RSS Parrot

BETA

🦜 Institute for the Study of War / @TheStudyofWar

@nitter.poast.org.thestudyofwar@rss-parrot.net

I'm an automated parrot! I relay a website's RSS feed to the Fediverse. Every time a new post appears in the feed, I toot about it. Follow me to get all new posts in your Mastodon timeline! Brought to you by the RSS Parrot.

---

Twitter feed for: @TheStudyofWar. Generated by https://nitter.poast.org

Your feed and you don't want it here? Just e-mail the birb.

Site URL: nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar

Feed URL: nitter.poast.org/thestudyofwar/rss

Posts: 80

Followers: 1

Pinned: NEW: Russia is increasingly centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will likely have both positive and negative consequences. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian State Duma adopted a law on April 14 that allows Russian President Vladimir Putin to authorize the use of the Russian Armed Forces overseas to defend “Russian citizens” being prosecuted in international or foreign national courts. The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to increase its production capabilities but is unable to achieve its maximum potential without further investment. Ukraine’s European partners continue to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense capabilities while increasing joint production cooperation. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on April 14. Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian radar systems in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces launched four cruise missiles and 129 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044203231669047658#m

Published: April 14, 2026 23:56

NEW: Russia is increasingly centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will likely have both positive and negative consequences. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian State Duma adopted a law on April 14 that allows Russian…

R to @TheStudyofWar: CORRECTION: The text under More Key Takeaways should read, "The United States began its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on April 13 as part of US efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not impeding freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to or from non-Iranian ports."

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044156723213283762#m

Published: April 14, 2026 20:51

CORRECTION: The text under More Key Takeaways should read, "The United States began its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on April 13 as part of US efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not impeding…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ The military terrain analysis in this study assesses the Fortress Belt’s terrain on four characteristics: population density and urban development (including land use), water features, elevation and slope, and prepared defensive fortifications. https://isw.pub/FortressBelt041426

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044146610788053348#m

Published: April 14, 2026 20:11

2/ The military terrain analysis in this study assesses the Fortress Belt’s terrain on four characteristics: population density and urban development (including land use), water features, elevation and slope, and prepared defensive fortifications. …

Pinned: NEW | The Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: Geospatial Intelligence Terrain Analysis, by @georgewbarros Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️(1/2) Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. The Fortress Belt’s terrain is well-suited for a strong defensive line, whereas the terrain further west of the Fortress Belt – the land that would serve as the new front line if Ukraine lost the Fortress Belt – is poorly suited to serve as a defensive line. The remaining 19 percent of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast is critical for Ukraine’s defense. Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is a concentration of four large cities in Donetsk Oblast and their satellite settlements running north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland) and had a pre-invasion population of over 380,000 people. Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the Fortress Belt and establishing significant defensive infrastructure in and around these cities. The Fortress Belt is essential to ensuring that Ukraine maintains a geographically defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. Understanding the topographical significance of the Fortress Belt is highly relevant for US policy. For the past year, the Trump Administration has been leading negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to find an end to the war. One of the prerequisites for a robust and sustainable peace is ensuring that Ukraine maintains a geographically defensible front line to deny Russia from restarting offensives.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044146607868740077#m

Published: April 14, 2026 20:11

NEW | The Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: Geospatial Intelligence Terrain Analysis, by @georgewbarros Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️(1/2) Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The…

"Late last year Putin signed several decrees allowing for members of Russia’s military reserve to be called up for specific tasks and training, a move analysts from @TheStudyofWar have warned may pave the way for rolling involuntary or covert mobilizations." Read more below from @KatStepanenko interview with @CNN on Russia's recruitment crunch ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044113714698186769#m

Published: April 14, 2026 18:01

"Late last year Putin signed several decrees allowing for members of Russia’s military reserve to be called up for specific tasks and training, a move analysts from @TheStudyofWar have warned may pave the way for rolling involuntary or covert…

Pinned: NEW: The United States and Iran may hold a second round of negotiations this week amid the continued ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran likely aims to protract negotiations as long as possible in order to prepare for a potential resumption of conflict. More Key Takeaways: The United States began its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on March 13 as part of US efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not impeding freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to or from non-Iranian ports. US Central Command said on April 14 that no ships have made it past the US blockade since the blockade began, while six merchant vessels complied with US direction to remain at an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman instead of attempting to traverse the Strait. Western media has reported that some Iranian vessels and vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports traversed the strait, but this does not mean that these vessels bypassed the US blockade. The United States will likely interdict Iranian ships and ships transiting to or from Iranian ports in the Arabian sea, according to US officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal. It is also possible that these vessels transited the strait under the United States’ unspecified “grace period.” The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the United States will meet in Washington, DC, today. Lebanese officials have stated that the purpose of the talks is to discuss an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon and set a date to begin direct Israeli-Lebanese negotiations. Israel has refused to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah, however. Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon and northern Israel continue.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044107307399745919#m

Published: April 14, 2026 17:35

NEW: The United States and Iran may hold a second round of negotiations this week amid the continued ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran likely aims to protract negotiations as long as possible in order to prepare for a potential…

Korean Peninsula Update, April 14, 2026: North Korea invited PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Pyongyang for the first time since 2019 to discuss ways to deepen PRC-North Korea relations. The timing of this meeting and previous statements made by Kim Jong Un may suggest that North Korea wants the PRC to help facilitate future US-North Korea dialogue when Donald Trump meets with Xi Jinping. Other Key Takeaways: North Korea may deploy cluster munition warheads on its ballistic missiles to make them more difficult to intercept. This may indicate that North Korea is learning lessons from Iran’s war with the United States and Israel.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2044099144000651335#m

Published: April 14, 2026 17:03

Korean Peninsula Update, April 14, 2026: North Korea invited PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Pyongyang for the first time since 2019 to discuss ways to deepen PRC-North Korea relations. The timing of this meeting and previous statements made by Kim…

MORE: Orban consistently opposed and undermined the EU’s efforts to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine, aligning with the Kremlin’s interests, and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally endorsed Orban in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. The Kremlin is likely downplaying the loss of its key ally in Europe to project confidence that Ukraine will still face pressure to accept Russia’s terms to end the war.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043852112363188617#m

Published: April 14, 2026 00:41

MORE: Orban consistently opposed and undermined the EU’s efforts to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine, aligning with the Kremlin’s interests, and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally endorsed Orban in the 2026 Hungarian…

