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🦜 Institute for the Study of War / @TheStudyofWar

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RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW | The IDF struck an apartment in Dahiyeh this morning in response to Hezbollah’s recent attacks on northern Israel. Here’s what that means for a US-Iran deal to end the war: IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs have become a flashpoint in US-Iran negotiations. Israeli leaders have warned they would strike Hezbollah targets there if Hezbollah attacked northern Israel. Iran, in turn, has repeatedly warned it would attack Israel if the IDF struck Beirut. Iran fired several ballistic missiles at an Israeli air base last week in response to an IDF strike there. Iran’s top operational headquarters warned that Israel’s strikes “will not go unanswered.” These threats are consistent with the hardline posture that has defined Iran’s decision-making under IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi. Vahidi reportedly convinced Iran’s national security council to strike Israel last week despite concerns from “more moderate voices” that Israeli strikes would scuttle a possible deal with the United States, according to Iranian and Arab officials. It is unclear if Iranian strikes at Israel would actually hamper the deal’s current momentum, however. Iran’s missile attack on Israel on June 7 was designed to avoid a resumption of full-scale war, and the exchange of fire did not actually derail the US-Iran talks, which Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said they expected to be signed today. The IRGC denied yesterday that a deal was likely to be signed today, calling it a “test” for negotiators. Qatari negotiators flew to Tehran this morning to work to finalize the agreement. ISW-CTP will provide additional analysis on the current status of the war in our evening update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2066185488478695557#m

Published: June 14, 2026 15:46

NEW | The IDF struck an apartment in Dahiyeh this morning in response to Hezbollah’s recent attacks on northern Israel. Here’s what that means for a US-Iran deal to end the war: IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs have become a…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Iran is likely attempting to structure the MoU and the phasing of a final agreement to reduce US leverage before later negotiations over the nuclear program. Iranian media appears to be portraying a possible MoU as a tactical pause in the war rather than a final settlement.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065979017077887080#m

Published: June 14, 2026 02:05

2/ Iran is likely attempting to structure the MoU and the phasing of a final agreement to reduce US leverage before later negotiations over the nuclear program. Iranian media appears to be portraying a possible MoU as a tactical pause in the war rather…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s readout of the MoU is largely consistent with IRGC-affiliated media’s readout of the latest possible agreement, which may indicate a growing consensus among Iranian regime leaders on Iran’s red lines for negotiations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065979018810159258#m

Published: June 14, 2026 02:05

3/ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s readout of the MoU is largely consistent with IRGC-affiliated media’s readout of the latest possible agreement, which may indicate a growing consensus among Iranian regime leaders on Iran’s red lines for…

MORE: Other issues—like when Iran can access frozen funds and how much it will be able to access—remain issues in negotiations as well. There also appear to be some disagreements between Iran and the United States over the Iranian nuclear program, but it is unclear what specific disagreements exist.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065979014766874893#m

Published: June 14, 2026 02:05

MORE: Other issues—like when Iran can access frozen funds and how much it will be able to access—remain issues in negotiations as well. There also appear to be some disagreements between Iran and the United States over the Iranian nuclear program, but it…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Special Report: How Iran Hopes to Control the Strait of Hormuz: It’s Not Just About Fees

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065960317968879884#m

Published: June 14, 2026 00:51

2/ Special Report: How Iran Hopes to Control the Strait of Hormuz: It’s Not Just About Fees Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) NEW | Special Report: How Iran Hopes to Control the Strait of Hormuz: It’s Not Just About Fees One of Iran’s…

Pinned: MORE: An “open” strait under Iranian management is not a return to the pre-war status quo and would mean that Iran has accomplished a key war aim. ⬇️ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the strait at length and noted that it is under Iranian and Omani sovereignty and that both countries will collect fees after the MoU. Iran will also manage the strait. Araghchi rejected the term “tolls” but defended Iran charging “service“ fees for passage through the strait, which is effectively an attempt to rebrand Iran’s protection racket as legal administration. Araghchi added that Iran would provide safe passage through the strait for civilian vessels but create separate arrangements for military vessels. This system of management is at odds with both US policy and long-established maritime legal precedent. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said, for example, that the strait must be open with no fees or Iranian management. A US official told Reuters that the agreement would “open” the strait, but an “open” strait under Iranian management would be very detrimental to US interests, as ISW-CTP has previously argued in @brian_cartr's essay in the post below. Iran also continues to use force in an attempt to impose the reality that it controls the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on June 12 that US forces intercepted multiple Iranian drones targeting commercial vessels in the strait. Iranian media separately reported explosions near Qeshm and Sirik islands and said the sounds came from warning shots that Iranian forces fired to enforce control over the strait.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065960314970009712#m

Published: June 14, 2026 00:51

MORE: An “open” strait under Iranian management is not a return to the pre-war status quo and would mean that Iran has accomplished a key war aim. ⬇️ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the strait at length and noted that it is under…

