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MORE: Taiwanese Military Development: Taiwan’s military conducted its first live-fire FPV drone exercises on August 17, likely in an effort to integrate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. Taiwanese drone procurement efforts are facing legislative gridlock, which will make it more difficult for Taiwan to procure the necessary systems to conduct drone-enabled defense operations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091986403823673610#m

Published: August 24, 2026 20:30

MORE: Taiwanese Military Development: Taiwan’s military conducted its first live-fire FPV drone exercises on August 17, likely in an effort to integrate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. Taiwanese drone procurement efforts are facing legislative…

MORE: Ukrainian forces are conducting an intermediate-range strike campaign in occupied Ukraine, including occupied Crimea, and Russia, in a concerted effort to degrade Russia’s strike and air defense capabilities. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported on August 23 that Ukrainian forces struck Russian Su-33 and MiG-29 fighter jets, an Orion-type strike and reconnaissance drone, a surface-to-air missile (SAM) unit, and integrated air-defense system (IADS) assets in Krasnodar Krai, Russia; air-defense sensors and SAM systems in Rostov Oblast, Russia; and air-surveillance radars in occupied Crimea. Ukraine has intensified its intermediate- and long-range strikes through a sustained suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses campaign (SEAD / DEAD) in order to degrade Russia’s ability to reliably defend its rear areas in occupied Ukraine and southern Russia against Ukrainian strikes.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091963756985115004#m

Published: August 24, 2026 19:00

MORE: Ukrainian forces are conducting an intermediate-range strike campaign in occupied Ukraine, including occupied Crimea, and Russia, in a concerted effort to degrade Russia’s strike and air defense capabilities. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF)…

MORE: Putin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to seize the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, likely in part because of his misunderstanding of the battlefield realities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 23 that Putin most recently ordered the Russian military to complete the seizure of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026 and noted that Putin’s main operational objectives in Ukraine remain the seizure of Kostyantynivka, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk cities in Donetsk Oblast — all part of Ukraine’s heavily fortified Fortress Belt defense line. Zelensky stated that Russian forces have suffered around 267,000 personnel casualties, including about 155,000 killed, along the entire frontline since the beginning of 2026 and that roughly 70 to 80 percent of all Russian losses occur in the Kostyantynivka direction. Zelensky added that the Kremlin is preparing to mobilize around 300,000 servicemembers following the September 18-20 State Duma elections in part to reinforce Russian positions in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Putin has given Russian forces 15 separate deadlines since 2022 to seize the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces have failed to meet any of them.[10] Russian forces control roughly 21,170 square kilometers (or roughly 79.89 percent) of Donetsk Oblast and roughly 26,624 square kilometers (or roughly 99.77 percent) of Luhansk Oblast, according to the evidence that ISW has observed. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin’s deadlines for its military objectives remain divorced from the reality of Russian forces’ battlefield performance and that Russian forces are highly unlikely to seize Donbas by the end of 2026, if at all.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091907130966364269#m

Published: August 24, 2026 15:15

MORE: Putin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to seize the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, likely in part because of his misunderstanding of the battlefield realities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 23…

Pinned: ICYMI: ISW and @criticalthreats assessed on Friday that IRGC commander Vahidi’s hardline faction remains in a stronger position to argue that continued pressure on the United States, rather than Iranian concessions, can secure the regime’s objectives. Iranian regime decision-making may therefore take a long time to react to economic deterioration, even as the Iranian economy worsens. Read the full assessment via the link below ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091888257277542593#m

Published: August 24, 2026 14:00

ICYMI: ISW and @criticalthreats assessed on Friday that IRGC commander Vahidi’s hardline faction remains in a stronger position to argue that continued pressure on the United States, rather than Iranian concessions, can secure the regime’s objectives.…

MORE: Russian forces are likely prioritizing attacks on the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and from Rai-Oleksandrivka toward Mykolaivka in an attempt to seize local tactical heights and create more favorable conditions for an offensive against Slovyansk that bypasses difficult terrain and tough Ukrainian defenses to the northeast. Russian forces are thus conducting a dual tactical effort to connect elements operating near Kryva Luka and Rai-Oleksandrivka to launch an assault against the settlement simultaneously from dominant terrain to the east and south.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091880707215720874#m

Published: August 24, 2026 13:30

MORE: Russian forces are likely prioritizing attacks on the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and from Rai-Oleksandrivka toward Mykolaivka in an attempt to seize local tactical heights and create more favorable conditions for an offensive against…

NEW: Russian forces recently advanced east of Slovyansk as they continue prioritizing efforts to secure favorable positions east and southeast of the city in preparation for frontal assaults towards Slovyansk and the rest of the Fortress Belt. Other Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to seize the entirety of Donetsk Oblast likely in part because of his misunderstanding of the battlefield realities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly presented a joint Ukraine-US-Europe proposal on August 23 to end the war in Ukraine that offers significant Ukrainian concessions even as Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to refuse to compromise on any of their core demands. Ukrainian forces are conducting an intermediate-range strike campaign in occupied Ukraine, including occupied Crimea, and Russia in a concerted effort to degrade Russia’s strike and air defense capabilities. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign targeting Russian logistics, fuel, and electrical infrastructure. Russian forces launched 127 drones against Ukraine overnight.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091687551799062545#m

Published: August 24, 2026 00:42

NEW: Russian forces recently advanced east of Slovyansk as they continue prioritizing efforts to secure favorable positions east and southeast of the city in preparation for frontal assaults towards Slovyansk and the rest of the Fortress Belt. Other Key…

ISW is seeking an Education Program Manager to advance ISW's mission of educating the next generation of national security leaders! The Education Program Manager will be responsible for the planning and execution of ISW's Internship Program, assisting the General H. David Petraeus Center for Emerging Leaders throughout the Hertog War Studies Program, and maintaining ISW's vast alumni network. An ideal candidate possesses 3-5 years of professional experience working in educational programming or in national security, demonstrated experience managing significant projects and programs, and a strong ability to coordinate with ISW's multimedia experts. Interested in working closely with ISW’s staff, students, interns, and alumni? Apply now: https://understandingwar.bamboohr.com/careers/239

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091548519727350086#m

Published: August 23, 2026 15:30

ISW is seeking an Education Program Manager to advance ISW's mission of educating the next generation of national security leaders! The Education Program Manager will be responsible for the planning and execution of ISW's Internship Program, assisting…

