Does Trump have momentum?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/does-trump-have-momentum
Published: October 17, 2024 23:00
And what does “momentum” mean in the context of an election forecast?
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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, by Nate Silver, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?”
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
Published: October 16, 2024 17:45
And what would our forecast look like with only high-quality surveys?
Kamala Harris needs weird voters
https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-needs-weird-voters
Published: October 15, 2024 16:42
Why she wants to go on Rogan
New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment
https://www.natesilver.net/p/new-york-times-polls-are-betting
Published: October 12, 2024 17:29
Should you buy it?
Why you should mostly ignore "internal polls"
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-you-should-mostly-ignore-internal
Published: October 10, 2024 22:43
Unless you’re very careful, they add more noise than signal.
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Published: October 10, 2024 17:36
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
When you should panic about the polls
https://www.natesilver.net/p/when-you-should-panic-about-the-polls
Published: October 9, 2024 20:02
Most of the time, you shouldn't — but here are the exceptions.
55/45 is a really close race
https://www.natesilver.net/p/5545-is-a-really-close-race
Published: October 8, 2024 12:18
Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.
What’s behind Trump’s surge in prediction markets?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/whats-behind-trumps-surge-in-prediction
Published: October 7, 2024 22:47
Strange things can happen when you're in the doldrums.
Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/should-kamala-harris-gamble-on-a
Published: October 3, 2024 20:36
Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high.
Is Tim Walz bringing vibes to a knife fight?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-tim-walz-bringing-vibes-to-a-knife
Published: October 2, 2024 15:10
JD Vance revealed Democratic weaknesses — but they may not matter.