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NEW: Russian forces conducted four platoon-sized or smaller mechanized and motorized assaults across the theater in the last 48 hours, but these assaults are unlikely to bolster the ongoing Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive. Additional Key Takeawys: The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) employed an unmanned surface vessel (USV)-launched interceptor drone to intercept a Russian Shahed long-range strike drone for the first time and are creating USF naval drone battalions. A Russian defense industrial enterprise director criticized how the Russian government’s adopted economic policies have overcooled the Russian economy to the detriment of Russia’s import substitution efforts. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka direction. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces launched 236 drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian forces struck the Atlant Aero drone development and production plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045998428484771956#m

Published: April 19, 2026 22:50

NEW: Russian forces conducted four platoon-sized or smaller mechanized and motorized assaults across the theater in the last 48 hours, but these assaults are unlikely to bolster the ongoing Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive. Additional Key Takeawys:…

Pinned: NEW: The Iranian political officials who will reportedly negotiate with the United States in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 21 neither have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions nor are driving decision-making in Tehran. Other Key Takeaways: US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will attend the talks. Iran’s negotiating delegation is expected to include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The upcoming talks appear focused on extending the ceasefire, which is set to expire on April 22. Iranian sources familiar with the negotiations stated that Iran expects that the ceasefire will be extended and that additional talks will occur if the negotiations on April 21 go well. The Iranian negotiating team does not have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions, however. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and other senior members of the IRGC have consolidated control and wielded significant influence over the negotiations process thus far. Iran is attempting to establish a protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz, likely to consolidate the IRGC’s control over the strait and gain leverage over the United States in negotiations. Iran has reportedly decided to give vessels that pay a “security” fee and adhere to Iranian protocols priority to transit through the strait. The IRGC has continued to prevent traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy reportedly forced two oil tankers attempting to transit through the strait to change course. Many vessels that intended to transit through the strait have turned around.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045907381104623630#m

Published: April 19, 2026 16:48

NEW: The Iranian political officials who will reportedly negotiate with the United States in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 21 neither have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions nor are driving decision-making in Tehran. …

MORE: Russian milbloggers criticized Russian air defense failures on the heels of the successful Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure. It is unclear how successful Russia will be at successfully defending its defense industrial and oil infrastructure from Ukrainian strikes, given Russia’s need to cover vast areas and dispersed assets with air defenses, and Russian forces thus far have only taken limited measures to actually mitigate these strikes.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045887646292160636#m

Published: April 19, 2026 15:30

MORE: Russian milbloggers criticized Russian air defense failures on the heels of the successful Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure. It is unclear how successful Russia will be at successfully defending its…

Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Campaign: The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 18 that Ukrainian forces struck the Novokuibyshevsk and Syrzan oil refineries in Samara Oblast, an oil terminal at the Vysotsk Lukoil-2 Distribution Transshipment Complex in Leningrad Oblast, and the Tikhoretsk oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai on the night of April 17 to 18, causing fires at the facilities. Geolocated footage published on April 18 shows fires at the Novokuibyshevsk and Syrzan oil refineries, and a Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) source assessed that the strike on Novokuibyshevsk may have damaged up to three tanks. Regional Russian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes caused fires at the port in Vysotsk, Leningrad Oblast, and at an oil depot near Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on April 18 that Ukrainian forces also struck military and energy targets in occupied Crimea including the Yamal and Azov Ropucha-class project 775 large landing ships (both of the Black Sea Fleet [BSF]), an unidentified third warship, the antenna block of a Delfin communication system, and an MMys-M1 radar station in unspecified areas of occupied Crimea, and fuel tanks at the Yugtorsan oil depot near occupied Sevastopol. The SBU reported that Ukrainian strikes may also have damaged a Russian Grachonok-class project 21980 patrol boat. Geolocated footage published on April 18 shows a fire at the Sevastopol oil depot, and Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev acknowledged that the strike caused a fire at a fuel storage tank.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045865000741560774#m

Published: April 19, 2026 14:00

Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Campaign: The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 18 that Ukrainian forces struck the Novokuibyshevsk and Syrzan oil refineries in Samara Oblast, an oil terminal at the Vysotsk Lukoil-2 Distribution Transshipment Complex…

The IRGC Navy attacked several commercial vessels and halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, likely in order to both gain leverage over the United States and consolidate the IRGC’s control over Iran’s negotiations policy as part of an internally-motivated maneuver. The IRGC appears to have intervened and reasserted Iranian “control” over the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi announced on April 17 that the strait was open to commercial shipping. At least nine vessels exited the strait through Omani territorial waters and outside of Iran’s imposed traffic separation scheme on April 17 and early on April 18 following Araghchi’s announcement. The IRGC, however, harshly criticized Araghchi’s statement and outlined specific conditions for vessels to transit the strait that amount to Iran retaining control over maritime traffic through the strait. The IRGC Navy later announced that “no vessel of any kind” should approach the strait, or it will be targeted. The IRGC likely aims to secure leverage over the United States by halting traffic and driving up shipping and oil prices to impose economic pressure on the United States. The IRGC’s actions are also likely intended as an internal demonstration of power, designed to exhibit the IRGC’s control within the regime, particularly over Iran’s negotiation policy. The IRGC Navy likely used fast attack craft to attack and intimidate at least four vessels in order to deter vessels from transiting the strait on April 18. All of the attacked vessels appear to have been transiting along the Iran-imposed traffic separation route that forces ships through Iranian territorial waters at the time of the attacks. IRGC Navy “gunboats” fired on a likely Indian-flagged tanker east of Larak Island, and “unknown projectiles” struck a likely Iranian-flagged container ship in the same area. Reuters also reported that two vessels reported being struck by gunfire between Qeshm and Larak islands. All four vessels turned around. The IRGC also broadcast radio messages to vessels in the strait, warning them that the strait is “closed.” Numerous vessels traveling toward the strait turned around after the Iranian attacks, according to maritime tracking data. The US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports remained in place as of April 18. US CENTCOM said that it forced two ships to turn around and return to Iran between April 17 and 18. The US Navy has forced 23 ships to turn back since the United States began the blockade. Commercially available maritime tracking data shows that Iranian-flagged tankers and cargo ships continued to transit inside the strait on March 18 after the IRGC attacks, but no Iranian vessels have attempted to approach or test the blockade line as of this writing.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045857448477516275#m

Published: April 19, 2026 13:30

The IRGC Navy attacked several commercial vessels and halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, likely in order to both gain leverage over the United States and consolidate the IRGC’s control over Iran’s negotiations policy as part of an…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2045706452262965553?s=20

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045842091603829216#m

Published: April 19, 2026 12:28

3/ nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2… Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) MORE: The IRGC is responsible for coordinating and conducting military actions, but has historically not directly interfered in Iranian diplomacy and…

MORE: The IRGC is responsible for coordinating and conducting military actions, but has historically not directly interfered in Iranian diplomacy and negotiations to the extent it currently does. The IRGC’s consolidation of control over Iranian decision-making indicates that the Iranian political officials currently negotiating with the United States do not have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions. CTP-ISW recently assessed that the United States is negotiating with a divided committee of hardliners and pragmatists that lacks a cohesive, unified position. The IRGC appears to have sidelined more pragmatic figures with whom the United States has negotiated. Araghchi and Ghalibaf’s negotiating team reportedly did not have full authority to finalize a deal with the United States in Islamabad, for example.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045706452262965553#m

Published: April 19, 2026 03:30

MORE: The IRGC is responsible for coordinating and conducting military actions, but has historically not directly interfered in Iranian diplomacy and negotiations to the extent it currently does. The IRGC’s consolidation of control over Iranian…

