RSS Parrot

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with Lacy Hunt🔽 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Scr5YXYJGzo

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2091986364782788715#m

Published: August 24, 2026 20:29

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with Lacy Hunt🔽 youtube.com/watch?v=Scr5YXYJ…

The Deflationary Era Is Over — Is Inflation The New Normal? Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Lacy Hunt and @AdamTaggart discuss a major shift in Hunt’s macro outlook: why the forces that produced decades of disinflation are fading, and why inflation may now be the more persistent risk. * For years, Hunt emphasized the disinflationary consequences of excessive debt. As debt rises, more income must be devoted to interest expense, leaving less available for consumption and productive investment. That mechanism still exists, but Hunt now believes he gave it too much credit for the disinflation of the previous era. * The bigger force was the extraordinary expansion of global productive capacity. As the global production function expanded and aggregate supply shifted outward, the world could produce dramatically more goods at lower costs. Combined with the demand-dampening effects of debt, this created a powerful disinflationary environment. * Hunt now says his earlier interpretation was incomplete: “I attributed the movement to the debt, and it was not the debt, it was the production function.” Today, he believes that process is reversing. Instead of global aggregate supply continuing to shift outward, it is shifting inward. The global production function is deteriorating, while shortages of capital are making it harder to expand productive capacity. * Debt remains disinflationary because high interest costs constrain spending and growth. But Hunt believes these effects are now being overwhelmed by the inflationary consequences of capital scarcity and weaker global supply. * Another warning sign is America’s extraordinarily low net national saving rate. Historically, Hunt says it has averaged close to 7%. Today it is less than 1%, approaching levels seen during some of the most economically stressed periods of the past century. That matters because physical investment ultimately has to be financed by saving. Without sufficient national saving, there is less real capital available to build factories, infrastructure, equipment, energy capacity and other productive assets needed to increase future supply. * And the Federal Reserve cannot simply print its way out of that problem. The Fed can increase the money supply, but it cannot manufacture real saved capital or productive capacity. In an economy already facing rising energy and other input costs, additional monetary expansion could instead facilitate the pass-through of those costs into consumer prices, worsening inflation. * The key takeaway is a profound change in the macro regime. The deflationary impact of excessive debt hasn’t disappeared. But the global supply expansion that helped dominate the previous era has. If Hunt is right, capital scarcity, inadequate savings and a deteriorating global production function could overwhelm debt’s disinflationary effects — leaving investors in a world where inflation is not simply a temporary shock, but a more structural feature of the economic landscape. #inflation 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lacy Hunt by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2091986361775456552#m

Published: August 24, 2026 20:29

The Deflationary Era Is Over — Is Inflation The New Normal? Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Lacy Hunt and @AdamTaggart discuss a major shift in Hunt’s macro outlook: why the forces that produced decades of…

Bond yields have risen so far so quickly that the US Treasury is now stepping in to contain the long end of the curve @fleckcap now claims this is "crunch time" for the bond market So, which assets is he sitting in right now? WATCH: https://youtu.be/jC_iuOwQAI8

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2091541028126015906#m

Published: August 23, 2026 15:00

Bond yields have risen so far so quickly that the US Treasury is now stepping in to contain the long end of the curve @fleckcap now claims this is "crunch time" for the bond market So, which assets is he sitting in right now? WATCH:…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @JonathanWellum 🔽

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2091243997226307632#m

Published: August 22, 2026 19:19

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @JonathanWellum 🔽 Thoughtful Money® (@thoughtfulmoney) Trust is breaking the world over,…