NEW: Iranian statements regarding the contents of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) indicate that some terms of the agreement are at odds with stated US positions on the Strait of Hormuz in recent months. The agreement has two parts: a first stage that deals with an “end to the war” on all fronts, a resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic benefits for Iran, including reconstruction funds, sanctions relief, release of frozen funds, and an end to the US blockade. The second stage would deal with the nuclear issue and “one or two other [unspecified] issues.” Other Key Takeaways: Iran is likely attempting to structure the MoU and the phasing of a final agreement to reduce US leverage before later negotiations over the nuclear program. Iran is attempting to access at least some of its frozen assets early in the MoU process, for example, which would give it some economic relief before nuclear talks begin. Iranian media appears to be portraying a possible MoU as a tactical pause in the war rather than a final settlement. The Ghalibaf-affiliated Khorasan outlet argued on June 13 that the emerging agreement only aims to end the current war and does not resolve the underlying issues between Iran and the United States. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s readout of the MoU is largely consistent with IRGC-affiliated media’s readout of the latest possible agreement, which may indicate a growing consensus among Iranian regime leaders on Iran’s red lines for negotiations. That Araghchi’s June 12 readout and IRGC media’s account of the latest US-Iran MoU are very similar suggests that Vahidi or elements close to him may have successfully driven consensus on their preferred policy outcomes.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065954733706063873#m

Published: June 14, 2026 00:29

NEW: Iranian statements regarding the contents of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) indicate that some terms of the agreement are at odds with stated US positions on the Strait of Hormuz in recent months. The agreement has two parts: a first…

NEW: Russian forces are increasing the production rate and modernization of their ballistic missiles and drones. Available information suggests that Russia’s monthly missile production surpasses the US’s monthly PAC-3 Patriot air defense interceptor missile production. Other Key Takeaways: Russia’s increasingly large and diverse strike packages highlight the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. Russia is reportedly increasing its military spending even as Russian revenues decrease. Unknown actors attempted to assassinate a former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) official with an improvised explosive device (IED) on June 12. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on June 13. Russian forces launched 118 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces struck energy and military infrastructure in Russia overnight.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065952576906944627#m

Published: June 14, 2026 00:20

NEW: Russian forces are increasing the production rate and modernization of their ballistic missiles and drones. Available information suggests that Russia’s monthly missile production surpasses the US’s monthly PAC-3 Patriot air defense interceptor…

R to @TheStudyofWar: ISW-CTP will provide more analysis on the latest in Iran talks in our June 13 update this evening. Our latest analysis is available here: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate061226

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065824984337965265#m

Published: June 13, 2026 15:53

ISW-CTP will provide more analysis on the latest in Iran talks in our June 13 update this evening. Our latest analysis is available here: isw.pub/IranUpdate061226

NEW | Recent statements by Iranian and US officials suggest that Iran and the United States are still at odds over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has repeatedly clarified that its position is that Iran cannot control or charge fees or tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran will seek to levy fees on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and administer the strait. A US official speaking to Reuters said that the deal meets Trump’s “core objectives” and that Iran would “open” the strait in return for the US releasing frozen Iranian assets and waiving sanctions on oil exports. Trump previously rejected a plan under which Oman and Iran would charge a joint toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear how a toll differs from a fee, and Iranian management of an international waterway would represent a major change in long-established maritime legal precedent.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065824982425280878#m

Published: June 13, 2026 15:53

NEW | Recent statements by Iranian and US officials suggest that Iran and the United States are still at odds over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has repeatedly clarified that its position is that Iran cannot control or charge fees or tolls in the…

NEW: Russian forces may launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine in the next 24 to 48 hours. Other Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to posture Russian military strength during Russia’s June 12 Russia Day holiday while also acknowledging some of the battlefield setbacks Russian forces have faced in recent months. A Russian State Duma Deputy from the Communist Party criticized the Kremlin and the broader Russian war-waging strategy ahead of Russia Day, contradicting the Kremlin's narrative. Russian sources released several pieces of footage showing Russian forces operating in Kostyantynivka as part of a deliberate cognitive warfare effort to exaggerate the Russian presence in the city. Russian forces continue to make tactical gains within Kostyantynivka and Ukraine’s ability to defend the southeastern sections of the city is deteriorating, however. Russian forces continue making tactical gains in Kostyantynivka — Russia’s assessed main effort for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive — and have likely consolidated some tactical positions within the city beyond infiltration. These gains have taken Russian forces a long time to achieve and have come at a great cost. Russian forces will likely make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka in Summer 2026 but remain unlikely to achieve a rapid operational breakthrough against the Fortress Belt writ large. Russia is building at least five long-range drone launch sites in western Russia close to the border with Belarus likely to support drone strikes against Ukraine, possibly by exploiting Belarusian airspace. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in the Oleksandrivka direction. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure on the night of June 11 and 12. Russian forces launched 117 drones against Ukraine overnight.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065610073980756292#m

Published: June 13, 2026 01:39

NEW: Russian forces may launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine in the next 24 to 48 hours. Other Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to posture Russian military strength during Russia’s June 12 Russia Day…

Pinned: NEW: Persistent internal disagreements remain among Iranian regime leaders over the concessions that the regime should accept in negotiations with the United States. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle appear to continue to seek an agreement that meets Iranian maximalist demands and would be tantamount to a US surrender. Other Iranian officials appear to have disputed a draft memorandum leaked by IRGC-linked and state media. Other Key Takeaways: Conflicting US and Iranian accounts of the MoU suggest that the United States and Iran remain far apart on several core issues, however. It remains unclear whether these public statements accurately reflect each side’s negotiating position or the contents of the agreement, given competition between the IRGC and the formal negotiating team. Iranian statements and Iran’s continued use of force and coercion in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the regime remains unwilling to relinquish its claims to control over the waterway. Any US-Iran agreement must require Iran to abandon efforts to establish long-term authority over the strait. Iranian forces continue to employ coercive measures to force vessels to transit through Iran’s illegal traffic separation scheme and comply with its protection racket. Hezbollah’s efforts to decentralize its military structure may be enabling the group to conduct more effective defenses of specific areas in southern Lebanon than it was able to muster in Fall 2024. The IRGC reportedly reorganized Hezbollah’s C2 system starting in late 2024, and the shift towards unit independence and mobility would theoretically enable Hezbollah fighters to execute more effective defenses against Israeli advances in several sectors across southern Lebanon. “IRGC-linked” figures acting on Iran’s behalf reportedly warned unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders to resist surrendering militia weapons to the Iraqi state in the days after Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi’s successful formation of a new government in May 2026. Iran’s reported opposition to Iraqi militia disarmament at this time conflicts with several other reports that Iran has encouraged some Iraqi militias to end their kinetic operations in exchange for solidifying Iranian-backed Iraqi control over the Iraqi state, however.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065587003748413734#m