PRC South China Sea Construction: The PRC will likely use environmental monitoring as a pretext to enhance and automate maritime domain awareness and enforcement of PRC territorial claims in the South China Sea. The South China Sea Institute of Oceanology (SCSIO), an institute of the PRC state-run Chinese Academy of Science (CAS), announced on August 18 that the PRC approved plans for a marine environmental observation station in the South China Sea that would monitor the “Zhongsha Islands.” The “Zhongsha Islands” is the PRC name for the grouping of the Scarborough Shoal, which the PRC seized from the Philippines in 2012, and the underwater Macclesfield Bank. The SCSIO said that the new station will establish a “three-dimensional marine observation network” covering the entirety of the “Zhongsha Islands” and collaborating with existing monitoring stations in the PRC-occupied Paracel and Spratly Islands. The SCSIO did not disclose the location of the new monitoring station but said it would include a “sea-based dual-core” and “land-based overall support.” The PRC may construct the land-based portion of the monitoring station on the nearby Paracel Islands because constructing directly on Scarborough Shoal — the only above-water feature in the “Zhongsha Islands” — would be unprecedented and potentially provoke a response from the Philippines. Read more in the full update ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091525874235441529#m

Published: August 23, 2026 14:00

PRC South China Sea Construction: The PRC will likely use environmental monitoring as a pretext to enhance and automate maritime domain awareness and enforcement of PRC territorial claims in the South China Sea. The South China Sea Institute of Oceanology…

Pinned: NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin used his August 22 speech at the United Russia Party Congress to further establish United Russia as the war party, thus setting conditions to use the party’s inevitable victory in the upcoming State Duma elections as evidence that the Russian people support a protracted war in Ukraine while further solidifying the party’s pro-war stance as a central part of Russia’s informal state ideology. Other Key Takeaways: Putin framed Russia’s ongoing combined strike campaign against Ukraine as a victory to the Russian public in order to offset Russia’s lack of tactical success on the battlefield and present Russia as having the capability to formulate kinetic responses to Ukrainian actions. Putin acknowledged the effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia’s fuel infrastructure and emphasized the need to improve Russia’s air defense systems. Putin reiterated his continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian port, oil, and dual-use logistics infrastructure. Russian forces launched an unspecified number of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and 271 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Kostyantynivka, northeast of Oleksandrivka, and west of Orikhiv.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091306658882281574#m

Published: August 22, 2026 23:28

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin used his August 22 speech at the United Russia Party Congress to further establish United Russia as the war party, thus setting conditions to use the party’s inevitable victory in the upcoming State Duma elections as…

MORE: A senior Russian official reiterated the Kremlin’s continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. ⬇️ Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on August 21 that Russia will only accept a peace proposal that aligns with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war aims and reflects the “ground realities.” Putin’s maximalist and often-repeated war aims include Ukraine’s complete capitulation, the installation of a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv, and severe limitations on the Ukrainian military and Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations. Russian officials’ continued invocation of “battlefield realities” fails to address Russia’s declining rate of advance and incremental and gradual tactical successes and instead requires that Ukraine concede to Russia’s unwavering demands. Ryabkov’s statement confirms Putin’s commitment to continue the war in Ukraine despite the growing economic and military strain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to peace negotiations and a willingness to make meaningful compromises to end the war, despite Russian efforts to falsely paint Ukraine as the intransigent party in peace efforts.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091216329638375768#m

Published: August 22, 2026 17:30

MORE: A senior Russian official reiterated the Kremlin’s continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. ⬇️ Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on August 21 that Russia will only accept a peace…

ISW is hiring! We’re seeking a full-time Russia Researcher to join our premier analytical team studying Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This role will contribute to ISW’s work providing timely, open-source analysis of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s domestic and foreign policy, with a focus on understanding how Russia’s evolving political and geostrategic dynamics affect U.S. national security interests. The ideal candidate will bring strong analytical skills, professional working proficiency in Russian, and a demonstrated ability to produce exceptional, timely research in a fast-paced environment. Interested in joining ISW’s Russia & Ukraine team? Apply today: https://understandingwar.bamboohr.com/careers/211

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091178593267110076#m

Published: August 22, 2026 15:00

ISW is hiring! We’re seeking a full-time Russia Researcher to join our premier analytical team studying Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This role will contribute to ISW’s work providing timely, open-source analysis of the war in Ukraine and…

MORE: The PRC began the island construction in late 2025. Satellite imagery from @planet also shows piers, a helipad, and various buildings on the reef as of August 2026. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (@CSIS) Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative reported on August 14 that the PRC may now be building a runway on the artificial island that could measure up to 9,000 feet long. PRC state-owned tabloid Global Times published an article on August 20 claiming that recent construction was carried out to improve the quality of life for residents and fishermen, citing a March statement by a PRC foreign ministry spokesperson. Antelope Reef is part of the Paracel Islands, which the PRC administers but Vietnam also claims. The PRC has used other Paracel Islands outposts as surveillance and administrative hubs. Antelope Reef’s large lagoon offers a protective harbor for PRC surface vessels and submarines, and its runway and future infrastructure, such as missile launchers and radar, may make it a useful base for the PRC to exert sea and air control over the South China Sea. PRC efforts to militarize the South China Sea may complicate US and coalition efforts to reinforce and defend Taiwan during a war.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2091178589165441117#m

Published: August 22, 2026 15:00

MORE: The PRC began the island construction in late 2025. Satellite imagery from @planet also shows piers, a helipad, and various buildings on the reef as of August 2026. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (@CSIS) Asia Maritime Transparency…

MORE: Sources told The Financial Times on August 21 that Ukraine is seeking approval to use Starlink-equipped drones to strike Russian ballistic missile launchers up to 200 kilometers inside Russia. Authorization to access Starlink over geographically defined segments of Russia would allow Ukrainian forces to conduct more accurate strikes against Russian mobile ground-based ballistic missile launchers, given Ukraine’s integration of Starlink-equipped drones during the intermediate-strike campaign against Russian logistics in occupied Ukraine. Russian combined drone and missile strike packages have shifted in Summer 2026 to rely on ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles to exploit Ukraine’s Patriot and ballistic missile interceptor shortage. Ukraine’s request for restricted Starlink use demonstrates an alternative approach to countering Russian ground-based ballistic missiles that does not require the actual shipment of missile interceptors from the United States and other Ukrainian partners. Reliable low-latency satellite access over Russia could also allow Ukraine to effectively and accurately target mobile ground-based missile launchers in Russia and offset the wider surface-to-air missile shortage.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090997388538478992#m