Why This Metals Cycle Could Be Structural, Not Speculative $GLD $SLV $COPX Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @JonathanWellum and @AdamTaggart examine why the current metals cycle could be structural rather than simply another speculative boom — and why the long-term case for gold, silver and copper may remain intact despite the recent correction. * Precious metals became extremely frothy during last year’s blockbuster run, so some of that excess needed to come out. And it did. Now the price action appears more constructive, raising the possibility that a meaningful base is forming. But the bigger argument isn’t about calling the exact bottom. It’s about what the supply-demand picture could look like over the next 3–5 years. Silver and copper face significant structural deficits while demand remains relatively inelastic and continues to grow. Both are essential inputs for electrification, infrastructure and the broader technological buildout. If that transformation continues, the world is going to need substantially more of these metals. * Copper illustrates the challenge particularly well. Large new mines can take a decade to discover, permit, finance and develop, meaning supply cannot quickly respond to higher demand. An estimated $250 billion of additional investment may be needed in copper mining over the coming years. That combination of constrained supply, long development timelines and rising consumption could provide an unusually strong fundamental floor for prices. * There is also a monetary dimension to the metals thesis. With global debt estimated around 350% of GDP, some degree of inflation or currency debasement may ultimately be part of how that debt burden is managed. Scarce real assets could therefore benefit not only from physical shortages but also from concerns about the long-term purchasing power of money. * Gold has another role entirely. Central banks continue accumulating it, suggesting gold is becoming increasingly important within the global monetary system. This doesn’t necessarily imply a return to a gold standard. Instead, it reflects something more fundamental: declining trust. When countries trust each other less, they want collateral without counterparty risk. Gold remains one of the few globally recognized reserve assets that does not depend on another government’s promise to pay. * The obvious counterargument is history. Gold and silver have experienced vertical, speculative runs before — most notably around 1980 and 2011 — followed by major corrections and long periods of disappointing returns. Could this be another version of the same story? The argument against that outcome is that today’s structural fundamentals may be considerably stronger. Copper and silver aren't merely speculative assets; the global economy physically needs more of them, while new supply is difficult and expensive to develop. Gold, meanwhile, is being supported by central-bank demand and a changing global monetary landscape. * None of this means metals move straight higher. Volatility and significant corrections should be expected. That’s why the strategy isn’t to chase metals when they're running. It’s to take a disciplined approach, dollar-cost average into high-conviction opportunities and focus on the 3–5 year fundamentals. The froth can disappear without the structural thesis disappearing with it. #gold #silver #copper 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @JonathanWellum by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2091243993812087113#m

Published: August 22, 2026 19:19

Why This Metals Cycle Could Be Structural, Not Speculative $GLD $SLV $COPX Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @JonathanWellum and @AdamTaggart examine why the current metals cycle could be structural rather…

After a rip-roaring rally that began in April, sending the market to all-time highs, the S&P is now cooling off Is this just a short pause before the rally resumes? Probably not, says @LanceRoberts who expects stocks to be weak until the midterms WATCH: https://youtu.be/Ol6atEUHsSI

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2091173975342891444#m

Published: August 22, 2026 14:41

After a rip-roaring rally that began in April, sending the market to all-time highs, the S&P is now cooling off Is this just a short pause before the rally resumes? Probably not, says @LanceRoberts who expects stocks to be weak until the midterms WATCH:…

The AI Trade Is Underpricing China Risk Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Peter Tchir @TFMkts and @AdamTaggart discuss a risk Peter believes the AI trade may be significantly underpricing: China’s ability to compete not necessarily by building the absolute best AI models, but by making capable AI dramatically cheaper. * The AI industry is still trying to prove its economic model. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier developers are spending enormous amounts on models, chips, data centers and electricity while increasingly relying on enterprise customers and usage-based pricing to monetize that investment. But corporations are discovering that token and compute costs can rise quickly as AI usage scales. * At the same time, Chinese models are getting closer to Western frontier capabilities at a fraction of the cost. That creates a straightforward incentive: companies can reserve expensive frontier models for their most complex tasks while using cheaper alternatives for everything else. * The bigger question is what happens if LLMs eventually converge toward roughly similar capabilities. If most models become “good enough” for most workloads, AI could increasingly compete on price rather than absolute intelligence. That would put pressure on the economics of companies spending billions to maintain the frontier. * China may also have structural advantages in that competition: a huge engineering base, the ability to scale cheaper chips, fewer obstacles to building power and infrastructure, and the capacity to coordinate resources around strategic priorities. DeepSeek may have looked like a one-off, but the greater risk is that it represents the beginning of a broader push toward lower-cost Chinese AI. * There’s also an important data-security consideration. Corporations attracted by cheaper models need to think carefully about where proprietary information is going and how it could ultimately be used. * For investors, however, the biggest issue is valuation. A huge share of U.S. market capitalization is now directly or indirectly tied to AI, while the data-center and infrastructure buildout has become an increasingly important source of CapEx. The market is effectively assuming that the extraordinary amount of money being invested today will eventually earn attractive returns. But technological success and investment success are not the same thing. * If Chinese competition drives down the price of AI while Western compute and infrastructure costs remain high, pricing power and returns on AI CapEx could disappoint. And given how much of the market now depends on the AI investment cycle, that could become much more than a sector-specific problem. * The AI boom may ultimately deliver extraordinary technology but the question investors need to ask is whether today’s valuations adequately account for who will actually capture the profits. #DeepSeek #AIbubble #OpenAI #Anthropic 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Peter Tchir @TFMkts by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090862362249035928#m