Published: June 13, 2026 00:08

NEW: Persistent internal disagreements remain among Iranian regime leaders over the concessions that the regime should accept in negotiations with the United States. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his…

NEW: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping met with WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un from June 8 to 9 in Xi’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2019. Xi’s calls for closer cooperation between the PRC and North Korea and likely tacit acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear status reflect PRC efforts to maintain positive relations with North Korea amid closer alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. Other Key Takeaways: KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun finished her US visit on June 12. Cheng met with US policy makers and academics and espoused standard KMT talking points and some rhetoric reminiscent of PRC statements. The PRC MoT conducted a “special maritime law enforcement operation” east of Taiwan from June 6 to 10 to assert PRC jurisdiction over the disputed waters, contesting Japanese-Philippine talks to delimit their overlapping EEZ claims. The exercise was likely intended to reinforce PRC claims over Taiwan and to exercise PRC A2AD operations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065537301707378833#m

Published: June 12, 2026 20:50

NEW: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping met with WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un from June 8 to 9 in Xi’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2019. Xi’s calls for closer cooperation between the PRC and North Korea and likely tacit acceptance of North Korea’s…

Pinned: NEW: US, Iranian, and diplomatic sources have published contradictory reports about the details of the draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). The conflicting reports indicate that there is significant disagreement between the two sides as well as within Iran. IRGC-affiliated media published a version of the MoU that would be tantamount to a US surrender and includes all key Iranian demands, including “management” of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and a US-developed reconstruction plan for Iran. Top Iranian and US officials — including Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, US President Donald Trump, and US Vice President JD Vance — disputed the accuracy of these reports. An ultra-hardline Iranian parliamentarian said that the deal strips Iran of its ability to collect fees or manage traffic in the strait, which indicates that some ultra-hardliners also believe that the IRGC-affiliated media reports about the details of the agreement are incorrect. US sources have also suggested that Iran would make concessions under the draft MoU. A US official speaking to CNN claimed that the draft MoU includes provisions to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and end Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. Most other reports have stated that Iran and the United States would negotiate nuclear issues during a 60-day period after the signing of an agreement. Iran has consistently sought to strip the United States of its leverage—such as the US blockade—before entering nuclear negotiations. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis about the negotiations in its June 12 update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065475468220936480#m

Published: June 12, 2026 16:45

NEW: US, Iranian, and diplomatic sources have published contradictory reports about the details of the draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). The conflicting reports indicate that there is significant disagreement between the two sides as well as…

We are now accepting Fall 2026 Internship Applications! Join a community of young professionals interested in careers in national security and intelligence. From practicing your analytic tradecraft skills to directly contributing to ISW’s mission on our various research portfolios, you will build relationships that will shape your career in DC and beyond. We are looking for critical thinkers who are ready to challenge themselves and work with a committed team of experts. Students and recent graduates are encouraged to apply. We are offering the following programs this fall: Russia Occupation Research China & Taiwan Intelligence Analysis Korean Peninsula Intelligence Analysis Middle East Intelligence Analysis Cognitive Warfare Project Geospatial Intelligence and National Security Technologies Communications

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065471701471601039#m

Published: June 12, 2026 16:30

We are now accepting Fall 2026 Internship Applications! Join a community of young professionals interested in careers in national security and intelligence. From practicing your analytic tradecraft skills to directly contributing to ISW’s mission on our…

MORE: Ukrainian forces appear to have achieved a tactical drone overmatch on the battlefield and are intensifying their middle-range strike campaign, reportedly driving higher Russian casualties on the battlefield amidst declining recruitment rates.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065464140865458659#m

Published: June 12, 2026 16:00

MORE: Ukrainian forces appear to have achieved a tactical drone overmatch on the battlefield and are intensifying their middle-range strike campaign, reportedly driving higher Russian casualties on the battlefield amidst declining recruitment rates. …

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW | Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forces clashed with opposition forces in Mogadishu, marking an escalation in their constitutional and electoral dispute. Clashes between the two parties in Mogadishu will likely continue to intensify in the immediate term, although there is growing international pressure on both sides to compromise on their maximalist political positions. 🧵⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2065427516576211081#m

Published: June 12, 2026 13:34

NEW | Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forces clashed with opposition forces in Mogadishu, marking an escalation in their constitutional and electoral dispute. Clashes between the two parties in Mogadishu will likely continue to intensify in the…

MORE: Ukrainian forces are increasing their mid-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs across occupied southern Ukraine, disrupting Russia’s ability to safely use supply routes from southwestern Russia to occupied Crimea. Continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian GLOCs will likely have cascading battlefield effects and may complicate Russian preparations for offensive operations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065269106173964621#m

Published: June 12, 2026 03:05

MORE: Ukrainian forces are increasing their mid-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs across occupied southern Ukraine, disrupting Russia’s ability to safely use supply routes from southwestern Russia to occupied Crimea. Continued Ukrainian strikes…