Pinned: NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are likely responsible for at least some of the recent drone attacks against Gulf states. It is very unlikely that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct drone attacks against regional states if the Iranian regime opposed such attacks, which suggests that Iran has not ordered its militia partners to cease attacking regional states. Other Key Takeaways: The US negotiating delegation demanded a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, the removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile from Iran, and unfettered freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the negotiations in Pakistan. Iran countered the 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment with a “single-digit” number of years and offered to downblend its HEU instead of handing over its HEU stockpile. It is unclear whether the three US demands and the Iranian counterproposal represent the full scope of each side’s demands. US Central Command (CENTCOM) is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports and vessels while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels transiting to or from non-Iranian ports. CENTCOM implemented its blockade on Iranian ports and vessels at 10:00 AM ET on April 13. Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels continued to use the Iranian-approved transit route to cross the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade went into effect on April 13, but more vessels transited outside this route near the Omani coast than on April 12. At least two oil tankers destined for China via the Iranian-approved transit route turned around after CENTCOM began blockading Iranian and Iranian-approved shipping.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043844143097520454#m

Published: April 14, 2026 00:09

NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are likely responsible for at least some of the recent drone attacks against Gulf states. It is very unlikely that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct drone attacks against regional states if the Iranian regime…

NEW: The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally. Other Key Takeaways: An open-source analysis of Russian contract recruitment reports that Russian recruitment continues to decline as battlefield casualties rise, consistent with other indicators of Russian recruiting and manpower challenges that ISW has observed. Russian and Ukrainian officials issued competing Orthodox Easter ceasefire violation accusations, demonstrating the challenges of implementing a sustainable ceasefire without clearly defined terms, monitoring mechanisms, and dispute resolution mechanisms. Kremlin officials may be continuing to set rhetorical conditions to engage in operations in the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction. Ukrainian forces may have continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched 98 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043819366597230637#m

Published: April 13, 2026 22:31

NEW: The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally. Other Key Takeaways: An open-source analysis of Russian contract recruitment reports that Russian recruitment continues to decline as battlefield…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW| The United States is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for shipping not transiting to or from Iran. The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 10:00 AM ET on April 13. The US blockade focuses exclusively on maritime traffic entering or leaving any Iranian ports, including Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated on April 12 that US forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting through the strait to or from non-Iranian ports. Iranian officials have threatened to respond to the US blockade of Iranian ports. An Iranian military spokesperson stated on April 13 that no port in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman “will be safe” if the security of Iranian ports is “threatened.” Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser Mohsen Rezaei similarly threatened that Iran would counter the blockade. US negotiators, including Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, left Islamabad, Pakistan, after the United States and Iran did not reach an agreement during talks on April 11 and 12. The Iranian negotiating delegation similarly left Islamabad on April 12. A US official and regional source told Axios on April 13 that Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey will continue discussions with Iran and the United States to “bridge the remaining gaps.” These mediators aim to facilitate another round of negotiations between Iran and the United States before the two-week ceasefire ends on April 21.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043727815418286306#m

Published: April 13, 2026 16:27

NEW| The United States is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for shipping not transiting to or from Iran. The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 10:00 AM…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ The US Navy has deployed ships to clear the remaining naval mines and restore freedom of navigation. Some Gulf countries are also supporting mine-clearing efforts, according to Trump. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait on April 11 to set conditions for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy threatened the destroyers but did not attack them. The IRGC Navy has threatened that any military vessels in the Strait will be subject to a “decisive response.”

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043472718599770365#m

Published: April 12, 2026 23:33

2/ The US Navy has deployed ships to clear the remaining naval mines and restore freedom of navigation. Some Gulf countries are also supporting mine-clearing efforts, according to Trump. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait on April 11 to set…

MORE: The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. These Iranian-approved vessels are acceding to Iran’s protection racket and using Iran’s unilaterally imposed traffic separation scheme that forces vessels into Iranian territorial waters. Very few ships are transiting the Strait other than the ships moving through Iran’s territorial waters. Only one ship transited the Strait on April 12 and did not use the Iranian-approved shipping lanes by skirting the southern edge of the Iran-declared hazardous area. US President Donald Trump said on April 12 that the US Navy will “interdict every vessel” that has paid Iran for passage and indicated that enforcement of the blockade will begin soon. Iran has used threats of attacks and a limited number of mines to declare a “hazardous area” across the entire Strait of Hormuz except for Iranian territorial waters, where Iran then imposes fees.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043472715223347309#m

Published: April 12, 2026 23:33

MORE: The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. These Iranian-approved vessels are acceding to Iran’s protection racket and using Iran’s unilaterally imposed traffic separation scheme that forces…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ According to @CENTCOM, "the blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports." https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2043432050921718194?s=20

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043463225543721357#m

Published: April 12, 2026 22:56

3/ According to @CENTCOM, "the blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede…

NEW: The US Navy is attempting to prevent Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels from entering and exiting the Strait, while Iran prevents all other vessels from entering and exiting the Strait. The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. Very few ships are transiting the Strait other than the ships moving through Iran’s territorial waters. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: The United States and Iran did not reach an agreement during talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 and 12. US President Donald Trump emphasized on April 12 that Iran’s delegation did not make compromises on its nuclear program, but that he believed Iran would return to negotiations. Iran sought an all-encompassing agreement that would have transformed US-Iran relations in fundamental ways, while the United States appeared focused on specific issues related to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. The multiple competing Iranian factions with divergent priorities and objectives in negotiations that were part of the Iranian delegation also likely made reaching an agreement exceptionally difficult. Iran has not fired any munitions targeting the Gulf states since ISW-CTP’s last data cut off on April 11. Iranian fired a declining rate of missiles and drones targeting Gulf states since the ceasefire went into effect on April 8.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043450415010750641#m

Published: April 12, 2026 22:05

NEW: The US Navy is attempting to prevent Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels from entering and exiting the Strait, while Iran prevents all other vessels from entering and exiting the Strait. The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are…

Pinned: NEW: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations of the Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday on April 11 and 12. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces committed a war crime in Kharkiv Oblast, reportedly amid the Easter ceasefire on April 11. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction. Russian forces did not conduct any long-range drone or missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 11 to 12.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043440199682662855#m

Published: April 12, 2026 21:24

NEW: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations of the Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday on April 11 and 12. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces committed a war…

MORE: The lack of progress in the negotiations is unsurprising—Iran is seeking an all-encompassing agreement that would transform the US-Iran relationship and end the threat of future conflict. ⬇️ Iran brought over 70 diplomats, parliamentarians, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-adjacent figures, and high-level economic technocrats to the negotiations, which underscores Iran’s wide-ranging negotiating intentions. The United States seeks a much narrower agreement centered on the current war and the nuclear program. US Vice President JD Vance told reporters on April 12 that the United States is seeking reassurances that Iran will not attempt to quickly build a nuclear weapon. The US and Iranian negotiators did not reach an agreement on an Iranian counterproposal to US demands that Iran give up its highly-enriched uranium stockpile, according to Iranian officials.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043389183482355817#m