Pinned: NEW: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely secured at least temporary control over not only Iran’s military response in this conflict but also Iran’s negotiating position and approach within the past 48 hours. The IRGC Navy attacked several commercial vessels on April 18 and declared that no vessel of “any type or nationality” is permitted passage through the strait, a reversal of Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s announcement on April 17 that the strait was “completely open” to commercial traffic. IRGC-affiliated media also announced on April 18 that Iran has not agreed to participate in another round of negotiations with the United States due to “excessive” US demands. Other Key Takeaways: Vahidi and individuals close to him may have effectively controlled the negotiations process throughout the war, which is traditionally a role reserved for political leaders. Vahidi likely intended to impose IRGC oversight over the recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad. The IRGC continued to play an outsized role in Iran’s negotiations after the Islamabad talks. The IRGC’s consolidation of control over Iranian decision-making indicates that the Iranian political officials currently negotiating with the United States do not have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions. The IRGC appears to have sidelined more pragmatic figures with whom the United States has negotiated. The IRGC attacked several commercial vessels and halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, likely in order to both gain leverage over the United States and consolidate the IRGC’s control over Iran’s negotiations policy as part of an internally-motivated maneuver. The IRGC likely aims to secure leverage over the United States by halting traffic and driving up shipping and oil prices to impose economic pressure on the United States. The IRGC’s actions are also likely intended to be an internal demonstration of power designed to exhibit the IRGC’s control within the regime, and in particular, its control over Iran’s negotiations policy. The US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports remains in place as of April 18. US CENTCOM said that it forced two ships to turn around and return to Iran between April 17 and 18. The US Navy has forced 23 ships to turn back since the United States began the blockade. No Iranian vessels have attempted to approach or test the blockade line as of this writing.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045682906970902836#m

Published: April 19, 2026 01:56

NEW: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely secured at least temporary control over not only Iran’s military response in this conflict but also Iran’s negotiating position…

NEW: Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to exploit overstretched Russian air defenses to damage oil infrastructure and military assets in Russia and occupied Crimea. Other Key Takeaways: Russian milbloggers criticized Russian air defense failures on the heels of the successful Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure. Russia appears to be leveraging Russian SIM cards with international roaming data capability in Ukrainian border areas to support its long-range strike campaign against Ukraine. The United States extended on April 17 the waiver allowing Russia to sell its existing seaborne oil until May 16. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces launched 219 long-range drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045657410077864241#m

Published: April 19, 2026 00:15

NEW: Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to exploit overstretched Russian air defenses to damage oil infrastructure and military assets in Russia and occupied Crimea. Other Key Takeaways: Russian milbloggers criticized Russian air defense…

R to @TheStudyofWar: ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on Iranian activity in the Strait of Hormuz in its April 18 Iran Update. Read ISW-CTP's latest analysis about the war here:https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-april-17-2026

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045550666689487116#m

Published: April 18, 2026 17:10

ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on Iranian activity in the Strait of Hormuz in its April 18 Iran Update. Read ISW-CTP's latest analysis about the war here:understandingwar.org/researc…

NEW: The IRGC appears to be controlling Iranian decision-making instead of Iranian political officials who are engaging with the United States in negotiations, particularly Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi previously announced on April 17 that the strait was “completely open” to commercial traffic. The IRGC, however, harshly criticized Araghchi’s statement and outlined specific conditions for vessels to transit the strait that amount to Iran retaining control over maritime traffic through the strait. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, which is functionally controlled by the IRGC, announced that Iranian forces have reinstated strict management and “control” over the Strait of Hormuz. The headquarters cited the US naval blockade on Iranian ports as the reason for the reimposition of Iranian "control" over the strait. IRGC-affiliated Fars News previously warned on April 17 that Iran would “close” the strait if the United States continued its blockade. The IRGC’s decision to interfere with international shipping and act in contradiction to Araghchi’s statement reflects broader divisions within the Iranian regime, which ISW-CTP has consistently reported on in recent weeks. The IRGC appears to be driving Iranian decision-making instead of Iranian officials who have engaged with the United States in recent weeks, such as Araghchi. The IRGC Navy has attacked at least three vessels attempting to transit the strait since it reinstated “control” over the strait on April 18. The IRGC is also using intimidation to deter ships from crossing the strait, including by sending radio messages to vessels warning them not to cross. Many vessels that intended to transit through the strait have turned around. US President Donald Trump stated that the United States cannot be blackmailed by Iran. The US Navy’s blockade on Iranian ports remains in place.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045550644921016407#m

Published: April 18, 2026 17:10

NEW: The IRGC appears to be controlling Iranian decision-making instead of Iranian political officials who are engaging with the United States in negotiations, particularly Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi previously announced on April 17…

NEW: Officials in Russian regions that the Kremlin has historically sought to shield from the effects of the war in Ukraine are beginning to acknowledge the impacts of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in the Russian rear. Other Key Takeaways: Russian state polls are acknowledging growing societal discontent with Russian President Vladimir Putin against the backdrop of mounting war sacrifices and an unpopular censorship campaign. Russian seaborne oil exports have reportedly fallen following an escalation in Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and ports. Ukrainian forces reportedly successfully operated a Sting interceptor drone at a range of 2,000 kilometers amid continued technical innovations to combat Russia’s long-range drone campaign. Ukraine continues to conclude joint production agreements with German defense industrial companies to support Ukraine’s air defense capabilities by expanding joint production efforts. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces launched 172 long-range drones and one missile against Ukraine. Ukrainian forces continued their strike campaign against military assets in Russian border oblasts.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045326527714251209#m

Published: April 18, 2026 02:20

NEW: Officials in Russian regions that the Kremlin has historically sought to shield from the effects of the war in Ukraine are beginning to acknowledge the impacts of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in the Russian rear. Other Key Takeaways: Russian…

MORE: There continue to be significant gaps between the US and Iranian negotiating positions, and the status of the negotiations remains unclear. The two sides disagree on several core issues, according to US, Iranian, and other officials and sources on April 16 and 17. US President Donald Trump has continued to press for the complete removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile from Iran, while Iran appears unwilling to surrender all of its enriched uranium. The parties also remain divided over Iran’s ability to enrich uranium. Some Iranian regime officials seek a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire to continue negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement. ISW previously noted that Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile force, and Iran would almost certainly continue to do so if the United States and Iran agreed to a preliminary agreement and extended the ceasefire

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045306318899032422#m

Published: April 18, 2026 01:00

MORE: There continue to be significant gaps between the US and Iranian negotiating positions, and the status of the negotiations remains unclear. The two sides disagree on several core issues, according to US, Iranian, and other officials and sources on…

Pinned: NEW: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which is the Iranian entity that has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz during the war, outlined specific conditions on April 17 for vessels to transit the strait that amount to Iran retaining control over maritime traffic through the strait. These conditions include: 1) only commercial vessels not “related to belligerent countries” may transit the strait, 2) vessels must transit the strait via Iran’s approved transit route through Iranian territorial waters, and 3) vessels must coordinate their passage through the Strait with Iranian forces. These conditions indicate that the IRGC seeks to retain operational control over transit through the strait, likely to continue to use the strait as a point of leverage to try to extract concessions from the United States. The IRGC harshly criticized Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi after Araghchi announced on X that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open.” The IRGC’s criticism of Araghchi is reflective of broader divisions within the Iranian regime, which CTP-ISW has consistently reported on in recent weeks. Commercially available maritime data shows that no Iranian-linked vessels approached the US blockade line on April 17, and US officials have stated that US forces will engage Iranian-linked vessels beyond this line. CENTCOM announced on April 17 that 19 vessels have complied with US direction to turn around and that zero vessels have successfully breached the blockade. Commercially available maritime data shows that some non-Iranian-linked vessels have approached the US blockade line to exit the strait. These ships do not fall under the US blockade and are able to freely transit in and out of the strait.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045297842655244749#m