NEW: Ukrainian forces continue to interdict several bridges that support ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Kherson Oblast to Crimea. Other Key Takeaways: Russian occupation authorities are struggling to address worsening gasoline shortages in occupied Sevastopol, likely due to Ukrainian long- and intermediate-range strikes against Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. Ukrainian forces appear to have achieved a tactical drone overmatch on the battlefield and are intensifying middle-range strike campaign, reportedly driving higher Russian casualties on the battlefield amidst declining recruitment rates. Russia is establishing new and expanding existing military bases along its northern border with NATO likely in order to support future Russian force projection capabilities against NATO. ISW assesses that Russian forces remain unlikely to conduct ground operations in the near-term, however. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to fabricate evidence as part of its cognitive warfare effort to support false claims of advance. Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate- to long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on June 10 and 11. Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 221 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065250131700511058#m

Published: June 12, 2026 01:49

NEW: Ukrainian forces continue to interdict several bridges that support ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Kherson Oblast to Crimea. Other Key Takeaways: Russian occupation authorities are struggling to address worsening gasoline…

Pinned: NEW: The Iranian regime is using information operations to magnify the informational effect of its strikes as part of an effort to compel the United States to accept an agreement that is relatively advantageous to Iran. Other Key Takeaways: Iran does not view the current phase in the conflict as negotiations in pursuit of a deal; it believes it is at war and that war will end with a deal. The Iranian regime likely assesses that the United States does not seek a return to the conflict. Iran’s campaign seeks to leverage US fears about a return to conflict. The regime has almost certainly observed and reacted to US statements in the Western press. Iran is attempting to reinforce what it appears to believe is a US reticence to resume the war by claiming that it is unwilling to yield to US military pressure. Iran’s strikes on US bases and assets are also designed to have primarily informational and economic effects, rather than military effects. Iran continues to demonstrate that it is unwilling to yield to US military pressure and come to an agreement. Iran also knows that not conceding and amplifying its denial imposes political and economic cost on the United States as well. Iran’s announcement that it has “closed” the Strait of Hormuz is an extension of Iran’s information operation to heighten political and economic pressure on the United States by amplifying its military operations in the region. It remains unclear whether Iran’s statement will translate into changes to its existing coercive maritime behavior. The United States attempted to degrade Iran’s ability to sense, target, and strike vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz and US air assets protecting their transit in its second round of airstrikes in two days on June 10. The United States continued to enforce its blockade on Iranian ports as part of its economic pressure campaign on Iran. US forces disabled the Guinea-Bissau-flagged oil tanker M/V Jalveer on June 10 after the vessel attempted to violate the US blockade and transport Iranian oil outside of Iran.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065228969327120770#m

Published: June 12, 2026 00:25

NEW: The Iranian regime is using information operations to magnify the informational effect of its strikes as part of an effort to compel the United States to accept an agreement that is relatively advantageous to Iran. Other Key Takeaways: Iran does…

We are hiring! ISW is looking for a Development Associate who will assist with fundraising efforts that support our mission. This role requires an organized professional with at least 2 years of development experience. You will have the opportunity to work alongside ISW leadership in driving meaningful donor communications, development operations, and data management. Apply today: https://understandingwar.bamboohr.com/careers/236

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2065094205945344444#m

Published: June 11, 2026 15:30

We are hiring! ISW is looking for a Development Associate who will assist with fundraising efforts that support our mission. This role requires an organized professional with at least 2 years of development experience. You will have the opportunity to…

MORE: The Kremlin’s volunteer recruitment campaign continues to show signs of strain under the pressure of high battlefield losses and rising economic costs. The Kremlin continues attempts to nationalize private assets of Russian citizens, likely to support state revenues and the costly war effort in Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064927353441312969#m

Published: June 11, 2026 04:27

MORE: The Kremlin’s volunteer recruitment campaign continues to show signs of strain under the pressure of high battlefield losses and rising economic costs. The Kremlin continues attempts to nationalize private assets of Russian citizens, likely to…

MORE: Ukrainian forces conducted a FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike overnight on June 9 and 10 against a Russian military plant that produces key components for Shahed drones and missiles. Ukrainian forces conducted an almost identical F-5 Flamingo missile strike against the Russian VNIIR-Progress Plant on May 5 and the missile strike on June 10 demonstrates Ukraine’s increasing ability to sustain and intensify long-range strikes against key Russian military facilities. Ukrainian forces also continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on the night of June 9 to June 10. Ukrainian forces have been successfully intensifying the scope and scale of their long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in Russia over the last several months, exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses. Ukrainian strikes against Russian fuel storage tanks will likely intensify the spread of fuel shortages in Russia that have already begun in some Russian regions and parts of occupied Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064916784373776788#m

Published: June 11, 2026 03:45

MORE: Ukrainian forces conducted a FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike overnight on June 9 and 10 against a Russian military plant that produces key components for Shahed drones and missiles. Ukrainian forces conducted an almost identical F-5 Flamingo…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Ukrainian forces also recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces launched 207 drones against Ukraine overnight. Full assessment: https://isw.pub/UkrWar061026

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064908505945948452#m

Published: June 11, 2026 03:12

2/ Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Ukrainian forces also recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces launched 207 drones against Ukraine overnight. Full assessment:…