Published: April 12, 2026 18:02

MORE: The lack of progress in the negotiations is unsurprising—Iran is seeking an all-encompassing agreement that would transform the US-Iran relationship and end the threat of future conflict. ⬇️ Iran brought over 70 diplomats, parliamentarians, Islamic…

NEW: US President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy will prevent all vessels from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 after US negotiators left Islamabad without a US-Iran deal. Iran reportedly refused to concede its “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, which is Iran’s primary source of leverage, and would only open the Strait after a final peace agreement was made. Trump said that the US Navy will begin destroying the mines that Iran laid in the Strait. Iran is using the threat of its naval mines, of which there are reportedly fewer than a dozen, to keep the price of oil and shipping insurance as high as possible for as long as possible without conducting attacks that would cause the ceasefire to collapse. Trump also said that the United States will interdict every vessel that has paid tolls to Iran. Iran has been using the threat of attacks and naval mines to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which allows Iran to shakedown these ships for fees as part of a protection racket. The lack of progress in the negotiations is unsurprising—Iran is seeking an all-encompassing agreement that would transform the US-Iran relationship and end the threat of future conflict. Iran brought over 70 diplomats, parliamentarians, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-adjacent figures, and high-level economic technocrats to the negotiations, which underscores Iran’s wide-ranging negotiating intentions. The United States seeks a much narrower agreement centered on the current war and the nuclear program. US Vice President JD Vance told reporters on April 12 that the United States is seeking reassurances that Iran will not attempt to quickly build a nuclear weapon. The US and Iranian negotiators did not reach an agreement on an Iranian counterproposal to US demands that Iran give up its highly-enriched uranium stockpile, according to Iranian officials. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the war with Iran in its April 12 Iran Update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043354958754414917#m

Published: April 12, 2026 15:46

NEW: US President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy will prevent all vessels from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 after US negotiators left Islamabad without a US-Iran deal. Iran reportedly refused to concede its “control” over…

The current ceasefire will provide Iran an opportunity to reorganize its missile force and recover from the temporary disruption wrought to the missile force during constant US and Israeli operations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043192390052163934#m

Published: April 12, 2026 05:00

The current ceasefire will provide Iran an opportunity to reorganize its missile force and recover from the temporary disruption wrought to the missile force during constant US and Israeli operations. Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) …

Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait. Ships seeking to avoid the Iranian-declared hazardous area must transit Iranian territorial waters. Iran then shakes down these merchant ships by extracting “protection fees.” These “protection” fees protect ships from Iranian attacks. This protection racket is illegal under maritime law. No state bordering a strait is permitted to restrict traffic or extract fees under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Unspecified US officials told the New York Times on April 11 that Iran laid its mines—of which there are reportedly fewer than a dozen, according to a previous March 23 report—” haphazardly,” which has prevented Iran from locating or removing them. These mines may or may not be in the 1,394 sq km “hazardous area.” The threat of mines also enables Iran to keep the price of oil and shipping insurance as high as possible for as long as possible without conducting attacks that would cause the ceasefire to collapse. Iran may calculate that the high price of oil and shipping insurance would cause the United States to cave on some of Iran’s demands. The United States is attempting to undermine Iran’s ability to use the threat of mines in the “hazardous area” by using US Navy destroyers to prove that the normal traffic separation scheme is safe and viable for traffic. Iran can only use the threat of mines to keep these costs high if the fear of mines persists. US President Donald Trump said on April 11 that the United States is “starting the process of clearing out” the strait. Arleigh Burke-Class destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited the Strait to clear the Strait of naval mines. US CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said that the US Navy will share the route of safe passage with civilian shipping as soon as possible. Such a move would undermine Iran’s threats and badly damage its leverage in negotiations. The Qatari Transport Ministry announced later on April 11 that it will resume operations ”for all types of maritime vessels and ships” between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM local time on April 12.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043186199427256762#m

Published: April 12, 2026 04:35

Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian…

NEW: Iran and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the ongoing negotiations, which will generate friction. Iran seeks an all-encompassing agreement that will end the threat of war with the United States, while the United States seeks a much narrower agreement centered on the current war. The US delegation, led by US Vice President JD Vance and including US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, appears to be pursuing a narrow, issue-specific negotiation focused on de-escalatory mechanisms around the Strait of Hormuz, and reportedly secondary matters like detainees. Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. This protection racket is illegal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait. The current ceasefire will provide Iran an opportunity to reorganize its missile force and recover from the temporary disruption wrought to the missile force during constant US and Israeli operations. Consistent US and Israeli operations over Iran had suppressed Iran’s missile force by preventing Iran from digging out launchers, disrupting command-and-control, and creating pervasive fear in military units that made them unwilling or unable to conduct attacks, as ISW-CTP has previously assessed. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei continues to recover from severe facial and leg injuries that he sustained in the February 28 strike on the supreme leader’s compound in Tehran Province. Three unspecified individuals close to Mojtaba’s inner circle told Reuters on April 11 that the strike disfigured Mojtaba’s face and injured one or both of his legs. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping Iran to reconstitute some of its degraded air defense capabilities during the current ceasefire. The PRC is preparing to deliver man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran within the coming weeks, according to three sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043141795861635243#m

Published: April 12, 2026 01:38

NEW: Iran and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the ongoing negotiations, which will generate friction. Iran seeks an all-encompassing agreement that will end the threat of war with the United States, while the United States…

NEW: The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11, and both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations in the first hours of the ceasefire. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has reportedly taken control of seven of eight Russian pre-trial detention centers (SIZOs) as part of the Kremlin’s broader effort to strengthen the internal security apparatus. Available independent reporting indicates that Russia’s systematic use of short-range first-person view (FPV) drones against civilians in Ukraine is likely partially responsible for the increase in civilian casualties in the war in Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia conducted civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchanges on April 11. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in the Hulyaipole and Novopavlivka directions. Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure in Russia. Russian forces launched 160 long-range strike drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043122150454812840#m

Published: April 12, 2026 00:20

NEW: The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11, and both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations in the first hours of the…

