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Central Banking

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Posts: 9

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The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress

Published: July 3, 2024 00:00

We introduce the quantity theory of money into the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect model. Our policy rule specifies the impossibility of perfect exchange rate stability with monetary policy, as Friedman (1953) suggests. We discover the importance of…

The True Risk-free Rate: A Gateway to Bond Risk

Published: June 25, 2024 00:00

This study argues that a future payment’s risk approaches zero as maturity approaches zero. We employ two factors to model the risk-free rate (which is captured by the central bank’s short-term interest rate) that the market expects the current monetary…

Different Newspapers – Different Inflation Perceptions

Published: June 25, 2024 00:00

In this paper, I investigate how inflation signals from different types of newspapers influence household inflation expectations in Germany. Using text data and the large language model GPT-3.5-turbo-1106, I construct newspaper-specific indicators and find…

Stabilization vs. Redistribution: The Optimal Monetary-Fiscal Mix

Published: June 17, 2024 00:00

Stabilization and redistribution are intertwined in a model with heterogeneity, imperfect insurance, and nominal rigidity-making fiscal and monetary policy inextricably linked for aggregate-demand management. Movements in inequality induced by fiscal…

Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework

Published: June 13, 2024 00:00

THANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically core micro heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk; self-insurance, pre-cautionary saving, and realistic intertemporal marginal…

The outside option channel of central bank asset purchase programs: A tale of two crises

Published: June 8, 2024 00:00

I suggest a new channel through which central bank asset purchase programs could have effects on asset prices: The outside option channel. After the global financial crisis, central banks have widened the variety of assets they can purchase. Secondary…

The impact of bank regulation on commercial bank performance evidence from South Africa

Published: June 3, 2024 00:00

Using data on South Africas commercial banks in the period 20052018, this paper investigates the impact of bank regulation on bank performance. The study uses a fixed effects model to run the regression model as well as the data envelopment analysis…

Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update

Published: May 20, 2024 00:00

Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains…

Decomposing the Rate of Inflation: Price-Setting and Monetary Policy

Published: May 15, 2024 00:00

The paper adopts a TVP-VAR methodology to investigate the dynamics of inflation components for three countries: the UK, the US and Japan from 1993 to 2023. We deconstruct the CPI into components to examine the actual price changes that make up the CPI and…