Published: April 18, 2026 00:26

NEW: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which is the Iranian entity that has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz during the war, outlined specific conditions on April 17 for vessels to transit the strait that amount to Iran retaining…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: Things in Ethiopia had quieted down since the Iran war began, but we warned last week that the Pretoria impasse was still unaddressed and left an elevated risk of clashes. Will this trigger a federal response, or will fuel shortages and lack of external support constrain Abiy?

https://nitter.poast.org/liam_karr/status/2045242367318405139#m

Published: April 17, 2026 20:45

Things in Ethiopia had quieted down since the Iran war began, but we warned last week that the Pretoria impasse was still unaddressed and left an elevated risk of clashes. Will this trigger a federal response, or will fuel shortages and lack of external…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Philippines: The PRC may be conducting new lines of effort to reduce Philippine access to disputed South China Sea features. Read more in this week's update w/ @AEIfdp: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate041726

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045202028104691817#m

Published: April 17, 2026 18:05

2/ Philippines: The PRC may be conducting new lines of effort to reduce Philippine access to disputed South China Sea features. Read more in this week's update w/ @AEIfdp: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate041…

NEW | China & Taiwan Update, April 17, 2026: Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun reiterated standard PRC rhetoric during her April 10 meeting with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping. The PRC is setting conditions for continued cooperation with the KMT. The PRC is continuing its multi-domain coercion efforts targeting Taiwan as a means to achieve “peaceful reunification.” The PRC released a ten-point plan to increase cross-strait integration, particularly with Taiwan’s offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu, following the Xi-Cheng meeting. PRC-Iran Relations: The PRC likely aided Iran’s targeting capabilities during its conflict with the United States and Israel and may be assisting Iran’s efforts to reconstitute some of its air defense capabilities during the current ceasefire. The PRC is likely interested in maintaining the stability of the Iranian regime without provoking US retaliation or jeopardizing its relationship with other Gulf states. PLA Activity in Taiwan: The PRC has likely practiced clandestine insertions into Taiwanese territory using motorboats and other small craft to avoid detection during PLA exercises. The PRC could use these methods to insert special forces, saboteurs, or civilians who encourage capitulation and undermine Taiwan’s defenses during a conflict. The areas of Taiwan that the PRC has attempted to infiltrate in this manner could be critical to an amphibious invasion (see map below). New Taipei City’s Linkou and Tamsui districts are adjacent to Bali Beach and Tamsui Beach, two of Taiwan’s “red beaches” that have favorable conditions for an amphibious landing. Infiltrating these areas could improve the PLA’s understanding of local terrain, human geography, and military installations, which are critical to planning and executing an amphibious landing.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045202024954822901#m

Published: April 17, 2026 18:05

NEW | China & Taiwan Update, April 17, 2026: Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun reiterated standard PRC rhetoric during her April 10 meeting with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping. The PRC is setting conditions for continued…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW: US President Donald Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz is open to "full passage” for commercial shipping but that the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. Trump’s statement came shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the strait is “completely open” to commercial traffic. Araghchi specified that the strait is open in the Iranian-asserted traffic separation scheme; however, in reference to the Iran-imposed route through the strait that forces ships to travel through Iranian territorial waters. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff- and IRGC-affiliated media similarly emphasized that vessels “must pass” through the Iran-imposed route. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports will “remain in full force” until the United States and Iran reach a deal, according to Trump. The graphic below shows how Iranian-linked vessels or vessels transiting to or from Iran continued to transit the strait between March 1 and the ceasefire on April 8, while non-Iranian-linked vessel traffic decreased. Araghchi tied his announcement about the Strait to the recent ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah and Israel continued to trade fire in the hours leading up to the ceasefire, which went into effect at 5 PM ET on April 17. Thousands of residents from southern Lebanon began to return to their homes. Hezbollah acknowledged the ceasefire in a brief statement, while Hezbollah officials demanded that the IDF withdraw from Lebanon. Israeli officials have emphasized that they intend to maintain the IDF’s “anti-tank line” to protect northern Israeli residents from Hezbollah anti-tank guided missile attacks. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the ceasefire in its April 17 Iran Update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045181112448647216#m

Published: April 17, 2026 16:42

NEW: US President Donald Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz is open to "full passage” for commercial shipping but that the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. Trump’s statement came shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas…

MORE: The Russian military command is likely pulling forces from the Russian strategic reserves in order to mitigate Russian forces’ continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines. The deployment, if true, is unlikely to significantly alter the situation on the frontline; 20,000 soldiers are notably fewer than one month’s worth of Russian casualties.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2045159508444381378#m

Published: April 17, 2026 15:16

MORE: The Russian military command is likely pulling forces from the Russian strategic reserves in order to mitigate Russian forces’ continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines. The deployment, if true, is unlikely to…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW | Turkey has recently advanced economic and security ties with Niger and Somalia, viewing both countries as its African anchor states through which it can further its strategic interests in Africa. These partnerships aim to address several domestic concerns, such as patronage and energy security, and bolster Turkey’s international standing vis-à-vis global competitors.🧵⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2045143804164845927#m

Published: April 17, 2026 14:14

NEW | Turkey has recently advanced economic and security ties with Niger and Somalia, viewing both countries as its African anchor states through which it can further its strategic interests in Africa. These partnerships aim to address several domestic…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Ukrainian forces advanced in the Slovyansk-Lyman tactical area. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched 44 missiles and 636 long-range drones against Ukraine. Read more: https://isw.pub/UkrWar041626

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044974856635130320#m

Published: April 17, 2026 03:02

2/ Ukrainian forces advanced in the Slovyansk-Lyman tactical area. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched 44 missiles and 636 long-range drones against Ukraine. Read more:…

NEW: Russian forces conducted the sixth-largest series of drone and missile strikes throughout the day on April 15 and overnight into April 16, using over 700 strike vehicles, killing at least 17 and injuring at least 100 civilians. Russian forces also conducted a double-tap strike against first responders responding to Russian strikes in Kyiv City. Russian forces leveraged a new strike tactic allowing Russia to threaten more areas of Ukraine for longer periods of time and disproportionately affect civilian areas — tactics first debuted during the largest Russian strikes series of the war thus far on March 23 to 24. The Russian military command is likely pulling forces from the Russian strategic reserves in order to mitigate Russian forces’ continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines. Senior Russian officials allegedly continue to repress pro-war information space figures that the Kremlin cannot censor or co-opt as part of wider efforts to consolidate the information space under the Kremlin’s control.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044974854672191636#m

Published: April 17, 2026 03:02

NEW: Russian forces conducted the sixth-largest series of drone and missile strikes throughout the day on April 15 and overnight into April 16, using over 700 strike vehicles, killing at least 17 and injuring at least 100 civilians. Russian forces also…

