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A Model of Macroeconomic Policies with Endogenously Insurable Exchange Rates

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/188&r=&r=cba

Published: September 4, 2026 00:00

We propose a tractable small-open-economy model in which uncovered interest parity premia on foreign exchange (FX) markets arise from the endogenous lack of insurability of exchange rate risks. Asymmetric information about monetary policy can make the…

Stablecoins, Inflation and the Settlement Hierarchy (Martin Summer)

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:280&r=&r=cba

Published: September 3, 2026 00:00

Would widely adopted stablecoins affect the price level, and through which channels? We analyse this question in the monetary general-equilibrium framework of Dubey and Geanakoplos, in which payment capacity—money, bank credit and the spendable share of…

The Diffusion of Bank Reserves in the U.S.

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:103733&r=&r=cba

Published: September 3, 2026 00:00

The Federal Reserve implements monetary policy using an ample reserves system, which does not require active management of the total quantity of reserves to maintain interest rate control. The distribution and the diffusion of reserves across banks, and…

The Effects of Inflation on Banks’ Balance Sheets: Evidence from Emerging Markets

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:023577&r=&r=cba

Published: September 2, 2026 00:00

We study the impact of inflation on bank asset allocation. Utilizing a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) within a panel data framework, we analyze a comprehensive dataset of commercial banks across 63 emerging and developing economies from 2000 to…

Risk Management in Monetary Policy: A Review with Asset Pricing Implications

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103760&r=&r=cba

Published: September 1, 2026 00:00

We review recent research on how the Fed's risk-management approach shapes the overall policy stance and how it affects financial market conditions. The evidence shows that the policy stance contains a forward-looking, conditional component that has long…

How Do Market Expectations React to the FOMC Dot Plot?

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:103737&r=&r=cba

Published: September 1, 2026 00:00

The public pays close attention to Federal Reserve communications about future monetary policy, but it remains an open question how those communications shape the public’s expectations for the path of policy rates. We explore how market expectations adjust…

Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021–2024? Channels and evidence from expectations

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138478&r=&r=cba

Published: August 31, 2026 00:00

This article uses inflation expectations to investigate the mechanisms that linked supply and demand shocks to inflation outcomes during 2021–2024. It describes several theoretical mechanisms through which shocks led to inflation, highlighting the role of…

Bank Capital and Deposit Insurance

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:103726&r=&r=cba

Published: August 31, 2026 00:00

This paper examines the relationship between bank capital and reliance on insured deposit funding. Contrary to the conventional moral-hazard view underlying risk-based capital regulation, U.S. bank data reveal a robust negative association between capital…

How to Operationalize an Exchange Rate Peg

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2026/006&r=&r=cba

Published: August 28, 2026 00:00

A key objective of exchange rate pegs is to achieve price stability by stabilizing the value of the currency. However, the effectiveness of an exchange rate peg as a nominal anchor crucially depends on its operational design. This note provides guidance on…

Can Fiscal, AI, or Monetary News Explain the Rise in r∗?

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:103705&r=&r=cba

Published: August 27, 2026 00:00

Following decades of secular decline, many estimates of r∗—the natural or steady-state short-term real interest rate—have risen roughly 1 percentage point since 2020 in the United States. The most prominent explanations attribute this reversal to…

A Dual Mandate Can Support Price Stability

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:103696&r=&r=cba

Published: August 26, 2026 00:00

Since employment dynamics are persistent, a central bank’s dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability naturally generates history dependence in monetary policy. This history dependence under a dual mandate flattens the reduced-form…

Inferring Structural Beliefs from Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from Brazil

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/173&r=&r=cba

Published: August 21, 2026 00:00

I analyze multi-horizon market forecasts for macroeconomic variables in Brazil from 2010 to 2026, using a structural macroeconomic model to interpret stated beliefs as the outcomes of a coherent belief system. This produces time-varying beliefs about…