For over a month, ISW’s Middle East team has sustained around‑the‑clock coverage as the Iran war continues to evolve rapidly. ISW continues to operate on a daily crisis schedule to deliver the trusted, timely updates that policymakers, newsrooms, and the public rely on to understand what is happening and what comes next. We are grateful for those who have helped sustain this coverage so far. Continued support is critical to ensure ISW can keep providing the reliable analysis this moment demands. Support ISW today: https://isw.pub/ISWMiddleEastCrisisX

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043086694757335449#m

Published: April 11, 2026 22:00

For over a month, ISW’s Middle East team has sustained around‑the‑clock coverage as the Iran war continues to evolve rapidly. ISW continues to operate on a daily crisis schedule to deliver the trusted, timely updates that policymakers, newsrooms, and the…

NEW: US Navy vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a freedom of navigation operation. The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry claimed that the Iranian delegation threatened the United States via a Pakistani mediator that Iran would attack the US vessels if the US ships continued to pass the strait. A US official denied that the United States received such a threat. US officials have denied Iranian claims that the United States has agreed to release frozen Iranian financial assets in Qatar and South Korea. Iranian officials said that unfreezing the assets was a prerequisite to talks. CTP-ISW will provide further analysis on the ceasefire in its April 11 Iran Update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2043026164151730556#m

Published: April 11, 2026 17:59

NEW: US Navy vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a freedom of navigation operation. The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry claimed that the Iranian delegation threatened the United States via a Pakistani mediator that Iran would attack the US vessels if…

NEW: The Kremlin unilaterally declared a short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday. Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces are prioritizing offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction over defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction but are not making significant advances west of Hulyaipole despite this prioritization. Russian forces are reportedly pulling from their strategic reserves to reinforce their efforts in Ukraine, but do not appear to be using these reserves to reinforce their identified priority effort in Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin continues to intensify the throttling of Telegram. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kupyansk, Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole directions. Russian forces launched 128 long-range strike drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042771254566850936#m

Published: April 11, 2026 01:06

NEW: The Kremlin unilaterally declared a short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday. Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces are prioritizing offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction over defending against Ukrainian…

Iran Update Special Report, April 10, 2026: The Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad on April 10 ahead of planned negotiations on April 11. US Vice President JD Vance departed for Pakistan on April 10, operating under strict guidance from President Donald Trump. Other Key Takeaways: It will remain difficult to determine whether the Middle East ceasefire conditions are being upheld, given the lack of mutually agreed-upon, written ceasefire documents available to the public. US President Trump warned on Truth Social on April 10 that Iran is engaging in “short‑term extortion” in the Strait of Hormuz and said that its leadership is negotiating only because it has “no cards.” Neither the US nor Iran has signaled any public shift on their stances on key issues in previous negotiations, which include nuclear enrichment limits, the highly enriched uranium stockpile, the missile program, sanctions, and access to frozen assets. The US-Iran ceasefire talks are complicated by the fragmented nature of the Iranian negotiating team, composed of competing political, military, and security factions, rather than a unified delegation with a clear mandate and unified positions. The Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense spokesperson stated on April 10 that Kuwaiti armed forces detected and engaged seven Iranian drones in Kuwaiti airspace over the past 24 hours. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias probably used first-person view (FPV) drones to ambush US Embassy personnel near the Baghdad International Airport on April 8. ] Hezbollah claimed that it conducted 49 attacks targeting Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and 43 attacks targeting IDF infrastructure and Israeli communities in northern and southern Israel between 2:00 PM ET on April 9 and 2:00 PM ET on April 10 Iranian banks are in poor condition and are warned that current challenges risk pushing banks toward crisis or bankruptcy. The Institute for Science and International Security reported on April 9 that Iran likely aims to restrict access to the tunnel complex and delay or complicate any ground operation to reach or seize the highly enriched uranium

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042756411529019644#m

Published: April 11, 2026 00:07

Iran Update Special Report, April 10, 2026: The Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad on April 10 ahead of planned negotiations on April 11. US Vice President JD Vance departed for Pakistan on April 10, operating under strict guidance from President…

"Iran got exactly what it wanted out of the cease-fire agreement announced Tuesday night. Now it’s up to President Trump to make sure the regime’s short-term win doesn’t become a lasting strategic victory." @gen_jackkeane via @NYPostOpinion: https://nypost.com/2026/04/09/opinion/iran-will-try-to-push-a-bad-deal-but-trump-wont-let-it-happen/

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042709204188959202#m

Published: April 10, 2026 21:00

"Iran got exactly what it wanted out of the cease-fire agreement announced Tuesday night. Now it’s up to President Trump to make sure the regime’s short-term win doesn’t become a lasting strategic victory." @gen_jackkeane via @NYPostOpinion:…

"The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces have gained a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield, helping stall Russian advances and support recent Ukrainian counterattacks. According to the institute's Thursday report, Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian air defense systems, combined with its drone interception rates, have contributed to recent battlefield success for Ukraine." https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/04/10/ukraine-Russia-Easter-truce/3141775807917/

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042701653418062212#m

Published: April 10, 2026 20:30

"The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces have gained a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield, helping stall Russian advances and support recent Ukrainian counterattacks. According to the institute's Thursday report,…

NEW: The PRC provided Iran with material support amid Iran’s conflict with the United States. PRC support is likely aiding Iran’s missile program reconstruction and improving Iran’s targeting abilities. Other Key Takeaways: KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping on April 10, the first such meeting in over a decade. Cheng and Xi reiterated their desire to continue cross-strait exchanges that adhere to the 1992 Consensus and oppose “Taiwan Independence.” The KMT requested a delay to the LY’s review of the three competing special defense budget proposals until mid-April. Taiwanese officials speculated that this delay could be due to Cheng Li-wun’s visit to the PRC.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042688361563918543#m

Published: April 10, 2026 19:37

NEW: The PRC provided Iran with material support amid Iran’s conflict with the United States. PRC support is likely aiding Iran’s missile program reconstruction and improving Iran’s targeting abilities. Other Key Takeaways: KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ This article is the first in a multi-part series assessing the campaign’s success and shortcomings that ISW and @criticalthreats will publish in the coming days and weeks. Read more here: https://isw.pub/USAirWarfareDoctrineX

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042665539080683796#m

Published: April 10, 2026 18:06

2/ This article is the first in a multi-part series assessing the campaign’s success and shortcomings that ISW and @criticalthreats will publish in the coming days and weeks. Read more here: isw.pub/USAirWarfareDoctrine…