Published: August 21, 2026 18:03

The AI Trade Is Underpricing China Risk Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Peter Tchir @TFMkts and @AdamTaggart discuss a risk Peter believes the AI trade may be significantly underpricing: China’s ability to…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with Peter Tchir @TFMkts 🔽

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090862365394780400#m

Published: August 21, 2026 18:03

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with Peter Tchir @TFMkts 🔽 Thoughtful Money® (@thoughtfulmoney) Peter Tchir @TFMkts is shocked…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @LanceRoberts 🔽

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090528394278469942#m

Published: August 20, 2026 19:56

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @LanceRoberts 🔽 Thoughtful Money® (@thoughtfulmoney) Stocks are now "stuck" in a trading…

The Dangerous Part Of The AI Boom Is Here Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart discuss why the dangerous part of the AI boom may be starting now. AI appears to be real, but as the massive infrastructure buildout eventually slows, the market will have to separate companies with durable businesses and real cash flows from those that depend almost entirely on continued AI spending. * The key is to let the fundamentals tell the story. If AI turns out to be massively overhyped, investors won’t have to guess. Eventually it will show up in operating revenues, earnings, cash flows and returns on the enormous amounts of capital being invested. Until then, betting against AI also means betting against some of the best capital allocators in the world: $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AMZN. These companies have repeatedly survived technological disruptions that were supposedly going to destroy them. More importantly, their businesses don’t depend entirely on AI. * Take AI away from Google and you still have Search, YouTube and advertising generating enormous revenue. Microsoft still has its enterprise software and cloud ecosystem. Amazon still has e-commerce and AWS. If necessary, these companies could slow AI CapEx and allow significantly more free cash flow to flow through their existing businesses. * That’s very different from what happens as you move further out on the risk curve into neoclouds $NBIS $IREN $CRWV and specialized AI infrastructure providers. The current AI infrastructure buildout won’t continue forever. Lance believes this phase could largely run its course over roughly the next 18 months. Once the data centers are built, the story shifts from constructing AI capacity to actually generating sustainable revenue from that capacity. * And the companies that benefit from the buildout may not be the companies that win the monetization phase. That’s where the dangerous part begins. $CRWV is a good example. Its business is heavily dependent on AI demand and concentrated around a major customer. If AI demand disappoints or a critical customer pulls back, it doesn’t have the same diversified cash-generating businesses to fall back on. * The dot-com era provides the blueprint. The internet was absolutely real, yet countless internet companies disappeared. $AAPL, Amazon and Microsoft were hit hard too, but they survived, strengthened their businesses and ultimately became dominant companies. AI could follow the same path. The question isn’t simply whether AI is a bubble. AI can transform the economy while many AI stocks still fail. For investors, the real question is which companies have durable moats, real revenues and enough existing cash generation to survive when the AI investment cycle turns. AI may survive and transform the economy. Many of today’s AI companies may not. #AIbubble #hyperscalers Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @LanceRoberts by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090528389106909452#m

Published: August 20, 2026 19:56

The Dangerous Part Of The AI Boom Is Here Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart discuss why the dangerous part of the AI boom may be starting now. AI appears to be real, but as the…

HEADS UP: Today's video will air in the evening (around 7pmET) It will be a discussion with Lacy Hunt & Brent Johnson

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090449975381725455#m

Published: August 20, 2026 14:44

HEADS UP: Today's video will air in the evening (around 7pmET) It will be a discussion with Lacy Hunt & Brent Johnson