NEW: Russian forces recently made tactical gains in Kostyantynivka – Russia’s assessed main effort for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. Russian forces began their campaign for Kostyantynivka in Summer 2025 after completing the seizures of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk – settlements northeast and southeast of Kostyantynivka, respectively. Russian forces have failed to seize Kostyantynivka by May 2026 despite committing additional reinforcements and mechanized equipment to the area. Russian forces will likely make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka in Summer 2026 but are unlikely to make operational gains against the Fortress Belt writ large.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064908503337025638#m

Published: June 11, 2026 03:12

NEW: Russian forces recently made tactical gains in Kostyantynivka – Russia’s assessed main effort for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. Russian forces began their campaign for Kostyantynivka in Summer 2025 after completing the seizures of Chasiv Yar and…

Pinned: NEW: ISW and @criticalthreats are monitoring reports of additional US strikes in Iran as of 5:36 PM ET on June 10. We will provide more details on the US strikes in our June 11 morning thread and evening update. MORE ⬇️ ▪️ Iran is using force, combined with the threat to suspend US-Iran negotiations, to try to deter the United States from conducting further attacks on Iran that would likely make it more difficult for Iran to achieve its strategic objectives, which include solidifying control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving the Axis of Resistance. US forces struck around 20 targets in southern Iran, including air defenses, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites, on June 9 in response to Iran’s drone attack that downed a US Apache helicopter off the coast of Oman on June 8. ▪️ Iran has repeatedly used calibrated force as part of a series of campaigns to try to achieve its strategic objectives. Iran launched missiles at Israel on June 7 to pressure US President Donald Trump to convince Israel to halt its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. These attacks were part of a broader Iranian effort to preserve Hezbollah, which it views as a key pillar of its deterrence strategy vis-a-vis Israel and the United States.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064842318159491282#m

Published: June 10, 2026 22:49

NEW: ISW and @criticalthreats are monitoring reports of additional US strikes in Iran as of 5:36 PM ET on June 10. We will provide more details on the US strikes in our June 11 morning thread and evening update. MORE ⬇️ ▪️ Iran is using force, combined…

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https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064780133215424997#m

Published: June 10, 2026 18:42

2/ Are you a skilled fundraiser looking to make a big impact? Take the next step in your career, and apply today: understandingwar.bamboohr.co…

We’re hiring! ISW is looking for a Major Gifts Officer to drive strategic donor engagement and play a key role in advancing our mission. The ideal candidate will be a professional with 5+ years of experience building strong relationships, communicating effectively, and cultivating impactful partnerships with supporters capable of gifts of $25,000 or more. This is a unique opportunity to collaborate closely with senior leadership while contributing to the work of a leading national security and public policy organization. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064779882404491760#m

Published: June 10, 2026 18:41

We’re hiring! ISW is looking for a Major Gifts Officer to drive strategic donor engagement and play a key role in advancing our mission. The ideal candidate will be a professional with 5+ years of experience building strong relationships, communicating…

NEW | US President Donald Trump said this morning that he may soon order new strikes on targets in Iran due to Iran’s prolongment of negotiations. Trump warned that Iran would “pay the price” for delaying an agreement. The Iranian regime has attempted to drag out the talks and delay any substantive negotiations over its nuclear program or control over the Strait of Hormuz by demanding US concessions and pre-conditions. One of these pre-conditions has been the Iranian demand for a complete ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump’s threats to order new strikes follow the largest exchange of fire between the United States and Iran since the ceasefire began in early April. The US military struck over 20 Iranian air defense sites, ground control stations, surveillance radar sites, and possibly other targets in southern Iran last night. CENTCOM framed the strikes as a "proportional response" to Iran’s downing of a US Apache helicopter in the Gulf of Oman yesterday. An Iranian drone downed the aircraft, though Iran has not claimed responsibility for the incident yet. Iran likely targeted the Apache due to the role Apache gunships can play in air defense against Iranian drones over the strait or in intercepting Iranian fast attack craft. Iran retaliated to US strikes in southern Iran by launching ballistic missiles and drones targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. There do not appear to be any casualties from Iran’s attacks. Trump said that he might order strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges in Iran if Iran’s approach to the negotiations does not change. A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran today to discuss an agreement with regime officials. Iranian officials have not indicated any willingness to make concessions or speed up the talks since the US strikes on southern Iran, however. ISW-CTP will provide additional analysis on the current status of the war in our June 10 update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064742357828829288#m

Published: June 10, 2026 16:11

NEW | US President Donald Trump said this morning that he may soon order new strikes on targets in Iran due to Iran’s prolongment of negotiations. Trump warned that Iran would “pay the price” for delaying an agreement. The Iranian regime has attempted to…

As global events continue to change, ISW's assessments continue to remain independent. We do not accept any foreign or government funding. Our research is supported by people like you, who value fact-based and accessible analysis.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064724355012030491#m

Published: June 10, 2026 15:00

As global events continue to change, ISW's assessments continue to remain independent. We do not accept any foreign or government funding. Our research is supported by people like you, who value fact-based and accessible analysis.