NEW | Special Report: Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign Against Iran, Part I by @criticalthreats' @brian_cartr and @NicholasACarl ⬇️(1/2) The US-Israeli combined air campaign against Iran should be evaluated based on whether it achieved its political objectives, which is the core purpose of any military operation. The campaign to this point has degraded the Iranian ability to project force and thus satisfied a key military objective. The United States and Israel have destroyed a significant portion of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval capabilities, as well as the industrial base that enables Iran to produce more. The current ceasefire will not secure US interests by default, however, because the United States and its partners have yet to achieve the necessary conditions for a positive political outcome. Iranian leaders continue to threaten international shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and have expressed their intent to continue restricting access to the strait. Any future agreement between the United States and Iran that does not secure the strait would severely undermine what the campaign has achieved so far. Though the war is not over until a permanent ceasefire is reached, the current pause in fighting provides an opportunity to evaluate what the campaign has achieved to this point.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042665536371195944#m

Published: April 10, 2026 18:06

NEW | Special Report: Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign Against Iran, Part I by @criticalthreats' @brian_cartr and @NicholasACarl ⬇️(1/2) The US-Israeli combined air campaign against Iran should be evaluated based on…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: NEW | Morning Iran Update: It will remain difficult to determine whether the Middle East ceasefire conditions are being upheld, given the lack of agreed-upon, written ceasefire documents available to the public. ⬇️ Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, while Israel continues to conduct airstrikes against Hezbollah. Every side is claiming compliance with the ceasefire while accusing the other of escalation, and it is impossible to determine which complaints are valid without a written, mutually-agreed-upon ceasefire document. Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on April 9. Kuwaiti Armed Forces also announced that Iran conducted a drone attack that targeted several vital National Guard facilities, wounding personnel and causing significant material damage, on April 9. The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations are further complicated by the fact that the US delegation is negotiating with a committee of different Iranian factions that have divergent views on the negotiations. Some of these members are not even in positions that match the roles that they are supposedly playing. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is leading the Iranian delegation set for negotiations in Islamabad – a responsibility more attuned for the Iranian president. Ghalibaf does not have control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and is reportedly feuding with IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi, who appears to have major influence in Iranian diplomatic decisions.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042650124292096315#m

Published: April 10, 2026 17:05

NEW | Morning Iran Update: It will remain difficult to determine whether the Middle East ceasefire conditions are being upheld, given the lack of agreed-upon, written ceasefire documents available to the public. ⬇️ Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli…

A new ISW report by @nataliabugayova and @KatStepanenko examines how the Kremlin has evolved its efforts to expand its media conglomerate.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042621189634289835#m

Published: April 10, 2026 15:10

A new ISW report by @nataliabugayova and @KatStepanenko examines how the Kremlin has evolved its efforts to expand its media conglomerate. Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) NEW | Special Report: The Kremlin’s Expanding Media…

NEW | Special Report: The Kremlin’s Expanding Media Conglomerate (1/2) The Kremlin has been cultivating a network of foreign media outlets, content creators, and journalists by forming partnerships, conducting outreach, and fostering media education across the globe. Russian news agencies and broadcasters have been engaging in a deliberate effort to sign cooperation agreements with foreign media outlets. Russia has prioritized the People's Republic of China, Iran, and India in its media outreach since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin will likely intensify its efforts to expand the media conglomerate over the coming years, especially as the United States is reducing its global media outreach.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042618748553629819#m

Published: April 10, 2026 15:00

NEW | Special Report: The Kremlin’s Expanding Media Conglomerate (1/2) The Kremlin has been cultivating a network of foreign media outlets, content creators, and journalists by forming partnerships, conducting outreach, and fostering media education…

The Kremlin is deploying Russian military vessels to escort Russian sanctions-evading tankers through the English Channel. Russian forces continue to conduct covert submarine operations near British undersea fiber-optic cables and pipelines in the North Atlantic Ocean.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042603509116518581#m

Published: April 10, 2026 14:00

The Kremlin is deploying Russian military vessels to escort Russian sanctions-evading tankers through the English Channel. Russian forces continue to conduct covert submarine operations near British undersea fiber-optic cables and pipelines in the North…

Ukraine has markedly increased its mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower since late 2025 and particularly in early 2026, which has impeded Russian advances across the theater and is likely also interfering with the Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive. ISW has observed geolocated evidence that Ukrainian forces conducted 41 mid-range strikes in January 2026, 61 in February 2026, and 115 in March 2026. These Ukrainian strikes have largely targeted Russian forces and assets in eastern and southern Ukraine, including near occupied Donetsk City, degrading Russian preparations for offensive operations in recent weeks and months. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 9 that Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces perform over 11,000 combat missions per day and struck over 150,000 verified targets in March 2026 alone — up 50 percent from February 2026. Russian pro-war information space voices have also acknowledged that Ukraine is generating success with its battlefield air interdiction (BAI) efforts by using drones and other technological adaptations. Russian officials have repeatedly attempted to advance a false narrative that Ukraine’s frontline and political stability are on the verge of collapse in an effort to convince the West to capitulate to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure militarily. Recent evidence suggests that not only are Russian forces facing setbacks on the battlefield, but also that recent Ukrainian drone innovations have shifted the battlefield advantage in Ukraine’s favor.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042588417759023405#m

Published: April 10, 2026 13:00

Ukraine has markedly increased its mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower since late 2025 and particularly in early 2026, which has impeded Russian advances across the theater and is likely also interfering…

MORE: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven Iranian drones since April 8. The Kuwaiti Armed Forces announced on April 9 that an unspecified number of drones entered Kuwaiti airspace and that one of these drones targeted a Kuwaiti National Guard site.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042437414702972946#m

Published: April 10, 2026 03:00

MORE: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Unverified reporting suggests that the Kremlin privately acknowledges Ukraine’s upper hand in drone operations on the battlefield and defense industrial base (DIB) production.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042432720677011735#m

Published: April 10, 2026 02:41

2/ Unverified reporting suggests that the Kremlin privately acknowledges Ukraine’s upper hand in drone operations on the battlefield and defense industrial base (DIB) production.

