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Twitter feed for: @DevolvedVotes. Generated by https://nitter.poast.org
Site URL: nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes
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Posts: 40
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You can try to game out a path to a Reform coalition here: http://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/ This is from the latest @survation poll
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049445676304519253#m
Published: April 29, 2026 11:08
You can try to game out a path to a Reform coalition here: devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦ This is from the latest @survation poll David Deans (@DeansOfCardiff) At the end of last night's BBC debate the contours of a potential alliance that could keepβ¦
Our latest Edinburgh seat projections in today's @heraldscotland You can get see the odds in every Scottish constituency seat here: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-projects
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049430185582170397#m
Published: April 29, 2026 10:06
Our latest Edinburgh seat projections in today's @heraldscotland You can get see the odds in every Scottish constituency seat here: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotβ¦ Josh Pizzuto-Pomaco (@joshpizpom) Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging toβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: Here it is seat-by-seat. Reform are 6th a lot and Plaid are 7th a lot. It wouldn't take much to flip a lot of those.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049406760234988002#m
Published: April 29, 2026 08:33
Here it is seat-by-seat. Reform are 6th a lot and Plaid are 7th a lot. It wouldn't take much to flip a lot of those.
R to @DevolvedVotes: In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%. Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close. https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049406756531339737#m
Published: April 29, 2026 08:33
In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%. Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close. devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: The only functional majority that can emerge from these numbers is a broad left-wing grouping of Plaid Cyrmu, Labour and the Greens. This could be a formal coalition or case by case.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049406752681087132#m
Published: April 29, 2026 08:33
The only functional majority that can emerge from these numbers is a broad left-wing grouping of Plaid Cyrmu, Labour and the Greens. This could be a formal coalition or case by case.
R to @DevolvedVotes: This is a very good poll for Reform and a particularly poor one for the Lib Dems. For everyone else its pretty close to their recent polling average.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049406748889387177#m
Published: April 29, 2026 08:33
This is a very good poll for Reform and a particularly poor one for the Lib Dems. For everyone else its pretty close to their recent polling average.
Our projection for next week's Senedd election based on the @survation @aberuni @NewyddionS4C poll. β‘οΈ Ref β 38 πΌ PC β 31 πΉ Lab β 13 π± GP β 8 π³ Con β 4 π€ LD β 2 Make your own: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2049406744506347990#m
Published: April 29, 2026 08:33
Our projection for next week's Senedd election based on the @survation @aberuni @NewyddionS4C poll. β‘οΈ Ref β 38 πΌ PC β 31 πΉ Lab β 13 π± GP β 8 π³ Con β 4 π€ LD β 2 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds: SNP 58-62 Reform 18-22 Lab 16-18 Green 10-13, Con 10-12 LD 9-11
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048739966327410753#m
Published: April 27, 2026 12:24
Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds: SNP 58-62 Reform 18-22 Lab 16-18 Green 10-13, Con 10-12 LD 9-11
R to @DevolvedVotes: Quite a few of these are very tight. Edinburgh Central, Argyll & Bute, East Lothain Coast, Aberdeenshire West, Galloway & West Dumfries, Dumfriesshire and Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill are all effectively tied. They could each go different ways or they could correlate.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048739963030622690#m
Published: April 27, 2026 12:24
Quite a few of these are very tight. Edinburgh Central, Argyll & Bute, East Lothain Coast, Aberdeenshire West, Galloway & West Dumfries, Dumfriesshire and Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill are all effectively tied. They could each go different ways or theyβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: The SNP are still well ahead across most of Scotland, but Reform, the Conservatives, Greens and Labour are favoured to win 2 constituencies each. The Lib Dems lead in 6.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048739959620657453#m
Published: April 27, 2026 12:24
The SNP are still well ahead across most of Scotland, but Reform, the Conservatives, Greens and Labour are favoured to win 2 constituencies each. The Lib Dems lead in 6.