MORE: Iran is leveraging its position over the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions while maintaining its claim to control access to the waterway. ⬇️ Reuters reported on April 15 that Iran has proposed allowing ships to transit through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without interference if the United States agrees to conditions that prevent renewed conflict and meet Iranian demands. Iran has linked increased maritime access to broader negotiations, including demands to unfreeze Iranian funds, and a permanent end to US and Israeli strikes both in this war and for posterity. The implication of Iran’s “concession” is that it could threaten ships to discourage them from transiting the Omani side of the Strait unless the United States grants Iran significant concessions. Agreeing to Iranian demands along these lines would show Iran that it can coerce the United States using the Strait of Hormuz both now and in the future. Iran appears not to have compromised on its stance over the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program, despite Iranian sources attempting to illustrate that Iran has compromised and the two sides have made progress in negotiations, however. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) affiliated media on April 16 denied all recent Reuters reporting citing Iranian sources. The same IRGC-affiliated outlet had cast doubt on progress in future US-Iran talks, due to Iran‘s distrust of the United States and US “excessive demands” earlier on April 16. These conflicting reports on Iranian stances in these negotiations corroborate CTP-ISW’s continued observation that the Iranian negotiating council is not unified. This disunity will make it harder for Iran to make decisions and implement decisions throughout this negotiating process. The IRGC appears to be playing an outsized role in Iranian decision-making in these negotiations, traditionally meant for civilian leadership. US President Donald Trump stated on April 16 that the United States is “very close” to reaching a deal with Iran. The United States Navy continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports. The United States is targeting materiel support to Iran’s armed forces and military capabilities through the blockade. Commercially available maritime data provides only limited information on vessel compliance with the US blockade. At least four vessels entered the Strait of Hormuz, and two vessels exited the strait since ISW-CTP's data cutoff on April 15, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence. This data does not confirm whether any of these vessels violated the blockade or received US authorization to transit. One of the entering vessels, cargo ship ZAYNAR2, departed Mumbai, India, on April 11 and entered the strait on April 15. Commercially available maritime data does not indicate what the vessel was carrying. Reuters previously reported that US military guidance to mariners exempts humanitarian shipments to Iran. Open-source information also does not reveal whether the vessel communicated with US Navy forces.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044954758696333602#m

Published: April 17, 2026 01:43

MORE: Iran is leveraging its position over the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions while maintaining its claim to control access to the waterway. ⬇️ Reuters reported on April 15 that Iran has proposed allowing ships to transit through the Omani side…

Pinned: NEW: The main sticking point in current US-Iran negotiations is reportedly Iran’s enrichment of uranium and its highly enriched uranium stockpile. The IRGC appears to be playing an outsized role in Iranian decision-making in these negotiations, traditionally meant for civilian leadership. Other Key Takeaways: Iran appears to have not compromised on its stance over the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program, despite Iranian sources attempting to illustrate that Iran has compromised and the two sides have made progress in negotiations, however. Iran is leveraging its position over the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions while maintaining its claim to control access to the waterway. US President Donald Trump stated on April 16 that the United States is “very close” to reaching a deal with Iran. Trump stated that Iran “has agreed to almost everything” and added that Iran has agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile. Iran has not publicly confirmed Trump’s remarks at the time of this writing. The United States is targeting materiel support to Iran’s armed forces and military capabilities through the blockade. The blockade also continues to impose economic costs on Iran. The Iranian missile force is exploiting the current ceasefire to reconstitute its tactical and operational-level units, but rebuilding the industrial facilities and other components that sustain the missile force at the strategic level will be extremely challenging. US President Donald Trump announced that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire beginning at 5:00 PM ET on April 16. Netanyahu stated that Lebanon must disarm Hezbollah and establish a ”lasting peace agreement” with Israel.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044933128066572341#m

Published: April 17, 2026 00:17

NEW: The main sticking point in current US-Iran negotiations is reportedly Iran’s enrichment of uranium and its highly enriched uranium stockpile. The IRGC appears to be playing an outsized role in Iranian decision-making in these negotiations,…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: 🇱🇻🇩🇪 The Permanent Missions to the @UN of Latvia and Germany co-hosted an informal briefing with the @TheStudyofWar Russia and 🇺🇦 Ukraine Team. 🎙️ ~70 Ambassadors, military advisors, experts, and journalists joined a valuable discussion on Russia’s war against Ukraine, testing the international rules-based system and reshaping modern warfare through technology and information. 🙏 Thank you Kateryna Stepanenko and Christina Harward for the insightful exchange. 📲 More from ISW: 🔗 https://understandingwar.org

https://nitter.poast.org/LatviaUN_NY/status/2044874025076220098#m

Published: April 16, 2026 20:22

🇱🇻🇩🇪 The Permanent Missions to the @UN of Latvia and Germany co-hosted an informal briefing with the @TheStudyofWar Russia and 🇺🇦 Ukraine Team. 🎙️ ~70 Ambassadors, military advisors, experts, and journalists joined a valuable discussion on Russia’s war…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: The Ethiopian federal government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration by one year on April 8, avoiding a potential flashpoint for the immediate resumption of war in Tigray—but underlying tensions may still bubble into conflict. More from CTP's @mikedeangelo25 ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2044855284162580838#m

Published: April 16, 2026 19:07

The Ethiopian federal government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration by one year on April 8, avoiding a potential flashpoint for the immediate resumption of war in Tigray—but underlying tensions may still bubble into conflict. More…

NEW: Iran has proposed allowing more traffic through the strait or permitting unrestricted transit along the Omani side in exchange for the release of frozen Iranian assets and other unspecified concessions. Both Iranian proposals carry the same implicit demand that the international community recognize Iran’s control over the international waterway. These proposals are consistent with persistent Iranian messaging about imposing a new status quo for transit through the strait because “allowing” traffic along the Omani side of the Strait implies that Iran can “allow” traffic through an international waterway. US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. CENTCOM stated that 13 vessels have complied with US directives to turn around. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defined a blockade line that stretches diagonally across the Gulf of Oman from Ras al Hadd, Oman, to the Iran-Pakistan border. The US Navy is also interdicting Iranian-linked ships in the Pacific Ocean that crossed the line before the blockade began, however. Iran, meanwhile, continues to signal that it will not meet stated US nuclear demands, particularly regarding uranium enrichment and its highly enriched uranium stockpile, which remain key sticking points in negotiations. The United States and Iran are reportedly considering an interim 60-day deal, according to Iranian sources speaking to Western media. Iran is already exploiting the current ceasefire to reconstitute its capabilities, including by attempting to reopen tunnel entrances at missile bases to access buried missile launchers. Iran will almost certainly continue to do so in the 60-day period. US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting at 5 PM ET on April 16. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the ceasefire in its April 16 Iran Update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044819023045574708#m

Published: April 16, 2026 16:43

NEW: Iran has proposed allowing more traffic through the strait or permitting unrestricted transit along the Omani side in exchange for the release of frozen Iranian assets and other unspecified concessions. Both Iranian proposals carry the same implicit…

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Geolocated footage published on March 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in central Zakitne (northeast of Slovyansk). Footage posted on April 13 and geolocated on April 14 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in central Zakitne, indicating that Ukrainian forces maintained positions in Zakitne since March 28. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Geolocated footage posted on April 12 and 13 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced marginally east of Kostyantynivka and in southern Berestok (south of Kostyantynivka). ISW assesses that Russian forces likely infiltrated around Ukrainian positions in southern Berestok.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044777838486618146#m

Published: April 16, 2026 14:00

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Geolocated footage published on March 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in central Zakitne (northeast of Slovyansk). Footage posted on April 13 and geolocated on April 14 shows…

MORE: Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile forces on the tactical level. Satellite imagery observed by CNN on April 14 showed that Iran attempted to remove debris in front of the entrances to the Southwest Tabriz Missile Base in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province, and the Khomein Missile Base in Khomein, Markazi Province The combined force struck an Iranian defense industrial site and likely a makeshift internal security headquarters before the ceasefire. Satellite imagery from March 27 shows that the combined force struck the Ritaj Entertainment Complex in Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044762736270229811#m