MORE: Ukrainian forces’ increasing strikes against Russian air defense systems and drone interception rates have facilitated recent Ukrainian battlefield successes. ⬇️ Ukrainian forces in Winter 2025-2026 and Spring 2026 have made their most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 and have liberated the most territory in Ukraine itself since the 2023 counteroffensive. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported on April 9 that USF forces have destroyed nine Russian air defense systems in occupied Ukraine since April 1. Ukrainian USF forces have increasingly intercepted Russian drones since late February and March 2026, intercepting a total of 2,975 in January, 3,679 in February, and 7,674 in March 2026. Interceptor drones have important tactical battlefield implications as Russian forces rely on drones to disrupt Ukrainian defenses, which, in turn, enables Russian advances and prevents Ukrainian advances. Ukraine’s increasing interceptions of Russian drones are therefore contributing to slowing Russian advances and permitting Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukraine’s defensive successes, drone adaptations, and mid-range strike campaign are creating compounding effects that are degrading Russian frontline forces.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042429862015877506#m

Published: April 10, 2026 02:30

MORE: Ukrainian forces’ increasing strikes against Russian air defense systems and drone interception rates have facilitated recent Ukrainian battlefield successes. ⬇️ Ukrainian forces in Winter 2025-2026 and Spring 2026 have made their most significant…

MORE: Iranian officials continue to insist that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire framework. Israeli officials have stated that Israel will not observe a ceasefire in Lebanon and will continue to strike Hezbollah, however. Hezbollah has resumed attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed Israeli officials on April 8 to conduct direct negotiations with the Lebanese government “as soon as possible to discuss Hezbollah disarmament.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042421802928882022#m

Published: April 10, 2026 01:57

MORE: Iranian officials continue to insist that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire framework. Israeli officials have stated that Israel will not observe a ceasefire in Lebanon and will continue to strike Hezbollah, however. Hezbollah has resumed attacks on…

1/ NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield. Ukraine’s drone advantage is likely contributing to the stalling of Russian advances and recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces’ increasing strikes against Russian air defense systems and drone interception rates have facilitated recent Ukrainian battlefield successes. Unverified reporting suggests that the Kremlin privately acknowledges Ukraine’s upper hand in drone operations on the battlefield and defense industrial base (DIB) production. The Kremlin is deploying Russian military vessels to escort Russian sanctions-evading tankers through the English Channel. Russian forces continue to conduct covert submarine operations near British undersea fiber-optic cables and pipelines in the North Atlantic Ocean. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian-controlled bridge in occupied Kherson Oblast, possibly for the first time in combat history. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction. Russian forces launched 119 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042399346172342464#m

Published: April 10, 2026 00:28

1/ NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield. Ukraine’s drone advantage is likely contributing to the stalling of Russian…

1/ NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield. Ukraine’s drone advantage is likely contributing to the stalling of Russian advances and recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces’ increasing strikes against Russian air defense systems and drone interception rates have facilitated recent Ukrainian battlefield successes. Unverified reporting suggests that the Kremlin privately acknowledges Ukraine’s upper hand in drone operations on the battlefield and defense industrial base (DIB) production. The Kremlin is deploying Russian military vessels to escort Russian sanctions-evading tankers through the English Channel. Russian forces continue to conduct covert submarine operations near British undersea fiber-optic cables and pipelines in the North Atlantic Ocean. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian-controlled bridge in occupied Kherson Oblast, possibly for the first time in combat history. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction. Russian forces launched 119 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042398585233223996#m

Published: April 10, 2026 00:25

1/ NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield. Ukraine’s drone advantage is likely contributing to the stalling of Russian…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ The US Government stated on April 8 that Iran submitted a “new” and “modified” proposal to the United States that will serve as the basis for the US-Iran talks. US President Donald Trump stated on April 7 that this proposal is a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” Iranian media previously published a version of its 10-point proposal, which included long-standing and maximalist Iranian demands. The proposal called for guarantees against future strikes on Iran, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment, and the lifting of all US primary and secondary sanctions. It also demanded the termination of United Nations and International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions against Iran, the withdrawal of US forces from the region, war reparations, and a ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon. Unspecified mediators told the Wall Street Journal on April 8 that Iran has softened several of its demands, including its demands related to nuclear enrichment, the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East, and war reparations. The Wall Street Journal also highlighted disagreements over the scope of the ceasefire, noting that the United States does not consider Lebanon part of the agreement despite Iran including it in its proposal. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on April 9 that Israeli strikes on Lebanon render negotiations “meaningless.” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf separately insisted that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire framework.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042387579723530508#m

Published: April 9, 2026 23:41

3/ The US Government stated on April 8 that Iran submitted a “new” and “modified” proposal to the United States that will serve as the basis for the US-Iran talks. US President Donald Trump stated on April 7 that this proposal is a “workable basis on which…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven Iranian drones since April 8. The Kuwaiti Armed Forces announced on April 9 that an unspecified number of drones entered Kuwaiti airspace and that one of these drones targeted a Kuwaiti National Guard site.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042387577387237421#m

Published: April 9, 2026 23:41

2/ Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven…

MORE ⬇️🧵(1/3): Iran is taking several steps to exert control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with the net effect of keeping oil prices high. Iran likely aims to use high oil prices to exert economic pressure on the United States and extract concessions from the United States during negotiations. An unnamed senior Iranian source told Russian state media on April 9 that Iran will not allow more than 15 vessels per day to transit through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. The Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization published a graphic on April 8 instructing ships to follow designated entry and exit routes in coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy to transit the strait. These routes move international maritime traffic into Iranian-controlled waters. The graphic warns that ships risk hitting mines outside of these routes. Unspecified US officials previously told Western media on March 23 that there are at least a dozen Iranian mines in the strait. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei released a statement on April 9 in which he said that Iran will “take the management” of the Strait of Hormuz to a “new phase.” This statement is consistent with other Iranian officials’ statements in recent weeks that Iran intends to use the Strait as a point of leverage even after the war ends. Commercial maritime tracking data showed that three cargo ships and one oil tanker entered the strait, while six cargo ships and four oil tankers exited the strait between 2:00 PM ET on April 8 and 2:00 PM ET on April 9.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042387573889462302#m

Published: April 9, 2026 23:41

MORE ⬇️🧵(1/3): Iran is taking several steps to exert control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with the net effect of keeping oil prices high. Iran likely aims to use high oil prices to exert economic pressure on the United States and…

NEW: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. Other Key Takeaways: The US Government stated on April 8 that Iran submitted a “new” and “modified” proposal to the United States that will serve as the basis for the US-Iran talks. US President Donald Trump stated on April 7 that this proposal is a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” Unspecified mediators told the Wall Street Journal on April 8 that Iran has softened several of its demands, including its demands related to nuclear enrichment, the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East, and war reparations. Iran is taking several steps to try to exert control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which have the net effect of keeping oil prices high. Iran likely aims to use high oil prices to exert economic pressure on the United States and extract concessions from the United States during negotiations. Iranian officials continue to insist that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire framework. Israeli officials have stated that Israel will not observe a ceasefire in Lebanon and will continue to strike Hezbollah, however. Hezbollah has resumed attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed Israeli officials on April 8 to conduct direct negotiations with the Lebanese government “as soon as possible to discuss Hezbollah disarmament.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042364443116327347#m

