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Mike Green @profplum99 is famous for his working showing the Giant Mindless Robot of passive capital flows has been driving the secular bull market in stocks But now he sees signs it's starting to weaken What will that mean for the future? WATCH: https://youtu.be/OV-8DSTzwKM

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2056023816145617362#m

Published: May 17, 2026 14:47

Mike Green @profplum99 is famous for his working showing the Giant Mindless Robot of passive capital flows has been driving the secular bull market in stocks But now he sees signs it's starting to weaken What will that mean for the future? WATCH:…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ⬇️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2055796895562551744#m

Published: May 16, 2026 23:45

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ⬇️ adamtaggart.substack.com

AI CapEx Risk: There’s Nowhere Left To Hide $SOXX $SMH $AMD $INTC $MRVL $NVDA $TSM In this Short video, @CameronDawson and @AdamTaggart discuss a major structural risk building beneath the current market rally: the AI CapEx boom has become so dominant that it is no longer confined to semiconductors — it now effectively underpins large portions of the entire global equity market. If AI spending expectations weaken materially, the damage would likely extend far beyond chip stocks because nearly every major index has become deeply tied to the same theme. Right now, markets are pricing in a future in which hyperscalers, enterprises, and governments continue to spend enormous amounts on AI hardware, data centers, networking, memory, and compute capacity. But if this demand was “pulled forward” too aggressively — meaning companies spent years’ worth of future demand upfront — the industry could eventually hit a wall, with growth slowing sharply. Another risk would be tighter credit conditions or reduced access to financing, which could suddenly constrain this capital-intensive buildout. If that happens, semiconductors would likely feel the pain first, as they are at the center of the AI ecosystem. But the rest of the market could also suffer heavily, as semiconductors now account for an unprecedented share of equity indices and investment flows. Ten years ago, semiconductors represented only about 2% of $SPX. Today, that figure has exploded to roughly 18%. This is more than double the weighting semiconductors had even at the peak of the late-1990s tech bubble. The market today is more concentrated in semiconductor exposure than at any point in modern history. But this exposure goes even deeper than chips themselves. The AI trade has expanded into adjacent technology hardware companies, industrial suppliers, infrastructure plays, and hyperscalers, funding the CapEx cycle. The broader market implication is that diversification has become much harder than investors realize. During the original tech bubble unwind, investors could rotate into areas with limited exposure to technology. Emerging markets, value stocks, small caps, and mid caps all offered alternative places to hide because they were not deeply connected to the bursting internet bubble. This time is very different. The AI exposure has infiltrated virtually every major asset class and index, becoming the “tide” lifting nearly every boat in the market. That creates a very important systemic risk: if the AI cycle weakens, the downside could ripple through nearly every corner of the market simultaneously, as the same dominant theme supports so many sectors and indices at once. * Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @CameronDawson by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2055796842781405268#m

Published: May 16, 2026 23:45

AI CapEx Risk: There’s Nowhere Left To Hide $SOXX $SMH $AMD $INTC $MRVL $NVDA $TSM In this Short video, @CameronDawson and @AdamTaggart discuss a major structural risk building beneath the current market rally: the AI CapEx boom has become so dominant…

Stocks are looking increasingly vulnerable, while at the same time bond yields are surging Is the weakness we saw on Friday the start of the pullback many have been expecting? @LanceRoberts & I discuss in this week's Market Recap WATCH: https://youtu.be/JoP0ydUoatA

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2055663814071472317#m

Published: May 16, 2026 14:57

Stocks are looking increasingly vulnerable, while at the same time bond yields are surging Is the weakness we saw on Friday the start of the pullback many have been expecting? @LanceRoberts & I discuss in this week's Market Recap WATCH:…

Thoughtful Money's YouTube channel has clocked another month of 1.5 million views That's an impressive amount of people around the world engaging in improving their financial literacy We quite literally can't succeed like this without your supportive viewership -- thank you!!

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2055478630135021797#m

Published: May 16, 2026 02:41

Thoughtful Money's YouTube channel has clocked another month of 1.5 million views That's an impressive amount of people around the world engaging in improving their financial literacy We quite literally can't succeed like this without your supportive…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ⬇️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2055051192292851766#m