Published: April 16, 2026 13:00

MORE: Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile forces on the tactical level. Satellite imagery observed by CNN on April 14 showed that Iran attempted to remove debris in front of the entrances to the…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 14 that the United States and Israel have decided that removing the enriched uranium from Iran is a “threshold condition” for ending the US-Israeli campaign. The US Treasury sanctioned 29 targets, including three individuals, 17 companies, and nine vessels on April 15, which are tied to Iranian oil smuggling and associated financing networks as part of the United States’ broader economic pressure campaign on Iran. Pakistan is reportedly pushing the United States and Iran to extend the ceasefire by 45 days. US President Donald Trump told ABC News on April 14 that he is not considering extending the ceasefire that ends on April 22.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044756488762359815#m

Published: April 16, 2026 12:35

2/ Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 14 that the United States and Israel have decided that removing the enriched uranium from Iran is a “threshold condition” for ending the US-Israeli campaign. The US Treasury sanctioned 29 targets,…

MORE | US-Iran Negotiations 🧵: The United States has reportedly set two preconditions for another round of negotiations: first, Iran must fully “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, and second, the Iranian negotiating delegation must have “full authority” to finalize a deal. The second precondition comes amid reports of intra-regime conflict and corroborates ISW-CTP’s assessment that the United States is negotiating with a divided council of hardliners and pragmatists rather than a singular, unified authority. Some Iranian officials have signaled different levels of willingness to compromise on Iran’s nuclear program in negotiations with the United States. These statements, at least to some extent, reflect internal disagreement over Iran’s negotiating position.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044756485109055737#m

Published: April 16, 2026 12:35

MORE | US-Iran Negotiations 🧵: The United States has reportedly set two preconditions for another round of negotiations: first, Iran must fully “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, and second, the Iranian negotiating delegation must have “full authority” to…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ Iranian Internal Security: Iranian media reported on April 15 that two IED attacks targeted a Basij checkpoint on Imam Khamenei Street in Tehran City, injuring three people and causing material damage to nearby homes and vehicles. w/@criticalthreats: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate041526

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044581309134033064#m

Published: April 16, 2026 00:59

3/ Iranian Internal Security: Iranian media reported on April 15 that two IED attacks targeted a Basij checkpoint on Imam Khamenei Street in Tehran City, injuring three people and causing material damage to nearby homes and vehicles. w/@criticalthreats:…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response: The Israeli Security Cabinet reportedly held a meeting on April 15 to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, amid recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon under US auspices. Israeli officials have not announced the outcome of the security cabinet meeting at the time of tonight's publication. Israeli media reported that senior IDF officials are calling for the IDF to expand its “security zone” in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed that it conducted 26 attacks targeting IDF infrastructure and Israeli communities in northern Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 14. Hezbollah claimed that it conducted 20 attacks targeting Israeli forces in southern Lebanon since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 14. The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and fighters across Lebanon.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044581305921278197#m

Published: April 16, 2026 00:59

2/ Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response: The Israeli Security Cabinet reportedly held a meeting on April 15 to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, amid recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon under US auspices. Israeli…

Pinned: NEW | Evening Iran Update 🧵(1/3): US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement. CENTCOM stated that nine vessels complied with the US direction to turn around and return to Iranian ports or coastal areas. CENTCOM added that US forces have halted economic maritime trade to and from Iran and are prepared to act against any vessels attempting to violate the blockade. Additional CENTCOM reporting indicates that the US forces redirected at least one Iranian-flagged cargo vessel after it departed Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province. 2. The United States has reportedly set two preconditions for another round of negotiations: first, Iran must fully “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, and second, the Iranian negotiating delegation must have “full authority” to finalize a deal. The second precondition comes amid reports of intra-regime conflict and corroborates ISW-CTP’s assessment that the United States is negotiating with a divided council of hardliners and pragmatists rather than a singular, unified authority. 3. Some Iranian officials have signaled different levels of willingness to compromise on Iran’s nuclear program in negotiations with the United States. These statements, at least to some extent, reflect internal disagreement over Iran’s negotiating position. 4. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 14 that the United States and Israel have decided that removing the enriched uranium from Iran is a “threshold condition” for ending the US-Israeli campaign. 5. The US Treasury sanctioned 29 targets, including three individuals, 17 companies, and nine vessels on April 15, which are tied to Iranian oil smuggling and associated financing networks as part of the United States’ broader economic pressure campaign on Iran. 6. Pakistan is reportedly pushing the United States and Iran to extend the ceasefire by 45 days. US President Donald Trump told ABC News on April 14 that he is not considering extending the ceasefire that ends on April 22. 7. Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile forces program on the tactical level by attempting to reopen tunnel entrances at missile bases. 8. Iran reportedly utilized an advanced reconnaissance satellite purchased from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2024 to target US military assets and bases across the Middle East during the war. 9. The Israeli Security Cabinet reportedly held a meeting on April 15 to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, amid recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon under US auspices. Israeli officials have not announced the outcome of the security cabinet meeting at the time of this writing, however.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044581302599389252#m

Published: April 16, 2026 00:59

NEW | Evening Iran Update 🧵(1/3): US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement.…

NEW: Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on April 14 and 15. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M ballistic missiles from unspecified areas of Rostov Oblast and 324 Shahed-type, Italmas-type, and other drones, of which roughly 250 were Shahed-type drones, from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities, Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and occupied Hvardiiske and Cape Chauda, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 309 drones – a drone interception rate of roughly 95 percent. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that ballistic missiles and 13 drones struck nine locations and that drone debris impacted territory in the north, south, east, and center of Ukraine. More Key Takeaways: Ukraine’s Western allies continue to provide military capabilities to support Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk and Kostyantynivka directions. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched three missiles and 324 drones toward Ukraine. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044553455818121351#m

Published: April 15, 2026 23:08

NEW: Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on April 14 and 15. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M ballistic missiles from unspecified areas of Rostov…

NEW: Indirect US-Iran negotiations continue. The United States sent a draft proposal to mediators on April 14, and the Pakistani chief of defense forces arrived in Tehran on April 15, according to Axios. It does not appear that either side has publicly compromised on their red lines, however. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that removing highly enriched uranium from Iran is a “threshold condition” for the end of Israel’s military campaign. Katz implied that Israel had coordinated with the United States over this requirement. US Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper announced that US forces continue to implement the naval blockade against Iranian ports and have completely halted economic trade to and from Iran. One of the two reported decisionmakers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leadership called the US blockade a “prelude to a ceasefire violation,” adding that Iran will continue its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The current ceasefire allows Iran’s missile force to reorganize itself and prepare for a new round of fighting, should the war resume. The operational-level disruption of Iran’s missile force, particularly its medium-range force, was temporary and can only be maintained through military pressure. @BenTzionMacales identified Iranian engineering equipment at Tabriz South missile base in East Azerbaijan Province and the Khomein missile base in Markazi Province, both of which have been struck several times in the US-Iran conflict. The combined force disrupted efforts to dig out missiles before the ceasefire by striking this equipment.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044469482370781372#m

Published: April 15, 2026 17:34

NEW: Indirect US-Iran negotiations continue. The United States sent a draft proposal to mediators on April 14, and the Pakistani chief of defense forces arrived in Tehran on April 15, according to Axios. It does not appear that either side has publicly…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: MORE | A sanctions-focused analyst reported on April 13 that Iran’s onshore oil storage capacity is 13 days, after which Iran would have to shut down its oil fields, potentially causing long-term damage to the oil fields. Iran’s limited storage capacity highlights the difficult position the US blockade has put Iran in.