Published: April 9, 2026 22:10

NEW: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. Other Key Takeaways: The US Government stated on April 8 that Iran submitted…

Pinned: NEW: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP's last data cutoff on April 8. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven Iranian drones since April 8, however. Iran continues to regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened to “destroy” vessels that attempt to transit the strait without Iranian approval, required ships to coordinate with the Iranian armed forces, and levied fees on some vessels. Traffic through the strait remains low amid Iran's threats and restrictions. Senior US and Israeli officials continue to indicate that Israeli operations in Lebanon fall outside the scope of the ceasefire. The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes since April 8, targeting Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure. US Vice President JD Vance reportedly told Israeli media that Israel has expressed openness to limiting its campaign against Hezbollah “a little.” Iranian officials are threatening to withdraw from the ceasefire and resume fighting if Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire, likely to try to coerce the United States to pressure Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah. An Iranian Foreign Ministry official told Western media that US President Donald Trump must choose between a ceasefire and allowing continued Israeli operations in Lebanon. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to resume attacks if Israel continues its operations in Lebanon. Hezbollah has resumed attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. These attacks come after a Hezbollah official stated on April 8 that the group would halt attacks against Israel under the ceasefire. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the ceasefire in its April 9 Iran Update.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042290015649022107#m

Published: April 9, 2026 17:14

NEW: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP's last data cutoff on April 8. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven Iranian drones since April 8, however. Iran continues to regulate…

NEW: Russia continues to publish the profiles of deported Ukrainian children on Russian adoption databases. (1/2) Additional Key Takeaways: The Chechen Republic may be facilitating the deportation of Ukrainian children under the guise of medical necessity. Russian federal security agencies and youth military-patriotic organizations held a tactical training camp to prepare Ukrainian youth for service in the Russian military and security apparatus. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to seize, nationalize, and redistribute residential and commercial properties in occupied Ukraine. Russian authorities are escalating systematic persecutions against women in occupied Crimea. Russia’s majority state-owned banks continue to consolidate their ownership of banking services and means of everyday exchange in occupied Ukraine. Russian officials continue to pursue housing projects en masse in occupied Ukraine, likely in part to support efforts to increase the population of occupied areas with resettled Russian citizens from Russia.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042268263648739537#m

Published: April 9, 2026 15:47

NEW: Russia continues to publish the profiles of deported Ukrainian children on Russian adoption databases. (1/2) Additional Key Takeaways: The Chechen Republic may be facilitating the deportation of Ukrainian children under the guise of medical…

MORE: Senior US and Israeli officials stated on April 7 and 8 that the Israeli campaign in Lebanon is not a part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Hezbollah officials claimed that unspecified actors informed the group that it would be a party to the ceasefire deal. The IDF conducted the largest number of airstrikes against Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure throughout Lebanon, including central Beirut, since the start of the Israeli campaign in Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed that it conducted 13 attacks against Israeli targets in northern and central Israel and 20 attacks targeting IDF forces in southern Lebanon before the US-Iran ceasefire went into effect.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042082573506183233#m

Published: April 9, 2026 03:30

MORE: Senior US and Israeli officials stated on April 7 and 8 that the Israeli campaign in Lebanon is not a part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Hezbollah officials claimed that unspecified actors informed the group that it would be a party to the…

MORE: Ukrainian technological adaptations and drone innovations continue to grant Ukraine tactical and operational leverage as Russian forces suffer from high casualties. ⬇️ Ukraine’s defensive successes, drone adaptations, and mid-range strike campaign are evidently creating compounding effects that are degrading both Russian frontline forces and Russia’s long-range strike campaign. Recent Ukrainian advances in southern Ukraine since late January 2026 have also created cascading operational effects on the frontline that have forced Russian forces to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and resources to other sectors of the frontline. Ukraine’s recent successes are accomplishing tactical, operational, and strategic battlespace effects that undermine the Russian narrative that the Ukrainian frontlines are on the verge of collapse.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042075032210567204#m

Published: April 9, 2026 03:00

MORE: Ukrainian technological adaptations and drone innovations continue to grant Ukraine tactical and operational leverage as Russian forces suffer from high casualties. ⬇️ Ukraine’s defensive successes, drone adaptations, and mid-range strike campaign…

MORE: Iran has continued to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz despite the ceasefire, which is making vessels reticent to transit the strait. Iran is levying these threats so that it can extract tolls on traffic through an international waterway. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly low amid Iran’s lingering threats and uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire. Commercial maritime tracking data showed only five Iranian‑flagged cargo vessels entered the strait, while just three international oil tankers, six international cargo vessels, and one unknown Iranian-flagged vessel exited via Iran’s alternative route between April 7 at 2:00 PM ET and April 8 at 2:00 PM ET. The S&P Global Market Intelligence recorded that Iran permitted only four vessels to transit on April 7, the lowest daily total so far in April. Major shipping companies, including Maersk and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, continue to suspend or tightly limit transits, citing the absence of clear rules and security guarantees. Shipping and maritime intelligence executives told the Financial Times that daily traffic has fallen to just 10 to 15 vessels, compared with roughly 135 per day before the crisis. Around 800 tankers are now waiting to transit, with an estimated 300 to 400 vessels effectively stranded inside the Persian Gulf.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042060487152538090#m

Published: April 9, 2026 02:02

MORE: Iran has continued to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz despite the ceasefire, which is making vessels reticent to transit the strait. Iran is levying these threats so that it can extract tolls on traffic through an international waterway. …

Pinned: Iran Update Evening Special Report, April 8, 2026: US President Donald Trump announced on April 7 that the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire deal mediated by Pakistan. Trump stated that Iran sent a ten-point proposal to form the basis of upcoming negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 10. Other Key Takeaways: Senior US and Israeli officials stated on April 7 and 8 that the Israeli campaign in Lebanon is not a part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Hezbollah officials claimed that unspecified actors informed the group that it would be a party to the ceasefire deal. US President Donald Trump told PBS News on April 8 that Lebanon is not included in the US-Iran ceasefire deal. The IDF conducted the largest number of airstrikes against Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure throughout Lebanon, including central Beirut, since the start of the Israeli campaign in Lebanon. The IDF struck over 100 Hezbollah headquarters, command-and-control centers, missile launch sites, and Hezbollah drone unit and Radwan Force sites in Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley. Iran has continued to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz despite the ceasefire, which is making vessels reticent to transit the strait. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly low amid Iran’s lingering threats and uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire.· Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi had to convince Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders to accept the US proposal for a ceasefire, according to a regional source familiar with the talks speaking to Axios. The ceasefire follows reports that a group of veteran hardline IRGC commanders has consolidated power within the Iranian regime in recent weeks and is playing an increasingly central role in decision-making, such as appointments to key positions.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042052119604211928#m