Published: August 22, 2026 03:00

MORE: Sources told The Financial Times on August 21 that Ukraine is seeking approval to use Starlink-equipped drones to strike Russian ballistic missile launchers up to 200 kilometers inside Russia. Authorization to access Starlink over geographically…

MORE: The failure of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) appears to have further weakened the pro-concession, “realist” camp relative to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and other anti-concession officials. Vahidi’s faction therefore remains in a stronger position to argue that continued pressure on the United States, rather than Iranian concessions, can secure the regime’s objectives.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090990028474261995#m

Published: August 22, 2026 02:30

MORE: The failure of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) appears to have further weakened the pro-concession, “realist” camp relative to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and other anti-concession…

NEW: North Korea reportedly deployed drone operators to Kursk Oblast to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, which will allow North Korean forces to gain valuable tactical and technological skills critical for contemporary warfare. Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces are adapting their tactics and domestically developing technological solutions to target Russia’s ballistic missile launchers and jet-powered drones in ways that circumvent the need for foreign materiel assistance amidst global air-defense interceptor shortages. A senior Russian official reiterated the Kremlin’s continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces struck Russian military airfields and oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched 135 long-range strike drones against Ukraine. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090983329923260502#m

Published: August 22, 2026 02:04

NEW: North Korea reportedly deployed drone operators to Kursk Oblast to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, which will allow North Korean forces to gain valuable tactical and technological skills critical for contemporary warfare. Other Key Takeaways: …

NEW: There is no indication that economic pressure on the regime has changed the anti-concessions position of some top Iranian officials, even while a group of Iranian officials responsible for managing the economy (“realists”) are increasingly warning that worsening economic pressure could threaten regime stability. These officials also appear to openly advocate ending the war to reduce the economic cost to the regime. Other Key Takeaways: The failure of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) appears to have further weakened the pro-concession, “realist” camp relative to Vahidi and other anti-concession officials. Regime decision-making may therefore take a long time to react, even as the economy gets much worse. Vahidi and other anti-concession officials appear to have a higher tolerance for domestic unrest because they may calculate that the regime can contain and suppress renewed protests without changing course. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is resisting US efforts to economically isolate Iran, but Chinese economic engagement cannot offset the blockade if Iran cannot physically supply its largest oil customer.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090927614605074927#m

Published: August 21, 2026 22:22

NEW: There is no indication that economic pressure on the regime has changed the anti-concessions position of some top Iranian officials, even while a group of Iranian officials responsible for managing the economy (“realists”) are increasingly warning…

NEW: New satellite imagery shows that the PRC finished the construction of an artificial island on Antelope Reef, a disputed South China Sea feature in the Paracel Islands. The PRC is also constructing a runway, piers, a helipad, and various buildings on what could be the PRC’s largest South China Sea naval base. The PRC could use this base for surveillance, exerting its sea and air control over the South China Sea. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: The PRC approved plans for a maritime environmental observation station in the South China Sea that would monitor the “Zhongsha Islands,” which include Scarborough Shoal. The PRC has used environmental protection to enhance its operations in the South China Sea and as a pretext for limiting non-PRC vessels’ access to disputed waters. This new station would likely serve a dual-use purpose benefiting PRC military and law enforcement operations in the South China Sea. Taiwan’s military conducted its first live-fire FPV drone exercises on August 17, likely in an effort to integrate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. Taiwanese drone procurement efforts are facing legislative gridlock, which will make it more difficult for Taiwan to procure the necessary systems to conduct drone-enabled defense operations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090881513545937397#m

Published: August 21, 2026 19:19

NEW: New satellite imagery shows that the PRC finished the construction of an artificial island on Antelope Reef, a disputed South China Sea feature in the Paracel Islands. The PRC is also constructing a runway, piers, a helipad, and various buildings on…

The Kremlin is expanding state-run international journalism training initiatives, building a global media recruitment pipeline, and expanding training that specifically targets young media professionals abroad. Kremlin-run media is increasingly incorporating AI media training curricula, likely to scale production of content that aligns with Kremlin narratives. The Kremlin seeks to expand the scale, reach, and longevity of Russia’s information influence through its growing journalism training initiatives abroad. Read more in ISW's special report ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090846393728409633#m

Published: August 21, 2026 17:00

The Kremlin is expanding state-run international journalism training initiatives, building a global media recruitment pipeline, and expanding training that specifically targets young media professionals abroad. Kremlin-run media is increasingly…

Pinned: NEW: The Alabuga Special Economic Zone, a key drone production facility for the Russian military, has begun recruitment efforts aimed directly at teenagers from occupied Ukraine. Other Key Takeaways: Russian and occupation officials are highlighting Russian efforts to militarize schools in occupied areas in advance of the 2026-2027 school year. The Russian security apparatus is artificially manipulating border laws to create the impression that occupied Ukrainian territories have been fully integrated into Russia. The Luhansk Oblast occupation administration is reckoning with significant medical staffing shortages, including in part by relocating Russian doctors to work in occupied areas. Occupation administrations continue to profit from the seizure and sale of stolen Ukrainian assets.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090802707594420571#m

Published: August 21, 2026 14:06

NEW: The Alabuga Special Economic Zone, a key drone production facility for the Russian military, has begun recruitment efforts aimed directly at teenagers from occupied Ukraine. Other Key Takeaways: Russian and occupation officials are highlighting…

MORE: Russian strikes continue inflicting substantial damage in ways that disproportionately impact civilians, despite a high Ukrainian interception rate of all projectiles except for ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles. Russian forces continue launching prolonged waves of ballistic and cruise missiles and long-range drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems and to exhaust air defenders and civilians. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will continue the pattern of stockpiling cruise and ballistic missiles for periodic large, combined strike packages.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090619902075838536#m

Published: August 21, 2026 02:00

MORE: Russian strikes continue inflicting substantial damage in ways that disproportionately impact civilians, despite a high Ukrainian interception rate of all projectiles except for ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles. Russian forces continue…