A projection for May's Holyrood election based on the latest @Survation / @diffleypartners poll: ποΈ SNP β 60 β‘οΈ Ref β 20 πΉ Lab β 17 π± GP β 12 π³ Con β 10 π€ LD β 10 Try your own numbers at: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048739956147867706#m
Published: April 27, 2026 12:24
A projection for May's Holyrood election based on the latest @Survation / @diffleypartners poll: ποΈ SNP β 60 β‘οΈ Ref β 20 πΉ Lab β 17 π± GP β 12 π³ Con β 10 π€ LD β 10 Try your own numbers at: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotβ¦
MRPs are much more expensive than traditional polls. Instead of useful polls the media spent their polling budget telling us that the SNP will come first (YouGov), second (MoreInCommon) or Third (JLP) in Strathkelvin & Bearsden.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048343442267238573#m
Published: April 26, 2026 10:08
MRPs are much more expensive than traditional polls. Instead of useful polls the media spent their polling budget telling us that the SNP will come first (YouGov), second (MoreInCommon) or Third (JLP) in Strathkelvin & Bearsden. Conor Matchettβ¦
Just put an X next to the party you like most. For how the seats are given out click here: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/elections/#closed-list-pr
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048338770940789193#m
Published: April 26, 2026 09:49
Just put an X next to the party you like most. For how the seats are given out click here: devolvedelections.co.uk/elecβ¦ Lloyd Warburtonπ΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ ΏπΊπ¦ (@LloydCymru) This is bad. Very bad. ββ¦
RT by @DevolvedVotes: π΄σ §σ ’σ ³σ £σ ΄σ Ώπ΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώπππ³οΈopinion polls for Scotland and Wales plus model projections from @ElectionMapsUK, @LeftieStats, @DevolvedVotes & @Nowcast_EU!
https://nitter.poast.org/MapsHand2483/status/2048073965327778185#m
Published: April 25, 2026 16:17
π΄σ §σ ’σ ³σ £σ ΄σ Ώπ΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώπππ³οΈopinion polls for Scotland and Wales plus model projections from @ElectionMapsUK, @LeftieStats, @DevolvedVotes & @Nowcast_EU!
The two most radically different polls are the two MRPs - and in opposite directions. Can any of the 'MRPs are superior' people explain this to me?
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2048052991140278717#m
Published: April 25, 2026 14:54
The two most radically different polls are the two MRPs - and in opposite directions. Can any of the 'MRPs are superior' people explain this to me? Josh Housden (@JoshHousden) π΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώ | Estimates based on each pollster's most recent poll Ranges: π²β¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: On 'Other' - If other hit 4% nationally then one of them *could* grab a seat. Split between several parties and spread across Wales they would lose everywhere, but if 1 smaller party does very well in 1 seat they'd win. Its impossible to know based on this poll.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047696774475763891#m
Published: April 24, 2026 15:18
On 'Other' - If other hit 4% nationally then one of them *could* grab a seat. Split between several parties and spread across Wales they would lose everywhere, but if 1 smaller party does very well in 1 seat they'd win. Its impossible to know based onβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: Here it is at a seat level, most Conservative seats are on the edge and so are 4 of Labour's 6! The few Lib Dems are more entrenched in our model.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047696771606798536#m
Published: April 24, 2026 15:18
Here it is at a seat level, most Conservative seats are on the edge and so are 4 of Labour's 6! The few Lib Dems are more entrenched in our model.
R to @DevolvedVotes: This is a decent poll for Reform, they're a touch above average but more importantly the Tories would be big enough to put them within striking distance of the majority line. The rainbow left alternative would be fragile.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047696767345467808#m
Published: April 24, 2026 15:18
This is a decent poll for Reform, they're a touch above average but more importantly the Tories would be big enough to put them within striking distance of the majority line. The rainbow left alternative would be fragile.
Our projection on the latest @findoutnow poll for the Senedd election. β‘οΈ Ref β 33 πΌ PC β 32 π³ Con β 12 π± GP β 10 πΉ Lab β 6 π€ LD β 3 https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047696763893465316#m
Published: April 24, 2026 15:18
Our projection on the latest @findoutnow poll for the Senedd election. β‘οΈ Ref β 33 πΌ PC β 32 π³ Con β 12 π± GP β 10 πΉ Lab β 6 π€ LD β 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: This basically means that it's Reform's "turn" more often. It's a consequence of the way D'Hondt works and is not something we have done deliberately. Reform outpolled Plaid in 24/32 Westminster seats last time so we think its valid, but we'll know for sure in 2 weeks.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047648290611646615#m
Published: April 24, 2026 12:06
This basically means that it's Reform's "turn" more often. It's a consequence of the way D'Hondt works and is not something we have done deliberately. Reform outpolled Plaid in 24/32 Westminster seats last time so we think its valid, but we'll know forβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: We have Plaid slightly ahead of Reform in votes, but tied in seats.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047648285465161973#m
Published: April 24, 2026 12:06
We have Plaid slightly ahead of Reform in votes, but tied in seats.