MORE: Ukraine’s expanding intermediate-range strike campaign against Russia’s major ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and against railway infrastructure in occupied Ukraine since Spring 2026 is disrupting Russia’s military logistics and very likely degrading sustainment for Russian frontline forces — an effect which will likely continue to mature in the near future or until Russian forces develop countermeasures. Ukraine will likely further expand and intensify its intermediate-range strike campaign, which will likely have cascading effects on Russian offensive operations in the coming months, especially as Ukraine’s efforts to shape the battlefield mature.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064709170276761620#m

Published: June 10, 2026 14:00

MORE: Ukraine’s expanding intermediate-range strike campaign against Russia’s major ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and against railway infrastructure in occupied Ukraine since Spring 2026 is disrupting Russia’s military logistics and very likely…

NEW: The Kremlin is seeking to delegitimize the results of Armenia’s June 8 parliamentary elections, in which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party won a majority of the vote. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian military command reportedly prohibited military cargo traffic along Russia’s main highway connecting mainland Russia to Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes. Unknown actors conducted a car bomb attack in Balashikha, Moscow City, that reportedly killed a high-ranking Russian officer. Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian military assets on June 8 and June 9. Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 166 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064529839785209908#m

Published: June 10, 2026 02:07

NEW: The Kremlin is seeking to delegitimize the results of Armenia’s June 8 parliamentary elections, in which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party won a majority of the vote. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian military command…

Pinned: MORE: Recent statements from senior Iranian officials and regime-affiliated media suggest that Iran believes that it is at war—not in a ceasefire—and views military action as a tactic to improve its negotiating position to serve the regime’s strategic objectives. Iranian officials appear to be calibrating their response to avoid triggering a major US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does not want to return to war. Avoiding a return to large-scale operations is beneficial for Iran because it allows Iran to drag out the economic and political pressure on the United States and Israel. Iran faces its own economic pressure due to war damages and the US Navy blockade, but the Iranian regime only cares about economic damage insofar as it damages the regime’s parochial interests and threatens regime security. The recent escalation in Lebanon is also emblematic of this Iranian approach. Pressure from Trump on Netanyahu resulted in limited Israeli strikes that were carefully calibrated to avoid war, rather than restore deterrence vis-à-vis Iran. Such reports would increase Iranian confidence that Trump wants to avoid war. Trump’s pressure on Israel increases the political risk of any strike in Beirut, thus limiting Israel’s ability to degrade Hezbollah and threaten a key pillar of Iranian deterrence. These strikes and Iranian efforts to link a complete ceasefire in Lebanon to a US-Iran ceasefire are part of an Iranian effort to secure a key objective, the survival of Hezbollah, and simultaneously distract the United States from discussions of Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian efforts to control the strait and aim to reduce US leverage before negotiations on such issues.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064526632375701601#m

Published: June 10, 2026 01:54

MORE: Recent statements from senior Iranian officials and regime-affiliated media suggest that Iran believes that it is at war—not in a ceasefire—and views military action as a tactic to improve its negotiating position to serve the regime’s strategic…

Pinned: NEW: The Iranian regime is attempting to use calibrated force in an attempt to extract concessions from the United States without triggering a full-scale US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does not want to return to war. Other Key Takeaways: Iran is using force against US forces near the Strait of Hormuz, likely in an effort to deter US forces from operating in the Strait of Hormuz for any reason. An Iranian drone downed a US Army AH-64 Apache gunship near the coast of Oman on June 8. This use of force is designed to achieve the Iranian war aim of asserting its control over the strait. US President Donald Trump emphasized that the United States must respond to the Iranian attack. ISW-CTP is monitoring reports of a “proportional” US response as of 5:50 PM ET on June 9. ISW-CTP will provide more details on the US response in its June 10 morning thread and evening update. The Houthis continue to threaten to restrict commercial shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, but they have not yet conducted attacks to realize these threats. Hezbollah and Iran appear not to have effectively deterred Israel from striking Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064507645239885962#m

Published: June 10, 2026 00:39

NEW: The Iranian regime is attempting to use calibrated force in an attempt to extract concessions from the United States without triggering a full-scale US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: The Iranian regime is attempting to use calibrated force in an attempt to extract concessions from the United States without triggering a full-scale US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does not want to return to war.

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2064488976908472768#m

Published: June 9, 2026 23:25

The Iranian regime is attempting to use calibrated force in an attempt to extract concessions from the United States without triggering a full-scale US response. Iran has likely designed this new approach based on an assessment that the United States does…

NEW: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang from June 8 to 9 to discuss strengthening cooperation with North Korea across sectors. Xi did not mention denuclearization during the summit, which could represent tacit PRC acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear status. Other Key Takeaways: North Korean state media released images of a new nuclear facility on June 4, reflecting North Korean efforts to significantly enhance its nuclear deterrent. North Korean nuclear expansion indicates that North Korea does not intend to negotiate on denuclearization, which remains a key objective for South Korea and the United States. South Korean Elections: South Korea’s ruling DP won sweeping victories in the June 3 local elections and National Assembly by-elections, maintaining the DP’s parliamentary majority and cementing DP control over local governments. These victories reflect widespread support for the Lee administration, though the opposition PPP won the Seoul governorship and maintained its control over traditional conservative strongholds.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064452396055671199#m

Published: June 9, 2026 20:59

NEW: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang from June 8 to 9 to discuss strengthening cooperation with North Korea across sectors. Xi did not mention denuclearization during the summit, which could represent tacit PRC acceptance of North…

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted strikes targeting Hezbollah sites in Tyre, southern Lebanon, as part of its ongoing campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. These strikes do not constitute an escalation or inflection because the IDF has repeatedly struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including in Tyre, during the current conflict. The US-mediated ceasefire that Israel agreed to last week did not include Israeli operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which is why Iran and Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire. Iran and Hezbollah seek to achieve Israeli capitulation in Lebanon by forcing Israel to cease operations and withdraw from Lebanese territory. The IDF strikes come after Iran’s top operational headquarters warned yesterday that Iran would retaliate against any Israeli attack against Hezbollah, including IDF attacks in southern Lebanon. Iran has not responded to the IDF strikes in Tyre at this time. Iran’s threat to respond to any Israeli action against Hezbollah is intended to pressure the United States to push Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah as part of Iran’s broader objective to preserve Hezbollah. The threat is also likely meant to inject uncertainty into Israeli military decision-making vis-a-vis Hezbollah. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis about Iranian calculus in its June 9 update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064363887739261341#m

