthers season is over. Ugh 😩

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080409710608719905#m

Published: July 23, 2026 21:48

It’s only July and with multiple major injuries in training camp, it already feels like the Carolina Panthers season is over. Ugh 😩

R to @WxTca: Minus the extratropical North Pacific, these “active” El Niño monsoon years here in southern New Mexico actually have a lot in common with this year’s global SSTa configuration

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080408075220201610#m

Published: July 23, 2026 21:41

Minus the extratropical North Pacific, these “active” El Niño monsoon years here in southern New Mexico actually have a lot in common with this year’s global SSTa configuration

R to @WxTca: Normally, the monsoon here wanes later in Aug and Sep, which should strengthen the East Pac Hadley cell The interaction w/ the N American Monsoon is likely part of the reason the East Pac szn peaks in late Aug, and I’d expect this yr to become anomalously more favorable by then

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080407322338496782#m

Published: July 23, 2026 21:38

Normally, the monsoon here wanes later in Aug and Sep, which should strengthen the East Pac Hadley cell The interaction w/ the N American Monsoon is likely part of the reason the East Pac szn peaks in late Aug, and I’d expect this yr to become anomalously…

R to @WxTca: This year’s monsoon has been a fairly strong so far in the Desert SW, with the last few weeks being particularly active in Arizona. Our June-September to date “thunderstorm days” in/around El Paso are nearly in the top 5 since 1973 👀

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080405640774914241#m

Published: July 23, 2026 21:32

This year’s monsoon has been a fairly strong so far in the Desert SW, with the last few weeks being particularly active in Arizona. Our June-September to date “thunderstorm days” in/around El Paso are nearly in the top 5 since 1973 👀

R to @webberweather: When you plot the 4-week rolling avg ACE anoms in the East Pac via @WxTca’s site for above avg El Nino monsoons here in southern NM, the early season suppression signal is clear. The -ACE anomalies line up well w/ the climo peak of our monsoon season https://tcalert.github.io/cycloweb/#tab=ersst&er-month=7&er-years=2006%2C+1991%2C+1972%2C+1986%2C+1997%2C+2004%2C+1987%2C+2015&er-type=anomalies

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080405001181298705#m

Published: July 23, 2026 21:29

When you plot the 4-week rolling avg ACE anoms in the East Pac via @WxTca’s site for above avg El Nino monsoons here in southern NM, the early season suppression signal is clear. The -ACE anomalies line up well w/ the climo peak of our monsoon season …

R to @webberweather: I have suspicion the strong Desert SW monsoon this yr is helping curb activity (for now) in the E Pac. Normally, a robust Desert SW monsoon invokes a strong/poleward shifted high on the Rockies. This can lead to Hadley Cell stretching & more dry air intrusions into the East Pac

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080404066958807159#m

Published: July 23, 2026 21:25

I have suspicion the strong Desert SW monsoon this yr is helping curb activity (for now) in the E Pac. Normally, a robust Desert SW monsoon invokes a strong/poleward shifted high on the Rockies. This can lead to Hadley Cell stretching & more dry air…

The somewhat slower-than-expected start to the East Pacific hurricane season this yer is intriguing While it’s not surprising to some extent given the developing Super El Niño which can suppress the ITCZ early on, I suspect some other intriguing factors are also playing a role

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2080389656483693020#m

Published: July 23, 2026 20:28

The somewhat slower-than-expected start to the East Pacific hurricane season this yer is intriguing While it’s not surprising to some extent given the developing Super El Niño which can suppress the ITCZ early on, I suspect some other intriguing factors…

RT by @webberweather: With recon starting to find some stronger winds on the SE side, #Bertha wants to make a run at joining her twin #Barry as the ugliest hurricanes (or is it a halficane?) in Atlantic history.

https://nitter.poast.org/AndyHazelton/status/2079547111788400732#m

Published: July 21, 2026 12:40

With recon starting to find some stronger winds on the SE side, #Bertha wants to make a run at joining her twin #Barry as the ugliest hurricanes (or is it a halficane?) in Atlantic history. Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) I think TS #Bertha might be…

What a piece of garbage 🤢 #Bertha Can’t imagine wanting to chase this for some stratocumulus clouds on the Gulf Coast.