R to @DevolvedVotes: The reason our model generally favours Reform to get more seats than Plaid Cymru on the same share is geographic. We have Reform coming first in more constituencies than Plaid.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047648288044662789#m
Published: April 24, 2026 12:06
The reason our model generally favours Reform to get more seats than Plaid Cymru on the same share is geographic. We have Reform coming first in more constituencies than Plaid.
Our nowcast for the upcoming Senedd elections based on the current polling average: πΌ PC β 32 β‘οΈ Ref β 32 πΉ Lab β 14 π± GP β 9 π³ Con β 6 π€ LD β 3 You can make your own on: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047648280343978089#m
Published: April 24, 2026 12:06
Our nowcast for the upcoming Senedd elections based on the current polling average: πΌ PC β 32 β‘οΈ Ref β 32 πΉ Lab β 14 π± GP β 9 π³ Con β 6 π€ LD β 3 You can make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: On a constituency level it looks like this. 5 of the 9 projected Greens are 6th seats so are especially close. A small swing could knock a lot lof them out.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047648282776633692#m
Published: April 24, 2026 12:06
On a constituency level it looks like this. 5 of the 9 projected Greens are 6th seats so are especially close. A small swing could knock a lot lof them out.
R to @DevolvedVotes: This system shows the range of potential outcomes for all 16 constituencies.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047379841029152807#m
Published: April 23, 2026 18:19
This system shows the range of potential outcomes for all 16 constituencies.
R to @DevolvedVotes: Reform and Plaid Cymru are essentially tied in our Monte Carlo simulation. Labour are solidly in third with the Greens, Tories and Lib Dems behind. https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047379837531119911#m
Published: April 23, 2026 18:19
Reform and Plaid Cymru are essentially tied in our Monte Carlo simulation. Labour are solidly in third with the Greens, Tories and Lib Dems behind. devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦
Our projection on the latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social poll for next month's Senedd election: πΌ PC β 32 β‘οΈ Ref β 31 πΉ Lab β 13 π± GP β 9 π³ Con β 8 π€ LD β 3 Make you own on: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047379832015589839#m
Published: April 23, 2026 18:19
Our projection on the latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social poll for next month's Senedd election: πΌ PC β 32 β‘οΈ Ref β 31 πΉ Lab β 13 π± GP β 9 π³ Con β 8 π€ LD β 3 Make you own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/waleβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: We have Plaid Cymru narrowly ahead of Reform on these numbers. Reform lead in 9 constituencies, Plaid in 6, Greens in 1. This is why we generally have Reform doing a little better than Plaid on similar numbers, and why this is close despite Plaid having a 4 point lead.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047379834528047518#m
Published: April 23, 2026 18:19
We have Plaid Cymru narrowly ahead of Reform on these numbers. Reform lead in 9 constituencies, Plaid in 6, Greens in 1. This is why we generally have Reform doing a little better than Plaid on similar numbers, and why this is close despite Plaid havingβ¦
RT by @DevolvedVotes: This is worth running through, also kinda answers my earlier questions.