Published: June 9, 2026 15:07

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted strikes targeting Hezbollah sites in Tyre, southern Lebanon, as part of its ongoing campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. These strikes do not constitute an escalation or inflection because the IDF…

Pinned: NEW: The Iranian regime is attempting to use force and the threat of force to establish a strategic reality in which any Israeli or US attack on an Iranian proxy or partner would result in a large-scale conflict that would seek to impose significant economic and political costs on Israel and the United States. The recent exchange of fire comes as the Iranian regime appears to be placing renewed emphasis on the importance of the Axis of Resistance, and particularly Lebanese Hezbollah, as a central pillar of Iranian deterrence. Other Key Takeaways: The Iranian regime likely seeks to pressure the United States to limit Israel’s operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon by threatening to conduct large-scale attacks against Israel. Hezbollah likely seeks to benefit from Iranian deterrence because Iran’s threat to respond to any Israeli attack against Hezbollah injects uncertainty into Israel’s decision-making process for military operations against Hezbollah. The recent Iranian strikes on Israel and Iran’s renewed emphasis on the Axis of Resistance reflect how the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) likely continues to dominate regime decision-making. The regime’s renewed emphasis on Hezbollah and the broader Axis of Resistance, coupled with its lower threshold for direct military conflict, likely reflects Vahidi’s efforts to preserve and reinforce what he likely views as one of Iran’s most valuable forms of deterrence. The IDF responded to the Iranian strikes on northern Israel by attacking Iranian air defense and ballistic missile sites in central and western Iran. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) accounts on X and anti-regime media reported strikes against other Iranian military facilities, including drone storage and production facilities in Tehran and Esfahan provinces, respectively. The Houthis announced on June 8 that they will target Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, but have not yet acted on this threat at the time of this writing. Any Houthi attack on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea would likely seek to impose costs on Israel while remaining below the threshold that would trigger a US response. Houthi attacks on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea would complement Iran’s broader effort to pressure international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and increase costs on regional and global commerce. The Houthis launched at least two ballistic missiles targeting central Israel on June 8, which is consistent with the group’s “limited” involvement in the current war. The Houthis claimed that they launched a ballistic missile salvo at Tel Aviv and other unspecified areas of central Israel on June 8. The IDF stated that it intercepted one missile while a second missile landed near the Yemeni–Saudi border, according to the Saudi Defense Ministry.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064152346859336036#m

Published: June 9, 2026 01:07

NEW: The Iranian regime is attempting to use force and the threat of force to establish a strategic reality in which any Israeli or US attack on an Iranian proxy or partner would result in a large-scale conflict that would seek to impose significant…

MORE: Ukraine’s expanding intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine appears to be generating battlefield effects, which will likely continue to mature in the near future. ⬇️ Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group Atesh reported on June 8 that one of its agents in the headquarters of the Russian Dnepr Group of Forces reported that elements of the Russian 337th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (104th VDV Division) are abandoning their positions on the northern and western parts of the Kinburn Spit due to “completely disrupted” supplies. The agent reported that ammunition, fuel, and food deliveries have stopped, that Russian forces on the spit have been unable to repel Ukrainian drone strikes, and that Russian losses have been growing. The agent reported that the Russian military command has begun redeploying an unspecified number of troops from the 337th VDV Regiment to an unspecified part of the “Zaporizhia sector” (possibly referring to the Orikhiv or Hulyaipole directions), but that the remaining elements on the Kinburn Spit are “virtually depleted” due to the lack of replenishment and can no longer defend the spit. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on June 8 that he could neither confirm nor deny the Atesh report but stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations to establish fire control over Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in occupied Kherson Oblast so Russian withdrawals from the Kinburn Spit are possible. Russian forces have previously used their limited positions on the Kinburn Spit to conduct artillery strikes against Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast (four kilometers from the tip of the spit across the Dniprovska Gulf).

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064138627991364054#m

Published: June 9, 2026 00:12

MORE: Ukraine’s expanding intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine appears to be generating battlefield effects, which will likely continue to mature in the near future. ⬇️ Crimea-based Ukrainian…

NEW: The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to reject peace negotiations with Ukraine despite recent repeated Ukrainian offers for direct negotiations. NATO forces downed a drone over Latvia for the first time on June 8 after Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems diverted it into Latvian airspace. Russian forces launched 155 drones against Ukraine overnight.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064121626879312167#m

Published: June 8, 2026 23:05

NEW: The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly…

We're hiring! ISW seeks a full-time Operations Coordinator who will report to the Director of Accounting. The role mainly consists of office management and administration as well as tech/IT management. The Operations Coordinator will also provide some support to the Development team. The ideal candidate will have 1-2 years of professional experience, proficiency in Microsoft Office, the ability to multitask, and strong time management skills. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064052340668190828#m

Published: June 8, 2026 18:30

We're hiring! ISW seeks a full-time Operations Coordinator who will report to the Director of Accounting. The role mainly consists of office management and administration as well as tech/IT management. The Operations Coordinator will also provide some…