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2044413841753211320#m

Published: April 15, 2026 13:53

MORE | A sanctions-focused analyst reported on April 13 that Iran’s onshore oil storage capacity is 13 days, after which Iran would have to shut down its oil fields, potentially causing long-term damage to the oil fields. Iran’s limited storage capacity…

MORE: The Russian State Duma adopted a law on April 14 that allows Putin to authorize the use of the Russian Armed Forces overseas to defend “Russian citizens” being prosecuted in international or foreign national courts. @bbcrussian noted on April 14 that the phrasing of the law suggests that it does not apply to all Russian citizens arrested overseas. BBC noted that it applies only to Russian citizens who are being prosecuted in international or national courts “vested with powers” by foreign states without Russian participation or by international bodies whose authority does not derive either from Russian international treaties or a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution adopted to implement powers provided for in Chapter VII of the United Nations (UN) Charter. The text of the law is likely purposefully vague, and it is unclear how Russian President Vladimir Putin would employ Russian forces in such a scenario. The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to increase its production capabilities but is unable to achieve its maximum potential without further investment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 14 that Ukraine produces most of the weapons Ukrainian forces use in all types of operations. Zelensky added that the Ukrainian DIB could produce twice as much as it is producing today, but that insufficient funding is preventing this. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s partners stand to benefit from continuing to invest in the Ukrainian DIB as Ukraine seeks self-sufficiency and is increasingly able to export technology and weapons to partners.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044392797726298116#m

Published: April 15, 2026 12:30

MORE: The Russian State Duma adopted a law on April 14 that allows Putin to authorize the use of the Russian Armed Forces overseas to defend “Russian citizens” being prosecuted in international or foreign national courts. @bbcrussian noted on April 14…

Iran appears to have three other courses of action that it could take to respond to the US blockade on Iranian ports. It is unclear which course of action Iran will pursue at this time. The courses of action include: 1. Iran could agree to a deal acceptable to the United States, which would likely require Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program and other issues. 2. Iran could attempt to run the blockade, a move that would almost certainly result in a US response and possibly the seizure of Iranian vessels central to Iran’s oil trade. 3. Iran could restart or widen the conflict, although it is unclear whether a resumption of the conflict would necessarily end the US blockade on Iranian ports.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044264454230295010#m

Published: April 15, 2026 04:00

Iran appears to have three other courses of action that it could take to respond to the US blockade on Iranian ports. It is unclear which course of action Iran will pursue at this time. The courses of action include: 1. Iran could agree to a deal…

MORE: Centralized control over drone distribution may allow Russian forces to more heavily concentrate drones and to supply more trained personnel in select areas of the front, but may also hamper their ability to innovate quickly. This new system will likely create a state monopoly over procurement, allowing for more corruption and eroding the volunteer-based procurement movement.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044256901962039663#m

Published: April 15, 2026 03:30

MORE: Centralized control over drone distribution may allow Russian forces to more heavily concentrate drones and to supply more trained personnel in select areas of the front, but may also hamper their ability to innovate quickly. This new system will…

MORE: The United States’ decision not to renew a 30-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports, which is set to expire on April 19, will further constrain Iran’s ability to export oil in addition to the US blockade on Iranian ports. Two US officials told Reuters on April 14 that the US Treasury Department will enforce sanctions on Iranian oil after April 19. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also told reporters on April 14 that the US blockade on Iranian ports will ensure that no vessels from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are “able to get their [Iranian] oil.” The PRC purchases more than 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. A sanctions-focused US analyst estimated on April 13 that a successful blockade on Iranian ports would cost the regime around $435 million USD per day, leaving Iran with few alternatives to export and import goods.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044249354165186680#m

Published: April 15, 2026 03:00

MORE: The United States’ decision not to renew a 30-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports, which is set to expire on April 19, will further constrain Iran’s ability to export oil in addition to the US blockade on Iranian ports. Two US officials told…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ It is also unclear whether any of the vessels that left Iranian ports on April 14 were authorized to do so under CENTCOM’s “limited grade period.” United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported on April 13 that CENTCOM granted “neutral vessels” currently docked at Iranian ports an unspecified grace period to depart. The complexity and variety of factors involved in the blockade, including determining vessels’ origin and destination and whether vessels are considered “neutral”, make it premature to try to assess whether some vessels have gotten through the US blockade.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044234307540029712#m

Published: April 15, 2026 02:00

3/ It is also unclear whether any of the vessels that left Iranian ports on April 14 were authorized to do so under CENTCOM’s “limited grade period.” United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported on April 13 that CENTCOM granted “neutral vessels”…

MORE 🧵(1/3): Commercially available maritime data indicates that at least eight vessels departed the Strait of Hormuz, including six Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels, on April 14. One of the vessels, the US-sanctioned Rich Starry oil tanker, departed from Amjan Port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on April 13. Other Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels, including the Elpis and Christianna, also left the strait after departing Iranian ports.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044234301068456074#m

Published: April 15, 2026 02:00

MORE 🧵(1/3): Commercially available maritime data indicates that at least eight vessels departed the Strait of Hormuz, including six Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels, on April 14. One of the vessels, the US-sanctioned Rich Starry oil tanker, departed from…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Commercially available maritime data also indicates that at least nine vessels entered the Strait of Hormuz, including three Iranian or Iranian-linked ships. One of the entering vessels was the Ocean Energy cargo ship, which docked at Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port on April 13. It is unclear whether this vessel was exempted from the blockade. Reuters reported that a US military notice sent to mariners exempts humanitarian shipments to Iran from the US blockade. CENTCOM also announced that six merchant vessels complied with the US direction to return to an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM has not interdicted any vessels at the time of this writing (1400 EDT).

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044234304432030161#m

Published: April 15, 2026 02:00

2/ Commercially available maritime data also indicates that at least nine vessels entered the Strait of Hormuz, including three Iranian or Iranian-linked ships. One of the entering vessels was the Ocean Energy cargo ship, which docked at Iran’s Bandar…

Pinned: NEW: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that no vessels have breached the US blockade on Iranian ports since CENTCOM implemented its blockade on April 13. The US blockade on Iranian ports does not have a defined geographic boundary, and the United States can interdict vessels almost anywhere in international waters until they arrive at their final port. It is unclear whether any of the vessels that left Iranian ports on April 14 were authorized to do so under CENTCOM’s “limited grade period.” Other Key Takeaways: The United States’ decision not to renew a 30-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports, which is set to expire on April 19, will further constrain Iran’s ability to export oil in addition to the US blockade on Iranian ports. Two US officials told Reuters on April 14 that the US Treasury Department will enforce sanctions on Iranian oil after April 19. Iran is reportedly considering temporarily pausing shipments to avoid testing the US blockade on Iranian ports and raising tensions ahead of possible talks, according to a person familiar with Iranian decision-making on the Strait of Hormuz speaking to Bloomberg on April 14. Iran would only be able to pause shipments for a limited period of time before it would start to run out of room to store oil. Iran could also pursue several other courses of action in response to the US blockade, including agreeing to a deal acceptable to the United States, attempting to run the blockade, or resuming the war. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Mohammad Mokhber warned that Iran will “open new fronts” and “increase economic pressures” on US allies and regional countries in response to the US blockade on Iranian ports, likely to try to coerce the United States to end its blockade. Mokhber may have been referring to the Houthis, which has not conducted attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea during the war thus far. Arab officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 14 that Iran is pressuring the Houthis to “close” the Bab al Mandeb Strait. US President Donald Trump stated on April 14 that the United States and Iran may hold another round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, “over [the] next two days.” A senior Iranian source told Western media on April 14 that the United States and Iran are keeping April 17 through 19 open for possible talks, but that no date has been confirmed.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044222550272573773#m