https://nitter.poast.org/rwb69/status/2047252974494220660#m
Published: April 23, 2026 09:55
This is worth running through, also kinda answers my earlier questions. Devolved Election Projections (@DevolvedVotes) devolvedelections.co.uk/scotβ¦ Maybe this will help give you an idea of potential outcomes. It is very up in the air right now ββ¦
Today is a great day for picking the poll that suits the party you like, but as a rule its better to use an average. Our Monte Carlo systems simulates the election 1000 times with numbers close to the average to give an idea of potential outcomes. https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-projects
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047251117331919057#m
Published: April 23, 2026 09:47
Today is a great day for picking the poll that suits the party you like, but as a rule its better to use an average. Our Monte Carlo systems simulates the election 1000 times with numbers close to the average to give an idea of potential outcomes. β¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: We've always downweighted FindOutNow in our polling average. Their sample comes from a postcode lottery site so isn't very unreliable and they sometimes publish clickbait nonsense and pass it off as real (Gorton & Denton). This isn't nonsense, its just their usual level of bad.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047237630077640832#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:54
We've always downweighted FindOutNow in our polling average. Their sample comes from a postcode lottery site so isn't very unreliable and they sometimes publish clickbait nonsense and pass it off as real (Gorton & Denton). This isn't nonsense, its justβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: Labour, the Tories and Reform would only get list seats, the Greens get loads too as they finish in second place.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047237627410047046#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:54
Labour, the Tories and Reform would only get list seats, the Greens get loads too as they finish in second place.
R to @DevolvedVotes: An overwhelmingly yellow map. 5 Lib Dem and 4 Green seats are the only ones not going to the SNP. The SNP's 35 isn't huge, but the huge Green vote is coming to their rescue, since most of those voters won't have a Green candidate. The Greens are so big that Shetland is in play.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047237624285348225#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:54
An overwhelmingly yellow map. 5 Lib Dem and 4 Green seats are the only ones not going to the SNP. The SNP's 35 isn't huge, but the huge Green vote is coming to their rescue, since most of those voters won't have a Green candidate. The Greens are so bigβ¦
Our projection for Holyrood election based on the lastest Scot Goes Pop/ @findoutnow poll ποΈ SNP β 64 π± GP β 21 β‘οΈ Ref β 16 πΉ Lab β 10 π€ LD β 10 π³ Con β 8 Make your own on: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047237621621903477#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:54
Our projection for Holyrood election based on the lastest Scot Goes Pop/ @findoutnow poll ποΈ SNP β 64 π± GP β 21 β‘οΈ Ref β 16 πΉ Lab β 10 π€ LD β 10 π³ Con β 8 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: The SNP aren't gaining List seats, except for maybe 1 in Highlands & Islands.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047230188488900658#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:24
The SNP aren't gaining List seats, except for maybe 1 in Highlands & Islands.
R to @DevolvedVotes: The SNP are losing seats they usually win in our model, and Reform are challenging the Tories in more places than before.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047230191026471394#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:24
The SNP are losing seats they usually win in our model, and Reform are challenging the Tories in more places than before.
R to @DevolvedVotes: Another colourful map as the SNP decline. Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are favoured in multiple seats - as are the Lib Dems but that's well established. The Greens don't win any on 1%, but win 3 on 2%, they're very tempermental so don't rule them out.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047230185221615668#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:24
Another colourful map as the SNP decline. Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are favoured in multiple seats - as are the Lib Dems but that's well established. The Greens don't win any on 1%, but win 3 on 2%, they're very tempermental so don't rule themβ¦
Our projection for May's Holyrood election based on the Ballot Box Scotland / @Survation poll ποΈ SNP β 59 β‘οΈ Ref β 21 πΉ Lab β 18 π³ Con β 13 π± GP β 11 π€ LD β 7 Make you own at: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2047230182126207256#m
Published: April 23, 2026 08:24
Our projection for May's Holyrood election based on the Ballot Box Scotland / @Survation poll ποΈ SNP β 59 β‘οΈ Ref β 21 πΉ Lab β 18 π³ Con β 13 π± GP β 11 π€ LD β 7 Make you own at: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotβ¦
R to @DevolvedVotes: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/ You can game out ways of getting to 49 here, the above coalition tool is included.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2046928816442880058#m
Published: April 22, 2026 12:27
devolvedelections.co.uk/wale⦠You can game out ways of getting to 49 here, the above coalition tool is included.
You need 49 Senedd seats to pass a budget. It can be a formal coalition, an informal understanding or a one off. Reform do not have a path. Plaid do.
https://nitter.poast.org/DevolvedVotes/status/2046928404063125948#m
Published: April 22, 2026 12:25
You need 49 Senedd seats to pass a budget. It can be a formal coalition, an informal understanding or a one off. Reform do not have a path. Plaid do. ITV Wales News (@ITVWales) What happens if Reform UK becomes the largest party in the Seneddβ¦