NEW: The Iranian regime appears to have expanded its threshold for attacking Israel as part of its broader effort to preserve Hezbollah. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters announced the “cessation of armed forces operations” against Israel but threatened that Iranian forces would inflict “much more severe and crushing measures” if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continues to operate against Hezbollah, including in southern Lebanon. Iranian officials and media have previously only threatened to attack Israel if the IDF struck Beirut. The Iranian regime’s inclusion of Israeli activity in southern Lebanon in its threshold for attacking Israel is part of the Iranian effort to try to curb Israeli operations against Hezbollah, particularly by trying to pressure the United States to convince Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters’ announcement followed an exchange of fire between Iran and Israel that began after Hezbollah conducted an attack on northern Israel yesterday. The IDF targeted a first-person view (FPV) drone command headquarters in Beirut after Hezbollah conducted the attack, after which Iranian forces responded by launching missiles at Israel. The IDF subsequently conducted two waves of airstrikes against Iran, the first targeting air defense and missile systems and the second targeting sites affiliated with ballistic missile production at the Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex in Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province. Iran responded by launching additional missiles at Israel. The exchange of fire comes as the Iranian regime appears to be placing renewed emphasis on the importance of the Axis of Resistance, particularly Hezbollah, in Iran’s deterrence strategy after the war. A newspaper affiliated with the Supreme Leader’s office argued that Iran will “not hesitate to enter the field and defend the order that it is now seeking to achieve.” The “new status quo” that Iran seeks to create includes a strong Hezbollah and Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, among other things. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis about Iran’s calculus and objectives in its June 8 update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064038002276417921#m

Published: June 8, 2026 17:33

NEW: The Iranian regime appears to have expanded its threshold for attacking Israel as part of its broader effort to preserve Hezbollah. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters announced the “cessation of armed forces operations” against Israel but…

Reminder: You can easily verify the authenticity of videos purporting to be from ISW by visiting (and subscribing to) our YouTube account linked in the post below. ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2064014647414362459#m

Published: June 8, 2026 16:00

Reminder: You can easily verify the authenticity of videos purporting to be from ISW by visiting (and subscribing to) our YouTube account linked in the post below. ⬇️ The Insider (@InsiderEng) “Zelensky fears coup,” “Russia hasn’t even started yet”:…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW | Benin is working to increase counterinsurgency coordination with its neighbors, including joint operations with Nigeria and diplomatic efforts to repair frayed ties with Alliance of Sahel States members Burkina Faso and Niger. 1/5

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2063976728268046545#m

Published: June 8, 2026 13:29

NEW | Benin is working to increase counterinsurgency coordination with its neighbors, including joint operations with Nigeria and diplomatic efforts to repair frayed ties with Alliance of Sahel States members Burkina Faso and Niger. 1/5

RT by @TheStudyofWar: “Zelensky fears coup,” “Russia hasn’t even started yet”: Kremlin bots launch wave of disinfo after the Ukrainian president’s letter to Putin The new campaign relies on content posing as @WSJ, @USATODAY, @TheStudyofWar and others, as per @antibot4navalny. https://theins.press/en/news/293487

https://nitter.poast.org/InsiderEng/status/2063944358903054549#m

Published: June 8, 2026 11:20

“Zelensky fears coup,” “Russia hasn’t even started yet”: Kremlin bots launch wave of disinfo after the Ukrainian president’s letter to Putin The new campaign relies on content posing as @WSJ, @USATODAY, @TheStudyofWar and others, as per @antibot4navalny. …

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2026: Ukraine’s intermediate-range strikes against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine are continuing to disrupt Russian logistics, and these operational effects will likely continue to mature in the near future. More Key Takeaways The gasoline shortages in occupied Crimea are worsening due to Ukrainian long and intermediate-range strikes. Occupied Crimea is starting to experience shortages of basic goods and supplies beyond gasoline. Ukraine’s successful intermediate and long-range strike campaigns are generating discontent and panic in the Russian milblogger community. A Russian drone struck a nuclear-waste storage facility near the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Kyiv Oblast. Russian forces struck two civilian search and rescue Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea on June 6, possibly with remote-controlled Shahed-type drones that allow Russian forces to conduct precise strikes on dynamic targets. Russian forces launched 236 drones against Ukraine overnight. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2063775088156049762#m

Published: June 8, 2026 00:08

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2026: Ukraine’s intermediate-range strikes against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine are continuing to disrupt Russian logistics, and these operational…

Pinned: Iran Update Special Report, June 7, 2026: A Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel on June 7 is threatening to completely collapse the ceasefire in the Middle East. Israel responded to the Hezbollah attack by conducting an airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Iran responded with a missile attack designed to deter future Israeli attacks against Hezbollah while avoiding escalation into a resumption of full-scale war. Other Key Takeaways Iran will likely seek to use the threat of a resumption of full-scale war to deter additional Israeli attacks. Iran is already attempting to present itself as a reasonable actor in the most recent escalation, even though its ally, Hezbollah, started the escalation on June 7. Iran has continued its efforts to use force to impose its control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy warned other states against disrupting its unrecognized and illegal transit rules, which presumably refers to US efforts to support the movement of commercial vessels through the strait. Bloomberg reported on June 6 that US officials are considering using frozen Iranian funds to help Gulf allies repair damage caused by Iranian aggression, citing a Trump Administration official. The official added that the US Treasury Department “will use all tools available” to obtain estimates of the damage that Iran caused to the United States’ Gulf allies and allow them to use Iranian assets for rebuilding. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2063740536016736755#m

Published: June 7, 2026 21:51

Iran Update Special Report, June 7, 2026: A Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel on June 7 is threatening to completely collapse the ceasefire in the Middle East. Israel responded to the Hezbollah attack by conducting an airstrike in Beirut’s…