Published: April 15, 2026 01:13

NEW: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that no vessels have breached the US blockade on Iranian ports since CENTCOM implemented its blockade on April 13. The US blockade on Iranian ports does not have a defined geographic boundary, and the United…

Pinned: NEW: Russia is increasingly centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will likely have both positive and negative consequences. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian State Duma adopted a law on April 14 that allows Russian President Vladimir Putin to authorize the use of the Russian Armed Forces overseas to defend “Russian citizens” being prosecuted in international or foreign national courts. The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to increase its production capabilities but is unable to achieve its maximum potential without further investment. Ukraine’s European partners continue to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense capabilities while increasing joint production cooperation. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on April 14. Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian radar systems in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces launched four cruise missiles and 129 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044203231669047658#m

Published: April 14, 2026 23:56

NEW: Russia is increasingly centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will likely have both positive and negative consequences. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian State Duma adopted a law on April 14 that allows Russian…

R to @TheStudyofWar: CORRECTION: The text under More Key Takeaways should read, "The United States began its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on April 13 as part of US efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not impeding freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to or from non-Iranian ports."

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044156723213283762#m

Published: April 14, 2026 20:51

CORRECTION: The text under More Key Takeaways should read, "The United States began its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on April 13 as part of US efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not impeding…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ The military terrain analysis in this study assesses the Fortress Belt’s terrain on four characteristics: population density and urban development (including land use), water features, elevation and slope, and prepared defensive fortifications. https://isw.pub/FortressBelt041426

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044146610788053348#m

Published: April 14, 2026 20:11

2/ The military terrain analysis in this study assesses the Fortress Belt’s terrain on four characteristics: population density and urban development (including land use), water features, elevation and slope, and prepared defensive fortifications. …

Pinned: NEW | The Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: Geospatial Intelligence Terrain Analysis, by @georgewbarros Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️(1/2) Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. The Fortress Belt’s terrain is well-suited for a strong defensive line, whereas the terrain further west of the Fortress Belt – the land that would serve as the new front line if Ukraine lost the Fortress Belt – is poorly suited to serve as a defensive line. The remaining 19 percent of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast is critical for Ukraine’s defense. Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is a concentration of four large cities in Donetsk Oblast and their satellite settlements running north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland) and had a pre-invasion population of over 380,000 people. Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the Fortress Belt and establishing significant defensive infrastructure in and around these cities. The Fortress Belt is essential to ensuring that Ukraine maintains a geographically defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. Understanding the topographical significance of the Fortress Belt is highly relevant for US policy. For the past year, the Trump Administration has been leading negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to find an end to the war. One of the prerequisites for a robust and sustainable peace is ensuring that Ukraine maintains a geographically defensible front line to deny Russia from restarting offensives.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044146607868740077#m

Published: April 14, 2026 20:11

NEW | The Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: Geospatial Intelligence Terrain Analysis, by @georgewbarros Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️(1/2) Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The…

"Late last year Putin signed several decrees allowing for members of Russia’s military reserve to be called up for specific tasks and training, a move analysts from @TheStudyofWar have warned may pave the way for rolling involuntary or covert mobilizations." Read more below from @KatStepanenko interview with @CNN on Russia's recruitment crunch ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044113714698186769#m

Published: April 14, 2026 18:01

"Late last year Putin signed several decrees allowing for members of Russia’s military reserve to be called up for specific tasks and training, a move analysts from @TheStudyofWar have warned may pave the way for rolling involuntary or covert…

Pinned: NEW: The United States and Iran may hold a second round of negotiations this week amid the continued ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran likely aims to protract negotiations as long as possible in order to prepare for a potential resumption of conflict. More Key Takeaways: The United States began its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on March 13 as part of US efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not impeding freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to or from non-Iranian ports. US Central Command said on April 14 that no ships have made it past the US blockade since the blockade began, while six merchant vessels complied with US direction to remain at an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman instead of attempting to traverse the Strait. Western media has reported that some Iranian vessels and vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports traversed the strait, but this does not mean that these vessels bypassed the US blockade. The United States will likely interdict Iranian ships and ships transiting to or from Iranian ports in the Arabian sea, according to US officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal. It is also possible that these vessels transited the strait under the United States’ unspecified “grace period.” The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the United States will meet in Washington, DC, today. Lebanese officials have stated that the purpose of the talks is to discuss an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon and set a date to begin direct Israeli-Lebanese negotiations. Israel has refused to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah, however. Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon and northern Israel continue.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044107307399745919#m

Published: April 14, 2026 17:35

NEW: The United States and Iran may hold a second round of negotiations this week amid the continued ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran likely aims to protract negotiations as long as possible in order to prepare for a potential…

Korean Peninsula Update, April 14, 2026: North Korea invited PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Pyongyang for the first time since 2019 to discuss ways to deepen PRC-North Korea relations. The timing of this meeting and previous statements made by Kim Jong Un may suggest that North Korea wants the PRC to help facilitate future US-North Korea dialogue when Donald Trump meets with Xi Jinping. Other Key Takeaways: North Korea may deploy cluster munition warheads on its ballistic missiles to make them more difficult to intercept. This may indicate that North Korea is learning lessons from Iran’s war with the United States and Israel.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044099144000651335#m

Published: April 14, 2026 17:03

Korean Peninsula Update, April 14, 2026: North Korea invited PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Pyongyang for the first time since 2019 to discuss ways to deepen PRC-North Korea relations. The timing of this meeting and previous statements made by Kim…

MORE: Orban consistently opposed and undermined the EU’s efforts to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine, aligning with the Kremlin’s interests, and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally endorsed Orban in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. The Kremlin is likely downplaying the loss of its key ally in Europe to project confidence that Ukraine will still face pressure to accept Russia’s terms to end the war.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043852112363188617#m

Published: April 14, 2026 00:41

MORE: Orban consistently opposed and undermined the EU’s efforts to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine, aligning with the Kremlin’s interests, and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally endorsed Orban in the 2026 Hungarian…

Pinned: NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are likely responsible for at least some of the recent drone attacks against Gulf states. It is very unlikely that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct drone attacks against regional states if the Iranian regime opposed such attacks, which suggests that Iran has not ordered its militia partners to cease attacking regional states. Other Key Takeaways: The US negotiating delegation demanded a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, the removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile from Iran, and unfettered freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the negotiations in Pakistan. Iran countered the 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment with a “single-digit” number of years and offered to downblend its HEU instead of handing over its HEU stockpile. It is unclear whether the three US demands and the Iranian counterproposal represent the full scope of each side’s demands. US Central Command (CENTCOM) is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports and vessels while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels transiting to or from non-Iranian ports. CENTCOM implemented its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels at 10:00 AM ET on April 13. Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels continued to use the Iranian-approved transit route to cross the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade went into effect on April 13, but more vessels transited outside this route near the Omani coast than on April 12. At least two oil tankers destined for China via the Iranian-approved transit route turned around after CENTCOM began blockading Iranian and Iranian-approved shipping.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043844143097520454#m

Published: April 14, 2026 00:09

NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are likely responsible for at least some of the recent drone attacks against Gulf states. It is very unlikely that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct drone attacks against regional states if the Iranian regime…

