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The Dynamics of Ample Reserves

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103530&r=&r=cba

Published: July 15, 2026 00:00

How monetary policy is implemented can have significant implications for the dynamics of the central bank’s balance sheet. If liquid deposits increase the demand for reserves (Lopez-Salido and Vissing-Jorgensen 2025), then the “ample” level of reserves…

The Tradition of Federal Reserve Independence

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:103485&r=&r=cba

Published: July 6, 2026 00:00

The tradition of Federal Reserve independence is encoded in statute in important ways but is also rooted in norms and practices. To articulate this tradition, we discuss how those norms and practices emerged historically from compromises over the…

Amplifying Transmission of Monetary Policy Through Deposit Competition

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hnb:wpaper:75&r=&r=cba

Published: June 17, 2026 00:00

We study the effects of a government initiative aimed at increasing the passthrough of monetary tightening to deposit rates. A large state-owned bank responded first to the initiative with a sharp and unexpected deposit rate increase. Competing banks…

Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Anomalies on Subnational Inflation in India: Heterogeneity, Monetary Policy and the Role of Inflation Targeting

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:uj8s3_v1&r=&r=cba

Published: June 10, 2026 00:00

This paper provides novel subnational evidence on the inflationary effects of climate shocks in India using monthly data for 21 states during 2013–2023 and panel local projections. Four main findings emerge. First, temperature shocks persistently raise…

Macroeconomic Drivers of Corporate Investment in the United Kingdom: A Multivariate Analysis

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:03_2026&r=&r=cba

Published: June 9, 2026 00:00

This study examines the macroeconomic drivers of corporate investment in the United Kingdom using a multivariate time-series framework. Focusing on five key variables-interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, exchange rates, and corporate profits-the analysis…

A Note on Seigniorage: Implications for a Modern Independent Central Bank System

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-010&r=&r=cba

Published: June 3, 2026 00:00

In a modern central bank system in which the government and the central bank are separate entities, seigniorage arises from the interest margin between the central bank’s assets and liabilities. However, the misconception that seigniorage is equivalent…

Federal Reserve Discount Rate Press Releases in the 1960s and 1970s through the Lens of Monetary Policy Communications

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103334&r=&r=cba

Published: May 29, 2026 00:00

This article examines press releases from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board) in the 1960s and 1970s related to changes in the discount rate through the lens of monetary policy communications. As argued by Yellen (2013), we start…

Monetary Policy Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Emerging and Frontier Markets

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/102&r=&r=cba

Published: May 22, 2026 00:00

This paper empirically reassesses monetary policy transmission in emerging and frontier market economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA EFMs). Using the identification approach of Romer and Romer (2004), we construct measures of monetary policy shocks and…

One Global Shock, Many Inflation Paths: Explaining Post-COVID Inflation Divergence

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/103&r=&r=cba

Published: May 22, 2026 00:00

This paper investigates why the post-COVID inflation surge, though globally synchronized, led to widely divergent outcomes across countries. Using cross-country regressions for 130 economies and local projections methods for 70 advanced and emerging…

Consumption responses to rising mortgage rates: Unpacking the cash-flow channel of monetary policy

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2604&r=&r=cba

Published: May 19, 2026 00:00

We study the transmission of rising interest rates to consumption using granular customerdata from a major bank in Denmark. We show that households with adjustable-ratemortgages gradually reduced spending and increased deposits as market rates soared in…

The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/097&r=&r=cba

Published: May 15, 2026 00:00

When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this…

When Policy Bites: State-Dependent Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/096&r=&r=cba

Published: May 15, 2026 00:00

We document the state-dependence of monetary policy transmission to output and core consumer prices in a sample of eleven large inflation-targeting emerging markets along three cyclical dimensions: the business cycle position, the monetary policy stance,…

Systemic Banking Crises Database: 1970-2025

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/094&r=&r=cba

Published: May 15, 2026 00:00

This paper presents an updated version of the Laeven and Valencia (2013, 2020) database on systemic banking crises, extending the coverage through 2025. The update incorporates new episodes, while maintaining the definition established in previous…

Anchored to the Dot Plot: Central Bank Projections and Interest Rate Expectations

https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103336&r=&r=cba

Published: May 14, 2026 00:00

In January 2012, the Federal Reserve began publishing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) "dot plot, " revealing FOMC participants' projections for the federal funds rate. This paper documents a dual role for SEP projections in the formation of…