The Fed Is Trapped — And Gold Knows It $GLD #gold Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Andy Schectman @ASchectman and @AdamTaggart discuss why the breakout in gold and #silver $SLV may have real legs — and why the most important signal isn’t simply that precious metals are rising, but that they’re doing it despite higher interest rates and higher oil prices. * Normally, rising Treasury yields should be a headwind for gold. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and should attract global capital into U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. But that’s not what’s happening. Yields are rising. Gold is rising. And the dollar is falling. Andy sees that combination as a potential warning that investors are demanding higher yields to own U.S. government debt rather than viewing those yields as an increasingly attractive safe-haven return. In other words, this could be less about economic strength and more about declining confidence in Treasuries. * That leads to the bigger thesis: the Fed may be trapped. Years of suppressed interest rates created distortions in asset prices, capital allocation and leverage. Allow rates to rise too far, and those vulnerabilities begin to surface. But cap yields or inject liquidity to keep the financial system stable, and the pressure doesn’t disappear — it can instead show up through higher inflation and a weaker currency. * Andy argues that the era of genuine balance-sheet normalization may already be over. He points to roughly $40 billion per month of liquidity/purchases and what he views as de facto yield-curve control through efforts to prevent Japan from selling Treasuries. * Meanwhile, #crudeoil adds another problem. Higher energy prices eventually feed through transportation, manufacturing, food and other costs, and Andy argues that the full inflationary impact can take roughly six months to appear. That may explain why gold is moving now. His view is that sophisticated traders are “skating to where the puck is going”: front-running the possibility that policymakers ultimately cannot allow rates to keep rising and will eventually have to suppress yields or provide additional liquidity. * That’s why the current relationship matters so much: – Treasury yields up – Gold up – Dollar down If higher yields alone were restoring confidence in U.S. assets, gold should face much stronger competition from Treasuries. Instead, precious metals continue to attract buyers. * And Andy sees another major difference versus the 2011 gold peak: persistent record buying by major strategic players. That structural demand gives him more confidence that this isn’t simply a dead-cat bounce. * Bottom line: Andy believes this is a real breakout. Gold may be front-running a world in which the Fed faces an increasingly difficult choice between allowing rates to rise and exposing financial vulnerabilities, or suppressing rates and risking even greater inflationary pressure. The Fed is trapped — and gold may already know which way this ends. #yields $TLT $BND 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Andy Schectman by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090130191448457461#m

Published: August 19, 2026 17:34

The Fed Is Trapped — And Gold Knows It $GLD #gold Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Andy Schectman @ASchectman and @AdamTaggart discuss why the breakout in gold and #silver $SLV may have real legs — and why…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with Andy Schectman 🔽 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj7LeFOCCZ0

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090130195202093109#m

Published: August 19, 2026 17:34

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with Andy Schectman 🔽 youtube.com/watch?v=Mj7LeFOC…

NOTE: today's video will launch 90 min later than normal It will be a livestream with the team at @NewHarborFin and will take place at 12:30pmET/9:30amPT Here's the link to it: https://youtube.com/live/CGhpoxFv23s

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2090086870298587199#m

Published: August 19, 2026 14:41

NOTE: today's video will launch 90 min later than normal It will be a livestream with the team at @NewHarborFin and will take place at 12:30pmET/9:30amPT Here's the link to it: youtube.com/live/CGhpoxFv23s

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @EdZitron🔽

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2089805458802413706#m

Published: August 18, 2026 20:03

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @EdZitron🔽 Thoughtful Money® (@thoughtfulmoney) Are the financial markets are in an AI…

The Stock Market Has An OpenAI & Anthropic Problem Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @EdZitron and @AdamTaggart discuss a potentially massive vulnerability hiding beneath the AI boom: the future growth of the stock market’s biggest companies is becoming increasingly dependent on OpenAI and Anthropic continuing to spend extraordinary amounts of money on compute. * The numbers Ed highlights are staggering. Analyst estimates suggest 76% of $MSFT revenue growth through 2028 could come from Azure and Intelligent Cloud, which is increasingly tied to OpenAI’s compute spending. UBS estimates that by 2027, 48% of $GOOGL Cloud revenue could come from OpenAI and Anthropic. That creates an enormous concentration risk. * The problem isn’t simply whether OpenAI and Anthropic can afford today’s AI infrastructure. They may need to spend more than $200 billion on compute next year, potentially rising toward $300–400 billion in the future. At the same time, these companies are burning enormous amounts of cash and remain dependent on outside capital. * For the current AI investment cycle to work, Ed argues OpenAI and Anthropic may effectively need to become Microsoft- and Google-sized businesses by 2030 while also achieving very high margins and profitability. If they can’t, the consequences could spread throughout the entire AI ecosystem. * Less capital available to OpenAI and Anthropic means less compute spending. That means slower cloud growth for Microsoft, Google and $AMZN. Lower infrastructure demand then hits $NVDA, which flows through to Taiwanese manufacturers such as Foxconn and potentially into the broader Taiwanese market. * Then comes the valuation problem. If #Nvidia and the hyperscalers stop delivering hypergrowth, investors may no longer be willing to value them as perpetual growth machines. Multiple compression across the companies that have driven so much of the U.S. stock market could have enormous consequences for the indexes themselves. * The risk extends to Japan as well. Ed points to SoftBank and major Japanese banks with exposure to the AI/data-center ecosystem. SoftBank in particular could depend heavily on eventually turning its OpenAI stake into liquidity. If OpenAI cannot successfully go public or its valuation falls substantially, another important link in the financial chain comes under pressure. * And even if OpenAI and Anthropic ultimately succeed, Ed believes the industry may have already overbuilt AI capacity by roughly 10x. That’s the key point: AI doesn’t have to fail technologically for the AI investment boom to become a financial problem. The technology can succeed while the amount of capital, infrastructure and future growth built around it proves unsustainable. * Adam asks the obvious question: if this chain starts breaking, could markets realistically fall 50%? Ed’s answer: yes. #AIbubble #OpenAI #Anthropic 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @EdZitron by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2089805454721552424#m