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2079536733910442039#m

Published: July 21, 2026 11:59

What a piece of garbage 🤢 #Bertha Can’t imagine wanting to chase this for some stratocumulus clouds on the Gulf Coast.

R to @webberweather: Also note how closely the overall wave pattern resembles the high, El Nino-like Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) + El Nino-like Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) composite pattern in summer (right) via @dgoldweather’s site https://gsdmsolutions.com

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078685230848954648#m

Published: July 19, 2026 03:35

Also note how closely the overall wave pattern resembles the high, El Nino-like Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) + El Nino-like Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) composite pattern in summer (right) via @dgoldweather’s site gsdmsolutions.com

The fingerprints of El Nino are all over the current pattern that’s forcing the Canadian wildfires & Texas floods. Notice the wave activity flux vector anomalies (left, vectors) emanating from convective heating anomalies in the NE Tropical Pacific (left, blue shading).

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078684749003124801#m

Published: July 19, 2026 03:33

The fingerprints of El Nino are all over the current pattern that’s forcing the Canadian wildfires & Texas floods. Notice the wave activity flux vector anomalies (left, vectors) emanating from convective heating anomalies in the NE Tropical Pacific (left,…

R to @webberweather: This means that wind stress and cold advection from passing Rossby Waves in winter won't be as effective at cooling SSTs there as warm water below the mixed layer "re-emerges" to the surface, maintaining the -PDO-like signature in the extratropical North Pacific.

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078663544808354015#m

Published: July 19, 2026 02:09

This means that wind stress and cold advection from passing Rossby Waves in winter won't be as effective at cooling SSTs there as warm water below the mixed layer "re-emerges" to the surface, maintaining the -PDO-like signature in the extratropical North…

R to @webberweather: Another factor in favor of a prolonged Nina-like/-PDO state is the incredible warmth at depth within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension east of Japan https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078663371629748243#m

Published: July 19, 2026 02:09

Another factor in favor of a prolonged Nina-like/-PDO state is the incredible warmth at depth within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension east of Japan cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G…

R to @webberweather: Inter-basin warming of the Atlantic & Indian Oceans is also more pronounced after "Super" Niños like this, which has been shown by many modeling & observational studies to strengthen the trade winds in the Pacific >> reinforcing & prolonging the Nina-like/-PDO state afterwards

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078662246696435978#m

Published: July 19, 2026 02:04

Inter-basin warming of the Atlantic & Indian Oceans is also more pronounced after "Super" Niños like this, which has been shown by many modeling & observational studies to strengthen the trade winds in the Pacific >> reinforcing & prolonging the…

R to @webberweather: Also think the cold PDO comes back w/ vengeance. Trying to flip the PDO in a "Super" El Niño often backfires because the jet extension in winter is too far east (& hence so is the wind stress forcing that cools the extratropical North Pacific).

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078661516635914487#m

Published: July 19, 2026 02:01

Also think the cold PDO comes back w/ vengeance. Trying to flip the PDO in a "Super" El Niño often backfires because the jet extension in winter is too far east (& hence so is the wind stress forcing that cools the extratropical North Pacific).

Imho, after our developing "Super" El Niño collapses later in 2027, we're probably going to be in the cold phase of ENSO (La Nina or cool neutral) for basically the remainder of the 2020s.

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078660898269573511#m

Published: July 19, 2026 01:59

Imho, after our developing "Super" El Niño collapses later in 2027, we're probably going to be in the cold phase of ENSO (La Nina or cool neutral) for basically the remainder of the 2020s.

Even utilizing the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), the NINO 3.4 region SSTa this yr are only rivaled by the 1997-98 "El Niño of the Century" 👀 Our developing "Super" El Niño has exhibited the biggest SSTa build-up/rise since the beginning of the year in the satellite era

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078647146593873959#m

Published: July 19, 2026 01:04

Even utilizing the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), the NINO 3.4 region SSTa this yr are only rivaled by the 1997-98 "El Niño of the Century" 👀 Our developing "Super" El Niño has exhibited the biggest SSTa build-up/rise since the beginning of the year…

R to @webberweather: Datasets used to update ENS ONI this month can be found here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe2.html https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/ https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/ https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/index.html https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/SST_GLO_SST_L4_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_010_001/description https://neo.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MYD28M&year=2026 https://pae-paha.pacioos.hawaii.edu/erddap/griddap/dhw_5km.html https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078608690782052793#m

Published: July 18, 2026 22:31

Datasets used to update ENS ONI this month can be found here: psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/da… ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/e… metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hads… metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadi… cds.climate.copernicus.eu data.marine.copernicus.eu/pr……

R to @webberweather: Also want to note, that this year marks the first time we've ever crossed the 29C mark during the northern summer (JJA) in the NINO 3.4 region.