Published: May 14, 2026 22:22

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ⬇️ adamtaggart.substack.com

This Isn’t 1999 or 2007 — The Passive Bid Changed The Market Forever In this Short video, Bill Fleckenstein @fleckcap and @AdamTaggart discuss why the passive bid has become the dominant force in markets—and why today’s environment is nothing like 1999 or 2007. Most market participants are focusing on the wrong variables: macro data, geopolitics (war, tariffs), valuations, you name it. These matter far less than one dominant force: the “passive bid.” What is the passive bid? It is the continuous inflows into passive investing vehicles (index funds, ETFs, retirement accounts), which mechanically deploy capital that buys regardless of valuation or macro conditions. This creates a persistent upward force in markets, largely disconnected from fundamentals. On top of the passive bid, you have a Federal Reserve willing to inject liquidity and policies like QE (Quantitative Easing) — even if rebranded (e.g., “RMP” – Reserve Management Purchases). This results in cheap capital, liquidity flooding markets, and reinforcement of upward price trends. So, passive inflows + easy money = structurally bullish environment. Why is it so hard to fight/break? @fleckcap uses the following metaphor: the passive bid is like a supertanker moving through water. It’s slow, massive, and powerful – it creates waves behind it (secondary strategies).  What followed this trend: – Growth of algorithmic and systematic strategies – “Copycat” or momentum-following participants (“pilot fish”) – Factor investing built on past market behavior This ecosystem feeds on itself: passive flows → drive trends, algos detect trends → amplify them, and more capital follows → reinforces trend. Here is an example: the 2025 Tariffs shock happened when systematic strategies were heavily positioned. It triggered forced selling, momentum reversal, and psychological panic. As a result, the market decline fed on itself. But importantly, this wasn’t a fundamental repricing – it was a mechanical unwind. Labor market deterioration is what could actually break the system – not war or macro shocks, not even valuations. A shift from workers contributing to retirees withdrawing could reduce inflows into passive vehicles, and potentially reverse the bid. Today's market is driven by flows, not fundamentals. The behavior looks “crazy” (mania-like) – similar to what we have seen in 1999 and 2007. But there is a critical difference: back then, we had no QE, no dominant passive flows. Today, we have massive passive bid and central bank liquidity support. Therefore, historical analogies no longer work. Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Bill Fleckenstein by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2055051149301235795#m

Published: May 14, 2026 22:22

This Isn’t 1999 or 2007 — The Passive Bid Changed The Market Forever In this Short video, Bill Fleckenstein @fleckcap and @AdamTaggart discuss why the passive bid has become the dominant force in markets—and why today’s environment is nothing like 1999 or…

Stocks are stretched to overbought extremes, driven by red-hot semiconductors Quoting Bob Farrell, NewEdge Wealth CIO @camerondawson warns that vertical moves like this don't end by going sideways She sees high risk of a "ferocious" pullback WATCH: https://youtu.be/8-WXpJTcw6o

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2054940476307063118#m

Published: May 14, 2026 15:02

Stocks are stretched to overbought extremes, driven by red-hot semiconductors Quoting Bob Farrell, NewEdge Wealth CIO @camerondawson warns that vertical moves like this don't end by going sideways She sees high risk of a "ferocious" pullback WATCH:…

Former Kansas City Fed CEO & FOMC member Tom Hoenig returns to discuss what policies the @federalreserve is most likely to pursue under the new Kevin Warsh era He also reveals why one of the surest bets is the continued debasement of our money WATCH: https://youtu.be/fMZj-QZNpxc

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2054575935379427590#m

Published: May 13, 2026 14:54

Former Kansas City Fed CEO & FOMC member Tom Hoenig returns to discuss what policies the @federalreserve is most likely to pursue under the new Kevin Warsh era He also reveals why one of the surest bets is the continued debasement of our money WATCH:…

R to @thoughtfulmoney: Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ⬇️ https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2054294097234678056#m

Published: May 12, 2026 20:14

Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews I conduct each week (for premium subscribers) ⬇️ adamtaggart.substack.com/

Correction Incoming: Watch for This Rotation Signal In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart discuss why a strong market can still be vulnerable beneath the surface, and the key rotation signal Lance is watching as an early warning that capital is shifting and a correction may be closer than it looks. $SPX has continued its sharp rally off the lows. However, the move is becoming increasingly technically stretched, especially with RSI (Relative Strength Index) deeply overbought and the price moving too far, too fast. @LanceRoberts notes that they have started taking profits in leaders like $GOOGL and rotating into more defensive stocks like $LLY. Why? These sectors tend to hold up better if markets weaken. For example, earlier in the year, the equal-weight index $RSP outperformed $SPX. This was driven by industrials, commodities, materials, etc. This was the “reflation trade.” Then, after April lows, money rushed back into tech. Tech became the dominant leader again. BUT now that move has gone too far (extreme imbalance). What happens next? First, the rotation out of tech – money likely shifts from high-beta / growth / semiconductors into defensive sectors, dividend stocks, and low-volatility names. Why is the market still expected to fall? Tech has a huge weight in the index, while defensive sectors (like energy) are way smaller. So even if money rotates, it’s not enough to offset tech declines. As a result, index correction is expected. To spot this rotation, watch for the equal-weight index outperforming the cap-weighted index. It should start with semiconductors $SMH $SOXX (often the first to roll over) and then gradually spread across other sectors. @LanceRoberts expects a correction within the next couple of months. Not necessarily a crash — more likely a cooling-off period, driven by rotation + overextension. The smart approach right now is to trim winners, start shifting toward defense, and prepare for rotation, not panic. Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lance Roberts by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2054293870410912022#m

Published: May 12, 2026 20:13

Correction Incoming: Watch for This Rotation Signal In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart discuss why a strong market can still be vulnerable beneath the surface, and the key rotation signal Lance is watching as an early warning that capital…

"There will be hell to pay" when the bond market breaks, warns veteran investor Bill Fleckenstein @fleckcap The big question is: When will that happen? Bill and I discuss the likeliest causes & if the Iran war inflation shock is a contender WATCH: https://youtu.be/s5P8DXNefhY

https://nitter.poast.org/thoughtfulmoney/status/2054209985798922600#m

Published: May 12, 2026 14:40

"There will be hell to pay" when the bond market breaks, warns veteran investor Bill Fleckenstein @fleckcap The big question is: When will that happen? Bill and I discuss the likeliest causes & if the Iran war inflation shock is a contender WATCH:…