Published: August 18, 2026 20:03

The Stock Market Has An OpenAI & Anthropic Problem Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @EdZitron and @AdamTaggart discuss a potentially massive vulnerability hiding beneath the AI boom: the future growth of the…

Trust is breaking the world over, as evidenced by de-globalization & central banks preferring gold over any country's financial assets In such an era, collateral you CAN trust becomes key, says @JonathanWellum To learn which ones he favors now, watch: https://youtu.be/wYq3BCb874A

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2089729526012285312#m

Published: August 18, 2026 15:01

Trust is breaking the world over, as evidenced by de-globalization & central banks preferring gold over any country's financial assets In such an era, collateral you CAN trust becomes key, says @JonathanWellum To learn which ones he favors now, watch:…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @DariusDale42 🔽

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2089452840980807680#m

Published: August 17, 2026 20:42

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com Full episode of this interview with @DariusDale42 🔽 Thoughtful Money® (@thoughtfulmoney) My friend @DariusDale42 projects a…

The Treasury May Have Just Saved The Market From A 20% Correction Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @DariusDale42 and @AdamTaggart discuss why the Treasury may have just significantly reduced the risk of a major 20% market correction this fall. * The broader outlook for risk assets remains structurally bullish, supported by the macro backdrop and liquidity cycle. But the next 2–4 months could become much more challenging as we approach the September–October FOMC meetings. The key risk is a reversal in monetary conditions. If the Fed raises rates and tightens its balance sheet while the liquidity cycle shifts from a modest tailwind to a headwind, the setup could start resembling the summer of 1998. Back then, the market rallied roughly 21% into July before suffering a nearly 20% correction, giving back the entire advance and more. But that wasn't the end of the bull market: stocks subsequently surged roughly 27% and finished the year strongly higher. * That kind of sharp correction followed by a powerful recovery has been one of the more plausible scenarios for 2026. But the latest Treasury financing plans may have changed the equation. * The federal government is projected to borrow $739 billion in Q3, with $409 billion coming through Treasury bills, alongside another $45 billion in Treasury buybacks. This means a much larger share of government financing will come through shorter-duration bills rather than longer-term notes and bonds. Why does that matter? A bill-heavy financing strategy can reduce pressure on the long end of the Treasury market and help support financial conditions. Combined with Treasury buybacks, it could partially offset the tightening effects of Fed policy. Dale's interpretation is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may effectively be supporting financial markets while giving Kevin Warsh more room to tighten monetary policy. * That creates an unusual dynamic: the Fed could be tightening while Treasury policy simultaneously provides liquidity support. If that works, the market may avoid the 1998-style September–October correction altogether and continue trending higher through year-end. So the key question isn't simply whether the Fed tightens. It's whether Treasury's financing strategy can offset enough of that tightening to stabilize the bond market, preserve liquidity and keep the equity bull market alive. #marketcorrection #Fed #bondmarket 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @DariusDale42 by visiting my Substack (link below)⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2089452837822484704#m

Published: August 17, 2026 20:42

The Treasury May Have Just Saved The Market From A 20% Correction Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @DariusDale42 and @AdamTaggart discuss why the Treasury may have just significantly reduced the risk of a…