NEW: Russian forces launched a massive, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine, continuing a pattern of stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles for several days to amass enough for major attacks that cause significant civilian casualties. Other Key Takeaways: Russia continues to set conditions to augment strike packages with North Korean missiles, including with upgraded KN-30 ballistic missiles. Russian aerial drones penetrated Moldovan and Romanian airspace, and a Russian naval drone was destroyed close to a Romanian natural gas platform on August 20, demonstrating that the Kremlin has accepted the risk that its war against Ukraine will cause damage to other states, including NATO states. The Kremlin will likely cause a significant number of Russian combat veterans of the war in Ukraine to be elected to the Russian State Duma in the September 2026 elections, particularly as members of the United Russia Party, as part of a concerted effort to militarize Russian society and cohere a pro-war and ultranationalist elite. The Russian government continues to respond inadequately to gasoline shortages and appears to be focused on mitigation strategies and ad hoc solutions instead of addressing the issue directly. Neither the Kremlin nor Russian milbloggers appear to believe that Russia will be able to fully intercept Ukrainian strike packages any time soon. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of August 19 to 20. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090597374917824650#m

Published: August 21, 2026 00:30

NEW: Russian forces launched a massive, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine, continuing a pattern of stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles for several days to amass enough for major attacks that cause significant civilian casualties. …

NEW: US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States will intensify its maximum pressure campaign against Iran in the coming days. Bessent announced on August 20 that the United States will announce further economic measures against Iran and entities with commercial ties to Iran on August 24. Other Key Takeaways: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is preparing to implement phased trade and financial restrictions in parallel with upcoming US economic measures. The UAE reportedly plans to phase its reduction of trade and financial engagement with Iran, adopting initial measures to restrict cargo and trade flows. Iranian officials are acknowledging the mounting economic pressures that Iran faces and are pursuing alternative trade, banking, and financial arrangements designed to reduce the impact of these pressures. Iran is seeking to invest in alternative routes and destinations for its oil exports to alleviate this economic pressure.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090578081303941474#m

Published: August 20, 2026 23:13

NEW: US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States will intensify its maximum pressure campaign against Iran in the coming days. Bessent announced on August 20 that the United States will announce further…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: The Sudanese Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) may have enabled a new Central African Republic (CAR) rebel Alliance's assault against he CAR military and allied Russian Wagner Group forces in a town on the Sudanese border, which could complicate the CAR's role in Emirati-RSF supply lines. CTP Africa Analyst @mikedeangelo25 explains why this is important. ⬇️

https://nitter.poast.org/criticalthreats/status/2090503767149936972#m

Published: August 20, 2026 18:18

The Sudanese Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) may have enabled a new Central African Republic (CAR) rebel Alliance's assault against he CAR military and allied Russian Wagner Group forces in a town on the Sudanese border, which could complicate the…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ Kremlin concern about social disorder resulting from fuel shortages has reportedly led to the deployment of paramilitary forces in some areas. Putin is deploying additional Rosgvardia manpower to patrol gas stations likely in order to manage civil unrest and violence occurring at gas stations due to severe fuel shortages and sales restrictions. Putin’s deployment of Rosgvardia personnel also likely suggests that the Kremlin expects the Russian fuel crisis and fuel-related violence to protract. Fuel availability has reportedly declined across several Russian oblasts that are frequent targets of Ukrainian long-range strikes, including Moscow Oblast. Renewed gasoline shortages across Russia, including in Moscow indicate that the Kremlin’s ability to shield Moscow residents is becoming tenuous.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090500270304227804#m

Published: August 20, 2026 18:04

3/ Kremlin concern about social disorder resulting from fuel shortages has reportedly led to the deployment of paramilitary forces in some areas. Putin is deploying additional Rosgvardia manpower to patrol gas stations likely in order to manage civil…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ The Russian government’s attempts to increase the domestic flow of gasoline supplies are increasing stressors on other parts of the Russian petrochemical industry and on industrial production dependent on petroleum products other than gasoline or diesel. Even these measures, however, have not resolved ongoing fuel shortages in Russia.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090500267317907839#m

Published: August 20, 2026 18:04

2/ The Russian government’s attempts to increase the domestic flow of gasoline supplies are increasing stressors on other parts of the Russian petrochemical industry and on industrial production dependent on petroleum products other than gasoline or…

MORE: Renewed gasoline shortages across Russia, including in Moscow, resulting from Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign, indicate that the Kremlin’s ability to shield Moscow residents is becoming tenuous. 🧵(1/3)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090500262494375967#m

Published: August 20, 2026 18:04

MORE: Renewed gasoline shortages across Russia, including in Moscow, resulting from Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign, indicate that the Kremlin’s ability to shield Moscow residents is becoming tenuous. 🧵(1/3) Institute for the Study of War…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ Iran will likely respond to the UAE’s decision with greater military and economic pressure against the UAE rather than abandon its efforts to secure greater control over the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting economic pressure on Iran from the UAE’s decision will nevertheless likely increase regime concerns about domestic unrest, but it is unclear whether those concerns will compel Vahidi’s faction to make meaningful concessions.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090431692850774401#m

Published: August 20, 2026 13:32

3/ Iran will likely respond to the UAE’s decision with greater military and economic pressure against the UAE rather than abandon its efforts to secure greater control over the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting economic pressure on Iran from the UAE’s…

MORE: The UAE announced on August 18 that it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran. The announcement comes after the UAE accused Iran of launching missiles from Iranian territory toward the UAE on August 18. ⬇️🧵(1/3) The UAE has previously supported US efforts to undermine Iranian control of the strait, which suggests that the UAE’s decision is part of a broader effort to raise the costs of Iran’s attempts to control or disrupt maritime traffic. The UAE’s decision may also seek to prevent any Iran-Oman arrangement that grants Iran any control over navigation through the strait.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090431687440130143#m

Published: August 20, 2026 13:32

MORE: The UAE announced on August 18 that it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran. The announcement comes after the UAE accused Iran of launching missiles from Iranian territory toward the UAE on August 18. ⬇️🧵(1/3) The UAE has…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ The UAE’s decision will further weaken Iran’s already deteriorating economy by restricting both its access to essential imports and its ability to repatriate export revenues and circumvent sanctions. Roughly one-third of Iran’s imports have come from the UAE, and the largest proportion of Iranian imports in the last five years have come from the UAE.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090431690057404754#m

Published: August 20, 2026 13:32

2/ The UAE’s decision will further weaken Iran’s already deteriorating economy by restricting both its access to essential imports and its ability to repatriate export revenues and circumvent sanctions. Roughly one-third of Iran’s imports have come from…

MORE: Putin has been able to present a fictional picture of the Russian military’s performance on the battlefield to the Russian public more readily than he can dissemble about the economic situation. The Kremlin has conducted a broad censorship campaign aimed at controlling the narrative of the progress of the full-scale invasion since 2022, making it easier for Putin to present a much more positive vision of the war’s progress than the military situation actually supports. Ukrainian long-range strikes, however, have forced Putin to publicly acknowledge the economic effects that over four years of war have had on Russia as the Russian population and business community see those strikes and their effects themselves in ways that censorship cannot control.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090265062388731919#m