NEW: The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally. Other Key Takeaways: An open-source analysis of Russian contract recruitment reports that Russian recruitment continues to decline as battlefield casualties rise, consistent with other indicators of Russian recruiting and manpower challenges that ISW has observed. Russian and Ukrainian officials issued competing Orthodox Easter ceasefire violation accusations, demonstrating the challenges of implementing a sustainable ceasefire without clearly defined terms, monitoring mechanisms, and dispute resolution mechanisms. Kremlin officials may be continuing to set rhetorical conditions to engage in operations in the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction. Ukrainian forces may have continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched 98 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043819366597230637#m

Published: April 13, 2026 22:31

NEW: The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally. Other Key Takeaways: An open-source analysis of Russian contract recruitment reports that Russian recruitment continues to decline as battlefield…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW| The United States is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for shipping not transiting to or from Iran. The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 10:00 AM ET on April 13. The US blockade focuses exclusively on maritime traffic entering or leaving any Iranian ports, including Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated on April 12 that US forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting through the strait to or from non-Iranian ports. Iranian officials have threatened to respond to the US blockade of Iranian ports. An Iranian military spokesperson stated on April 13 that no port in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman “will be safe” if the security of Iranian ports is “threatened.” Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser Mohsen Rezaei similarly threatened that Iran would counter the blockade. US negotiators, including Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, left Islamabad, Pakistan, after the United States and Iran did not reach an agreement during talks on April 11 and 12. The Iranian negotiating delegation similarly left Islamabad on April 12. A US official and regional source told Axios on April 13 that Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey will continue discussions with Iran and the United States to “bridge the remaining gaps.” These mediators aim to facilitate another round of negotiations between Iran and the United States before the two-week ceasefire ends on April 21.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043727815418286306#m

Published: April 13, 2026 16:27

NEW| The United States is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for shipping not transiting to or from Iran. The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 10:00 AM…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ The US Navy has deployed ships to clear the remaining naval mines and restore freedom of navigation. Some Gulf countries are also supporting mine-clearing efforts, according to Trump. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait on April 11 to set conditions for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy threatened the destroyers but did not attack them. The IRGC Navy has threatened that any military vessels in the Strait will be subject to a “decisive response.”

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043472718599770365#m

Published: April 12, 2026 23:33

2/ The US Navy has deployed ships to clear the remaining naval mines and restore freedom of navigation. Some Gulf countries are also supporting mine-clearing efforts, according to Trump. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait on April 11 to set…

MORE: The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. These Iranian-approved vessels are acceding to Iran’s protection racket and using Iran’s unilaterally imposed traffic separation scheme that forces vessels into Iranian territorial waters. Very few ships are transiting the Strait other than the ships moving through Iran’s territorial waters. Only one ship transited the Strait on April 12 and did not use the Iranian-approved shipping lanes by skirting the southern edge of the Iran-declared hazardous area. US President Donald Trump said on April 12 that the US Navy will “interdict every vessel” that has paid Iran for passage and indicated that enforcement of the blockade will begin soon. Iran has used threats of attacks and a limited number of mines to declare a “hazardous area” across the entire Strait of Hormuz except for Iranian territorial waters, where Iran then imposes fees.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043472715223347309#m

Published: April 12, 2026 23:33

MORE: The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. These Iranian-approved vessels are acceding to Iran’s protection racket and using Iran’s unilaterally imposed traffic separation scheme that forces…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ According to @CENTCOM, "the blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports." https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2043432050921718194?s=20

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043463225543721357#m

Published: April 12, 2026 22:56

3/ According to @CENTCOM, "the blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede…

NEW: The US Navy is attempting to prevent Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels from entering and exiting the Strait, while Iran prevents all other vessels from entering and exiting the Strait. The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. Very few ships are transiting the Strait other than the ships moving through Iran’s territorial waters. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: The United States and Iran did not reach an agreement during talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 and 12. US President Donald Trump emphasized on April 12 that Iran’s delegation did not make compromises on its nuclear program, but that he believed Iran would return to negotiations. Iran sought an all-encompassing agreement that would have transformed US-Iran relations in fundamental ways, while the United States appeared focused on specific issues related to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. The multiple competing Iranian factions with divergent priorities and objectives in negotiations that were part of the Iranian delegation also likely made reaching an agreement exceptionally difficult. Iran has not fired any munitions targeting the Gulf states since ISW-CTP’s last data cut off on April 11. Iranian fired a declining rate of missiles and drones targeting Gulf states since the ceasefire went into effect on April 8.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043450415010750641#m

Published: April 12, 2026 22:05

NEW: The US Navy is attempting to prevent Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels from entering and exiting the Strait, while Iran prevents all other vessels from entering and exiting the Strait. The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are…

Pinned: NEW: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations of the Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday on April 11 and 12. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces committed a war crime in Kharkiv Oblast, reportedly amid the Easter ceasefire on April 11. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction. Russian forces did not conduct any long-range drone or missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 11 to 12.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043440199682662855#m

Published: April 12, 2026 21:24

NEW: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations of the Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday on April 11 and 12. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces committed a war…

MORE: The lack of progress in the negotiations is unsurprising—Iran is seeking an all-encompassing agreement that would transform the US-Iran relationship and end the threat of future conflict. ⬇️ Iran brought over 70 diplomats, parliamentarians, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-adjacent figures, and high-level economic technocrats to the negotiations, which underscores Iran’s wide-ranging negotiating intentions. The United States seeks a much narrower agreement centered on the current war and the nuclear program. US Vice President JD Vance told reporters on April 12 that the United States is seeking reassurances that Iran will not attempt to quickly build a nuclear weapon. The US and Iranian negotiators did not reach an agreement on an Iranian counterproposal to US demands that Iran give up its highly-enriched uranium stockpile, according to Iranian officials.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043389183482355817#m

Published: April 12, 2026 18:02

MORE: The lack of progress in the negotiations is unsurprising—Iran is seeking an all-encompassing agreement that would transform the US-Iran relationship and end the threat of future conflict. ⬇️ Iran brought over 70 diplomats, parliamentarians, Islamic…

NEW: US President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy will prevent all vessels from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 after US negotiators left Islamabad without a US-Iran deal. Iran reportedly refused to concede its “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, which is Iran’s primary source of leverage, and would only open the Strait after a final peace agreement was made. Trump said that the US Navy will begin destroying the mines that Iran laid in the Strait. Iran is using the threat of its naval mines, of which there are reportedly fewer than a dozen, to keep the price of oil and shipping insurance as high as possible for as long as possible without conducting attacks that would cause the ceasefire to collapse. Trump also said that the United States will interdict every vessel that has paid tolls to Iran. Iran has been using the threat of attacks and naval mines to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which allows Iran to shakedown these ships for fees as part of a protection racket. The lack of progress in the negotiations is unsurprising—Iran is seeking an all-encompassing agreement that would transform the US-Iran relationship and end the threat of future conflict. Iran brought over 70 diplomats, parliamentarians, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-adjacent figures, and high-level economic technocrats to the negotiations, which underscores Iran’s wide-ranging negotiating intentions. The United States seeks a much narrower agreement centered on the current war and the nuclear program. US Vice President JD Vance told reporters on April 12 that the United States is seeking reassurances that Iran will not attempt to quickly build a nuclear weapon. The US and Iranian negotiators did not reach an agreement on an Iranian counterproposal to US demands that Iran give up its highly-enriched uranium stockpile, according to Iranian officials. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the war with Iran in its April 12 Iran Update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043354958754414917#m

Published: April 12, 2026 15:46

NEW: US President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy will prevent all vessels from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 after US negotiators left Islamabad without a US-Iran deal. Iran reportedly refused to concede its “control” over…