Published: April 9, 2026 01:28

Iran Update Evening Special Report, April 8, 2026: US President Donald Trump announced on April 7 that the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire deal mediated by Pakistan. Trump stated that Iran sent a ten-point proposal to form the basis…

NEW: Russia maintains expansive territorial goals in Ukraine beyond demands for Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast. Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian technological adaptations and drone innovations continue to grant Ukraine tactical and operational leverage as Russian forces suffer from high casualties. The Kremlin continues to engage in a coordinated information effort designed to elevate nuclear escalation rhetoric, likely in an attempt to drive a wedge between the United States and the European Union. The Kremlin may be leveraging its “Time of Heroes” program to replace the Belgorod Oblast governor with a veteran of the war in Ukraine as part of a wider effort to staff government positions with a cadre of loyal veterans. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces launched 176 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2042039646545207524#m

Published: April 9, 2026 00:39

NEW: Russia maintains expansive territorial goals in Ukraine beyond demands for Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast. Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian technological adaptations and drone innovations continue to grant Ukraine tactical and operational…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Apply today! Click the link here to get your application started: https://understandingwar.bamboohr.com/careers/226

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2041965016107102486#m

Published: April 8, 2026 19:42

2/ Apply today! Click the link here to get your application started: understandingwar.bamboohr.co…

ISW is hiring! We seek a talented and self-motivated full-time China Program Researcher to support the Alternative Strategies for the Coalition Defense of Taiwan (CDOT) project, a joint effort of ISW with the American Enterprise Institute. (1/2) The ideal candidate must be passionate about conducting detail-oriented research and working on a collaborative team to produce timely research on current events. They will also have expertise in Chinese foreign policy, national security, central decision-making, and/or military policy issues.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2041964993504034920#m

Published: April 8, 2026 19:42

ISW is hiring! We seek a talented and self-motivated full-time China Program Researcher to support the Alternative Strategies for the Coalition Defense of Taiwan (CDOT) project, a joint effort of ISW with the American Enterprise Institute. (1/2) The…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: .@HelsinkiComm Briefing on Ukraine's Defense Amid War With Russia – LIVE on C-SPAN2 https://www.c-span.org/event/public-affairs-event/helsinki-commission-holds-briefing-on-ukraines-defense-amid-war-with-russia/441951

https://nitter.poast.org/cspan/status/2041941506135581077#m

Published: April 8, 2026 18:09

.@HelsinkiComm Briefing on Ukraine's Defense Amid War With Russia – LIVE on C-SPAN2 c-span.org/event/public-affa…

Pinned: NEW: The ceasefire with Iran remains incredibly fragile today, though ceasefire implementation is always challenging and will take time. Large-scale attacks from both sides stopped after the ceasefire went into effect, but reports of ceasefire violations have continued. Iran has now begun threatening to break the ceasefire after major Israeli attacks against Lebanese Hezbollah. The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel was not part of the ceasefire, according to US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The Pakistani prime minister accused unspecified parties of ceasefire violations and called for adherence to the ceasefire, while the UAE said Iran had launched 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones targeting the UAE after the ceasefire. Ceasefire implementation takes time, however, especially given the degraded state of Iranian command and control. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine provided an operational update on April 8 in which he highlighted that the combined force had destroyed 80 percent of Iranian air defenses, 800 one-way attack drone storage facilities, 450 ballistic missile facilities, and more than 150 ships. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the war with Iran in its April 8 Iran Update this evening.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2041938216291389543#m

Published: April 8, 2026 17:56

NEW: The ceasefire with Iran remains incredibly fragile today, though ceasefire implementation is always challenging and will take time. Large-scale attacks from both sides stopped after the ceasefire went into effect, but reports of ceasefire violations…

MORE: President Trump described Iran’s 10-point counterproposal that it sent to the US on April 5 as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” ⬇️ Iran’s demands included a permanent end to the war with guarantees that the United States or Israel will not attack Iran again. Iran also demanded the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran, the termination of all UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors resolutions against Iran, the payment of reparations to Iran, the withdrawal of US forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran also reportedly stated that it will charge vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz a fee of up to $2 million US dollars, the revenue from which it will split with Oman and use for post-war reconstruction. Iran’s proposal to charge vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz highlights Iran’s attempt to use the strait as a point of leverage and for its financial gain.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2041697636835577990#m

Published: April 8, 2026 02:00

MORE: President Trump described Iran’s 10-point counterproposal that it sent to the US on April 5 as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” ⬇️ Iran’s demands included a permanent end to the war with guarantees that the United States or Israel will not…

Pinned: NEW: The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 and will begin negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council announced that the regime agreed to the ceasefire on April 7, several hours after US President Donald Trump announced that he had agreed to the ceasefire on the condition that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire and stated that Iran will allow the “safe passage” of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week period “via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Other Key Takeaways: Israel has reportedly agreed to cease operations against Iran and Hezbollah if Iran halts its operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X on April 7 that Iran and the United States’ allies, presumably referring to Iran’s Axis of Resistance and Israel, respectively, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire “everywhere, including [in] Lebanon and elsewhere.” Combined force strikes on Iranian railways and roads may have cut off several Iranian lines of transportation to move weapons, including missiles and missile launchers or components, across Iran. The IDF struck eight rail bridges and road segments that the Iranian regime uses to move weapons and other military equipment. Russia may be helping Iran conduct attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by providing Iran with satellite imagery of the strait. Reuters reported on April 7 that Russian satellites are “actively surveying” the Strait of Hormuz, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Russia has provided Iran with satellite imagery of US, Gulf, and Turkish military assets in the Middle East to help Iran conduct attacks since the war began. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi are reportedly driving decisions related to Iran’s kinetic response to the US and Israeli air campaign, according to two sources close to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s office speaking to anti-regime media on April 7.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2041694912144454108#m

Published: April 8, 2026 01:49

NEW: The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 and will begin negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council announced that the regime agreed to the ceasefire…

NEW: Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to set conditions for possible future aggression against the Baltic states. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s willingness to conduct a ceasefire over the Easter holiday and/or a ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes. The Kremlin is reportedly considering replacing three Russian governors ahead of the September 2026 elections. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast and a defense industrial plant in Voronezh Oblast. Russian forces launched 110 drones against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2041663975436198401#m

Published: April 7, 2026 23:46

NEW: Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to set conditions for possible future…