Published: August 20, 2026 02:30

MORE: Putin has been able to present a fictional picture of the Russian military’s performance on the battlefield to the Russian public more readily than he can dissemble about the economic situation. The Kremlin has conducted a broad censorship campaign…

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to present Russia’s poor economic performance in a positive light as he is unable to conceal the damage that over four years of war and Ukrainian long-range strikes have done to the Russian economy. Other Key Takeaways: Gasoline shortages are continuing across Russia, including in areas Putin has sought to shield from negative consequences of the war. The Russian government’s attempts to alleviate gasoline shortages are having compounding effects, including in other key economic sectors. Kremlin concern about social disorders resulting from fuel shortages has reportedly led to the deployment of paramilitary forces in some areas. Russian authorities are restricting mass gatherings in Moscow’s Red Square, likely out of fear of protests and domestic unrest. The Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) confirmed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appointment of Yevheniy Khmara as the Ukrainian Defense Minister on August 19. Russia and Ukraine recently conducted an exchange of prisoners of war (POW). Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian forces struck the Ufa Oil Refining Hub, which includes three separate refineries, in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan (about 1,200 kilometers from the international border) overnight on August 18 to 19. Russian forces launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 65 drones against Ukraine overnight.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090247637349863879#m

Published: August 20, 2026 01:20

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to present Russia’s poor economic performance in a positive light as he is unable to conceal the damage that over four years of war and Ukrainian long-range strikes have done to the Russian economy. …

NEW: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is intensifying economic pressure on Iran to discourage Iranian efforts to control or disrupt navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE announced on August 18 that it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran. The announcement comes after the UAE accused Iran of launching missiles from Iranian territory toward the UAE on August 18. Other Key Takeaways: The UAE has previously supported US efforts to undermine Iranian control of the strait, which suggests that the UAE’s decision is part of a broader effort to raise the costs of Iran’s attempts to control or disrupt maritime traffic. The UAE’s decision will further weaken Iran’s already deteriorating economy by restricting both its access to essential imports and its ability to repatriate export revenues and circumvent sanctions. Roughly one-third of Iran’s imports have come from the UAE, and the largest proportion of Iranian imports in the last five years come from the UAE have made the UAE. Iran will likely respond to the UAE’s decision with greater military and economic pressure against the UAE rather than abandon its efforts to secure greater control over the Strait of Hormuz. ISW-CTP previously also assessed that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major Ahmad Vahidi’s faction — whom ISW-CTP continues to assess is driving regime decision-making — may be willing to accept some economic costs and the risk of renewed war if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives, including Iranian control over the strait. Increasing Emirati alignment with the United States will also drive longer-term hostility between the UAE and Iran. It is not clear the extent to which the Iranian regime decisionmakers have internalized the ramifications of long-term hostility with the UAE, given the economic relationship between the two states. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is under pressure from both the United States and Iranian-backed Iraqi actors over Iraqi militia disarmament but appears to be responding primarily to militia pressure at this time. Zaydi reportedly planned to increase security measures and deploy a special Iraqi Counter Terrorism unit near Jurf al Sakhar, south of Baghdad, to monitor the movement of people and vehicles, and would not lead to a raid or a military incursion into the militia’s key site. Iran has also dispatched senior Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, to Baghdad in recent days to discourage conflict between the Iraqi federal government and the militias. These officials are also discouraging disarmament.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090223376321163749#m

Published: August 19, 2026 23:44

NEW: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is intensifying economic pressure on Iran to discourage Iranian efforts to control or disrupt navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE announced on August 18 that it would halt all trade and financial…

NEW: US President Donald Trump instructed the DoD to reduce US-South Korea combined exercises to avoid sending a “hostile” signal to an “unthreatening” country, referring to North Korea. North Korea remains unlikely to accept Trump’s overtures for dialogue as the United States has not changed its stance towards North Korean denuclearization, however. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: North Korea conducted another missile launch on August 12, following a launch on August 6. North Korea has remained silent on the launches, however, deviating from its normal messaging practices. The trajectory of the August 12 missile and Pyongyang’s silence could indicate that North Korea is testing new missile technologies with a range between its existing SRBM and MRBM systems and is waiting until the missiles perform up to standard to announce their existence. North Korea may be constructing a new refinery capable of producing 300,000 tons of fuel annually in exchange for Russian investment in North Korean infrastructure. North Korea likely seeks to improve its energy independence and gain economic benefits from trade with Russia. North Korean support could help shield Russia’s petrochemical supply chains from future Ukrainian strikes but is unlikely to alleviate Russian fuel shortages in the short term.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090135477319790816#m

Published: August 19, 2026 17:55

NEW: US President Donald Trump instructed the DoD to reduce US-South Korea combined exercises to avoid sending a “hostile” signal to an “unthreatening” country, referring to North Korea. North Korea remains unlikely to accept Trump’s overtures for dialogue…

MORE: The Houthis claimed that they launched drones targeting an oil refinery in Jizan, Saudi Arabia, on August 18. A Houthi military source told Houthi media on August 18 that the Houthis attacked the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan in retaliation for Saudi military overflights in Houthi-controlled parts of Saada and Hajjah governorates, northwestern Yemen. The Houthis have claimed four attacks on the Jizan refinery since the Houthis began targeting Saudi oil infrastructure on July 24. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the attack at the time of writing. ISW-CTP continues to assess that the Houthis are attacking Saudi oil infrastructure primarily to raise Saudi political and economic costs to an untenable level and compel Saudi leaders to terminate military operations against the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthi Council of Ministers reiterated on August 17 the Houthis’ demands that Saudi Arabia cease all military operations in Yemen, lift its blockade on Houthi-controlled ports and airports, pay Houthi officials’ salaries, and pay the Houthis war reparations for Saudi and Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG)-aligned military operations in Yemen. The Houthis seek to force Saudi Arabia to surrender and accept these demands by attacking Saudi oil infrastructure, Saudi vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb Strait and Red Sea, and other Saudi assets.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090083867667665323#m

Published: August 19, 2026 14:30

MORE: The Houthis claimed that they launched drones targeting an oil refinery in Jizan, Saudi Arabia, on August 18. A Houthi military source told Houthi media on August 18 that the Houthis attacked the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan in retaliation for…