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078607171999375405#m

Published: July 18, 2026 22:25

Also want to note, that this year marks the first time we've ever crossed the 29C mark during the northern summer (JJA) in the NINO 3.4 region.

I've updated the Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) ENS ONI value of +0.97C was the 9th highest in AMJ since 1850, indicative of a strong El Niño via ranks The latest monthly ENS ONI value of +1.45C was the highest on record for Jun https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2078552017891741921#m

Published: July 18, 2026 18:46

I've updated the Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) ENS ONI value of +0.97C was the 9th highest in AMJ since 1850, indicative of a strong El Niño via ranks The latest monthly ENS ONI value of +1.45C was the highest on record for Jun …

RT by @webberweather: The wildfire situation across North America just got worse. Tens of thousands of lightning strikes across the Pacific Northwest has ignited dozens of new wildfires across Oregon and Washington.

https://nitter.poast.org/US_Stormwatch/status/2077889951493210237#m

Published: July 16, 2026 22:55

The wildfire situation across North America just got worse. Tens of thousands of lightning strikes across the Pacific Northwest has ignited dozens of new wildfires across Oregon and Washington. Video

RT by @webberweather: A very interesting research paper published today by Anthony Lyza and Matthew Flournoy on the how a decreased frequency of intense tornadoes in the United States is the result of a modern day application of the EF scale. Highly recommend a read: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/aop/JAMC-D-25-0244.1/JAMC-D-25-0244.1.xml

https://nitter.poast.org/Gio_wx/status/2077848721140707361#m

Published: July 16, 2026 20:11

A very interesting research paper published today by Anthony Lyza and Matthew Flournoy on the how a decreased frequency of intense tornadoes in the United States is the result of a modern day application of the EF scale. Highly recommend a read:…

Hot take: we should stay on standard time the entire year. Standard time is better

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2077755788358275501#m

Published: July 16, 2026 14:02

Hot take: we should stay on standard time the entire year. Standard time is better

RT by @webberweather: the discourse on double-u ex twitter today

https://nitter.poast.org/wxmann/status/2077491909761892696#m

Published: July 15, 2026 20:34

the discourse on double-u ex twitter today

Lol no. An upper-level ridge is quite literally a "heat dome", you can see this pretty clearly on any pv x-section through said ridge. Notice the 2PVU surface (dashed line between yellow & blue shading) bulges upward over the ridge on the Rockies. That is in fact a "heat dome"

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2077410119906894071#m

Published: July 15, 2026 15:09

Lol no. An upper-level ridge is quite literally a "heat dome", you can see this pretty clearly on any pv x-section through said ridge. Notice the 2PVU surface (dashed line between yellow & blue shading) bulges upward over the ridge on the Rockies. That…

R to @webberweather: We have seen this type of springtime ENSO evolution play out in the 1982-83 & 1997-98 Super El Ninos. I suspect this year’s Super El Nino will follow suit because of how incredible the thermocline suppression is in the East Pacific with this event.

https://nitter.poast.org/webberweather/status/2077378569886687335#m

Published: July 15, 2026 13:03

We have seen this type of springtime ENSO evolution play out in the 1982-83 & 1997-98 Super El Ninos. I suspect this year’s Super El Nino will follow suit because of how incredible the thermocline suppression is in the East Pacific with this event.

RT by @webberweather: Aparece el wahoo frente a #Lima. Rarísimo. Se le pescó en tiempos de #ElNiño en 1983 según me comenta una fuente confiable en este tipo de pesca.

https://nitter.poast.org/hombredeltiempo/status/2077342922207347187#m

Published: July 15, 2026 10:42

Aparece el wahoo frente a #Lima. Rarísimo. Se le pescó en tiempos de #ElNiño en 1983 según me comenta una fuente confiable en este tipo de pesca.