MORE: Evidence of Russia’s drone component transfers to Iran is indicative of the active military support that Russia has provided Iran and its drone program in recent months. Iran has reportedly used “Russian-enhanced versions” of Shahed drones and Russian targeting intelligence to attack US forces and assets during the war, according to US intelligence officials. Russia has also directly assisted with Iran’s attacks on US forces and bases during the war by providing Iran with “advanced drone tactics.” The New York Times reported on August 11 that Iran has learned and adopted drone tactics it observed in the Russia-Ukraine War to better evade US air defenses. Regime media highlighted the Times' report on August 18.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090076328838242590#m

Published: August 19, 2026 14:00

MORE: Evidence of Russia’s drone component transfers to Iran is indicative of the active military support that Russia has provided Iran and its drone program in recent months. Iran has reportedly used “Russian-enhanced versions” of Shahed drones and…

MORE: There is considerable evidence that Klepach’s assessment of the Russian economic problems aligns with reality, undermining the validity of Putin’s theory of victory. ⬇️ Putin clearly articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine relying on protracted attritional warfare at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 7, 2024. Putin’s theory of the case assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances indefinitely; prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations; and that Russia can prevail in a war of attrition by outlasting Ukrainian will and that of Ukraine’s external supporters. ISW has previously observed that Russia is increasingly struggling to sustain its method of waging a protracted attritional war, as losses exceed recruitment rates and financial and material costs rise, and that the Kremlin is exaggerating its tactical advances to present the appearance of continuous military gains. ISW has, in fact, assessed that the Russian military is systematically misinforming Putin about the state of the front line in part due to the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian armed forces that milbloggers refer to as “beautiful reports.” Putin is likely more aware of Russia’s economic problems than he is of the military situation but determined to similarly present an appearance of economic stability despite evidence of Russia’s ongoing economic issues. Russian business newspaper Vedomosti reported on August 18 that Russian businesses have transferred 384 billion rubles (about $4.5 million) in “voluntary” contributions to the Russian federal budget in 2026, roughly one-and-a-half times the total amount collected through this mechanism in 2025. Putin personally called on Russia’s top business leaders to make such contributions on March 26, 2026, to ease the burden for the protracted attritional war on the Russian treasury. Klepach stated that the Kremlin may cut expenditures by 600 billion rubles (about $7.1 billion) in 2027 compared to 2026, reflecting the reality of the pressure on the Russian treasury despite this measure and increased revenues from higher crude oil prices. ISW continues to assess that the Russian government has adopted suboptimal economic policies to sustain its war in Ukraine, leading to many of Russia’s current economic issues, including increased and unsustainable war spending, growing inflation, significant labor shortages, and reductions in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, that impose complex challenges on Russia’s monetary and macroeconomic policy — all of which are concerns that Klepach acknowledges.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2090068767325704363#m

Published: August 19, 2026 13:30

MORE: There is considerable evidence that Klepach’s assessment of the Russian economic problems aligns with reality, undermining the validity of Putin’s theory of victory. ⬇️ Putin clearly articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine relying on protracted…

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2026: Russian state-owned bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) fired Chief Economist Andrey Klepach following media reports of a negative economic assessment he offered that contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine. More Key Takeaways: There is considerable evidence that Klepach’s assessment of the Russian economic problems aligns with reality, undermining the validity of Putin’s theory of victory. The Russian population is also reacting to the perception of economic decline in ways that may further damage Russian economic and fiscal policy. The Kremlin continues reiterating its determination to prevent Russia’s deteriorating economic realities from reducing its maximalist war aims by refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations to end the war. Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated on August 18 that Russia deliberately launches some of its drones into Moldovan and NATO airspace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted Acting Defense Minister Yevheniy Khmara’s candidacy as defense minister for Verkhovna Rada’s (Parliament) approval on August 18. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russia on the night of August 17 to 18. Russia launched 147 drones against Ukraine overnight. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089898806229827923#m

Published: August 19, 2026 02:14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2026: Russian state-owned bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) fired Chief Economist Andrey Klepach following media reports of a negative economic assessment he offered that contradicts Russian President Vladimir…

MORE: Iran likely attacked two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to consolidate its control over the waterway. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on August 18 that an unspecified actor fired an unspecified projectile that struck a vessel that was transiting the strait through Omani territorial waters. UKMTO separately reported on August 17 that an unspecified actor struck the Liberian-flagged Minoan Dignity with an unspecified projectile on August 15 as the vessel transited the strait through Omani waters. The attack killed one crew member. Iran has repeatedly struck vessels using Omani waters in order to coerce vessels and shipping companies to transit the strait through Iranian territorial waters. It is unclear at this time whether the Iranian attacks on commercial vessels are related to the Emirati Defense Ministry’s announcement about Iranian ballistic missile launches.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089887574332711204#m

Published: August 19, 2026 01:30

MORE: Iran likely attacked two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to consolidate its control over the waterway. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on August 18 that an unspecified actor fired an unspecified…

Pinned: Iran Update Special Report, August 18, 2026: Russia has continued to provide direct military support to Iran through weapons and weapons components transfers. NBC News reported on August 18 that Russia has transferred drone components, ammunition, and TNT explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea as of July 2026, citing a European government document that NBC obtained and that an unspecified Western official verified. More Key Takeaways: Russia’s drone component transfers to Iran are indicative of the active military support that Russia has provided Iran and its drone program in recent months. Iran has reportedly used “Russian-enhanced versions” of Shahed drones and Russian targeting intelligence to attack US forces and assets during the war, according to US intelligence officials. The Emirati Defense Ministry stated that Iran launched two ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on August 18. The Emirati Defense Ministry added that its air defenses detected one ballistic missile that fell outside Emirati territorial waters and another that landed within them. Iranian regime media denied responsibility for the attack. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s recently released list of preconditions for discussing militia disarmament with the Iraqi federal government indicates that Islamic Resistance in Iraq militias have no intention of disarming. Members of the Iraqi Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee reportedly failed to reach a consensus on Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaydi’s request for the committee to draft a law to restrict weapons to the state. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089866460780711973#m

Published: August 19, 2026 00:06

Iran Update Special Report, August 18, 2026: Russia has continued to provide direct military support to Iran through weapons and weapons components transfers. NBC News reported on August 18 that Russia has transferred drone components, ammunition, and TNT…

NEW: Taiwan passed its 2026 general budget on August 14 after almost a year-long delay and less than a week before Taiwan’s 2027 budget is set to be revealed. The budget approved the full $2 billion drone budget, marking a rare instance of partisan agreement on defense spending. This drone budget is separate from a previously announced special budget for drone procurement, which is still under debate. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on August 14 that the Philippines would not allow any country to launch attacks from Philippine territory during an invasion of Taiwan. Marcos also stated that the Philippines was hoping to reset its relations with the PRC and begin joint oil and gas exploration. The Philippines is likely attempting to placate the PRC to gain greater energy cooperation and trade with the PRC during a period of significant energy disruption. Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te stated on August 12 that the PRC was attempting to interfere with the Kaohsiung mayoral election using fake news and fake polling data. The PRC will likely use Taiwan’s 2026 elections to prepare for larger influence campaigns during Taiwan’s 2028 national elections and to gauge the effectiveness of PRC information operations.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089763733983674563#m

Published: August 18, 2026 17:17

NEW: Taiwan passed its 2026 general budget on August 14 after almost a year-long delay and less than a week before Taiwan’s 2027 budget is set to be revealed. The budget approved the full $2 billion drone budget, marking a rare instance of partisan…

MORE | Arabian Peninsula: The Houthis are framing their attack on a Yemeni civilian vessel near the Bab al Mandeb Strait as a strike on Saudi-coalition naval vessels, likely to try to deter the Saudi-led multinational maritime defense coalition from operationalizing its mission to protect Red Sea maritime trade by signaling that the Houthis could target the coalition’s vessels. The Houthis claimed that they struck five Saudi-coalition naval vessels with ballistic missiles in the Red Sea near Mocha Port, Taiz Governorate, on August 17. The Houthis added that they sank one Saudi-coalition landing craft and four nearby patrol boats. Multiple Yemeni sources reported on August 17 that the Houthi strikes only targeted the AMIR KHAN, a Yemeni-owned civilian vessel docked in Al Ardi Port, near the Bab el Mandeb Strait, however. The strike reportedly caused severe damage to the vessel and the harbor’s berth but did not cause casualties. The Houthi claim follows Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 formation of a multinational maritime defense coalition tasked with protecting Red Sea shipping from Houthi and Iranian threats to the Bab al Mandeb Strait. The Houthis’ attempt to frame their recent attack on a Yemeni civilian vessel as an attack on the coalition’s vessels likely served as an implicit threat and intended to signal the group’s willingness to target Saudi-coalition naval vessels to deter the coalition from operationalizing its mission. ISW-CTP previously assessed that the Houthis likely view the coalition as a threat to their blockade of Saudi ports and vessels and the broader Houthi campaign to coerce Saudi Arabia into lifting its blockade of Houthi-controlled ports and airports.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089736582198653406#m

Published: August 18, 2026 15:30

MORE | Arabian Peninsula: The Houthis are framing their attack on a Yemeni civilian vessel near the Bab al Mandeb Strait as a strike on Saudi-coalition naval vessels, likely to try to deter the Saudi-led multinational maritime defense coalition from…

MORE: Russia’s intensified missile strike campaign against Ukraine reportedly contributed to record-high monthly civilian casualties in July 2026. The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UN HRMMU) reported on August 12 that conflict-related violence in Ukraine killed at least 437 civilians, including 17 children, and injured at least 2,610, including 166 children, in July 2026 — the highest number of civilian casualties in Ukraine since May 2022 and the highest number of child casualties since April 2022. The UN HRMMU noted that the July 2026 civilian casualty rate is around a 30 percent increase from the previous record of at least 293 killed and 1,990 injured in June 2026 and that the vast majority of civilian casualties are in Ukrainian-controlled areas. The UN HRMMU reported that missile and long-range drone strikes, particularly strikes against large population centers in Ukraine, remain the leading cause of the high number of civilian casualties, accounting for 183 civilian deaths and 967 civilian injuries, about 38 percent of the total civilian casualties in June 2026. The UN HRMMU reported that Russia’s short-range drone strikes caused the highest number of civilian casualties near the front thus far in the war in July 2026. Russian forces have recently intensified missile strikes against Ukraine and have launched at least 376 missiles in July 2026, the highest number of missiles launched in a month since Russia began large-scale missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089729037119692969#m

Published: August 18, 2026 15:00

MORE: Russia’s intensified missile strike campaign against Ukraine reportedly contributed to record-high monthly civilian casualties in July 2026. The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UN HRMMU) reported on August 12 that…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ Vahidi’s faction may be willing to accept some economic costs and potential unrest if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives. Some Iranian officials and media have expressed concerns in recent weeks about Iran’s worsening economic conditions and the potential for domestic unrest. It is unclear whether the risk of internal unrest would be sufficient to drive Vahidi to make concessions to receive economic relief, however. Vahidi may prefer to take other actions, such as securitizing society and seeking alternative export routes, to mitigate the risks of domestic unrest and economic collapse.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089722345439006816#m

Published: August 18, 2026 14:33

3/ Vahidi’s faction may be willing to accept some economic costs and potential unrest if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives. Some Iranian officials and media have expressed concerns in recent weeks about Iran’s worsening economic…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Vahidi and his inner circle would likely accept a deal with the United States if the United States surrendered to the regime’s demands. ⬇️ Vahidi previously presumably approved the US-Iran MoU in April 2026, given his outsized role in decision-making in recent months and reports that Iranian negotiators did not have the independent authority to approve the MoU. Iranian leaders have interpreted the MoU differently from the United States, particularly its fifth clause regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The regime has interpreted the clause to mean that Iran would maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, which diverges from the US interpretation. Iran has since attacked ships that have attempted to bypass Iranian control in the strait to enforce its interpretation of the MoU. These actions suggest that Vahidi and his faction would likely accept a deal that meets their demands but are unlikely to accept one that falls short, even if failing to reach an agreement would risk renewed conflict.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089722343048335871#m

Published: August 18, 2026 14:33

2/ Vahidi and his inner circle would likely accept a deal with the United States if the United States surrendered to the regime’s demands. ⬇️ Vahidi previously presumably approved the US-Iran MoU in April 2026, given his outsized role in decision-making…

The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal of hostilities. 🧵⬇️(1/3) ISW-CTP has repeatedly assessed that the Houthis’ attacks on Saudi Arabia as well as its blockade on Saudi ports advance Iranian efforts to impose economic costs on the United States and its regional partners to erode their willingness to continue the war and force them to give in to Iranian demands. Arab intelligence officials similarly told WSJ on August 17 that Iran’s hardline leadership, which ISW-CTP has assessed since March 2026 is dominated by IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, is preparing the Iranian armed forces to “widen the war” and “raise costs” for the United States and its allies. This report is consistent with a New York Times (NYT) report on August 1 that senior IRGC Quds Force officers held calls with Hezbollah, Houthi, and Iraqi militia commanders during the ceasefire to coordinate efforts to expand the conflict with the United States.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089722340594663622#m

Published: August 18, 2026 14:33

The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal of hostilities. 🧵⬇️(1/3) ISW-CTP has repeatedly assessed that the Houthis’ attacks on Saudi Arabia as well as its blockade on…

MORE: The Iranian regime is signaling that it could expand the scope and severity of its attacks against the United States and its allies if they do not acquiesce to Iran’s maximalist demands, which include lifting the US naval blockade and US sanctions, securing recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and stopping regional cooperation on policies the regime deems hostile to its interests, among others.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089559158718890029#m

Published: August 18, 2026 03:45

MORE: The Iranian regime is signaling that it could expand the scope and severity of its attacks against the United States and its allies if they do not acquiesce to Iran’s maximalist demands, which include lifting the US naval blockade and US sanctions,…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 2/ Increasingly frequent Russian drone incursions into European and NATO airspace demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy that accepts the risk of Russian drones entering European and NATO airspace as an acceptable consequence of its strikes against the westernmost parts of Ukraine.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089549088425427299#m

Published: August 18, 2026 03:04

2/ Increasingly frequent Russian drone incursions into European and NATO airspace demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy that accepts the risk of Russian drones entering European and NATO airspace as an acceptable…

R to @TheStudyofWar: 3/ ISW continues to assess that these drone incursions are part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign that aims to set informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO, including through Russian false flag provocations, drone incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare interference, and overflights. ISW continues to assess that NATO may need to consider negotiating possible air defense agreements with Ukraine as a matter of self-defense against Russian drone strikes against NATO countries, regardless of whether the Russian drone incursions are accidental or intentional.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089549089914355934#m

Published: August 18, 2026 03:04

3/ ISW continues to assess that these drone incursions are part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign that aims to set informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO, including through Russian false flag provocations,…

MORE: Russia is likely building these additional launch sites in western Russia to increase its capacity to launch larger long-range drone salvos as part of Russia's regular strike packages across Ukraine. Russia also likely seeks to specifically use jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones to strike deeper into western Ukraine by leveraging the drones’ greater speed and survivability to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. Russia is also likely moving its drone-launching sites into western Russia in an attempt to protect Russian drone infrastructure from Ukrainian drones. Russia also may be preparing to use its Rassvet satellite constellation (the Russian version of Starlink) by leveraging new launch sites, which could allow Russian forces to conduct higher-precision strikes against Ukraine's rear and air defense systems from multiple directions. New Russian drone launch bases could also support future Russian strike packages against NATO, should the Kremlin decide to do so, as the bases would enable larger salvo volume, and the launching stations would support drone ranges into NATO territory.

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089548547754524748#m

Published: August 18, 2026 03:02

MORE: Russia is likely building these additional launch sites in western Russia to increase its capacity to launch larger long-range drone salvos as part of Russia's regular strike packages across Ukraine. Russia also likely seeks to specifically use…

Iran Update Special Report, August 17, 2026: The Iranian regime is signaling that it would prefer to continue or even escalate fighting with the United States and its regional partners rather than make any serious concessions regarding its maximalist demands if the regime cannot force them to accede to Iran’s demands. Recent Iranian threats are likely intended to coerce the United States to surrender to Iranian demands as well as to restore deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and its regional partners by signaling the regime’s willingness to expand the scope of its attacks and conduct preemptive attacks. More Key Takeaways: The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal in hostilities. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) “used the calm created by the [memorandum of understanding (MOU)]” to coordinate attack plans with its partners and proxies in the region. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle would likely accept a deal with the United States if the United States surrendered to the regime’s demands. Vahidi’s actions suggest that Vahidi and his faction are unlikely to accept a deal that falls short, even if failing to reach an agreement would risk renewed conflict. Vahidi’s faction may be willing to accept some economic costs and potential unrest if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives. Some Iranian officials and media have expressed concerns in recent weeks about Iran’s worsening economic conditions and the potential for domestic unrest. It is unclear whether the risk of internal unrest would be sufficient to drive Vahidi to make concessions to receive economic relief, however. Vahidi may prefer to take other actions, such as securitizing society and seeking alternative export routes, to mitigate the risks of domestic unrest and economic collapse. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089517545971646781#m

Published: August 18, 2026 00:59

Iran Update Special Report, August 17, 2026: The Iranian regime is signaling that it would prefer to continue or even escalate fighting with the United States and its regional partners rather than make any serious concessions regarding its maximalist…

Pinned: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2026: Russia is expanding launch sites for its long-range strike drones along the border with Ukraine and Belarus, likely to intensify its strikes against Ukraine and possibly NATO. More Key Takeaways: A likely Russian strike vehicle — reportedly a Russian Banderol cruise missile / loitering munition — crashed in a corn field in Moldova on August 17, further demonstrating how the Kremlin has accepted the risk of Russian strike vehicles hitting countries bordering Ukraine during Russian strikes against western Ukraine. Russia’s intensified missile strike campaign against Ukraine reportedly contributed to record high monthly civilian casualties in July 2026. Ukrainian sources provided an updated battle damage assessment (BDA) of a recent Ukrainian strike against Rostov Oblast. Russia launched 128 drones against Ukraine overnight. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on August 17. (1/2)

https://nitter.poast.org/TheStudyofWar/status/2089500534927483075#m

Published: August 17, 2026 23:52

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2026: Russia is expanding launch sites for its long-range strike drones along the border with Ukraine and Belarus, likely to intensify its strikes against Ukraine and possibly NATO. More Key Takeaways: A…

RT by @TheStudyofWar: The Alabuga Polytech Education Center, located at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (ASEZ), has announced student recruitment for youth from occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Alabuga Polytech has become notorious for funneling teens, including vulnerable foreign minors, to drone production lines at the ASEZ. The Russian defense industrial base is scaling up efforts to integrate deported Ukrainian youth into its drone production processes. These drones are used near nightly in devastating strikes on Ukraine's major cities.

https://nitter.poast.org/karolina_hird/status/2089383265153003829#m

Published: August 17, 2026 16:06

The Alabuga Polytech Education Center, located at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (ASEZ), has announced student recruitment for youth from occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Alabuga Polytech has become notorious for funneling teens, including…