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The moves to weaken Germany’s debt brake are welcome, but ultimately higher defense spending should be matched by higher taxes. Public spending cuts will promote right wing populists.
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Published: March 11, 2025 08:59
To say I have never
been a fan of the way Germany views government debt is an
understatement. Here
I asked whether Germany’s debt brake mechanism,
foolishly enshrined in the country’s constitution, was the worst
ever fiscal rule. The answer was not quite,…
Current UK stagnation may have many causes, but one we know about is the UK media. Plus why the UK definition of a recession is no longer fit for purpose.
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Published: March 4, 2025 09:03
In the UK the
definition of recession used
by most people is two successive quarters of falling
GDP. This definition always involved a knife edge problem. If GDP
fell by 0.1% in two successive quarters we were officially in
recession, but if output fell by…
A New World Order
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Published: February 26, 2025 08:58
I don’t write
about international power politics because normally I just don’t
know enough about the countries and actors involved, even though it
often seems as if this is also true of many of those who do talk
about such things. If there was ever going…
Is Trump a Populist or a Fascist?
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Published: February 18, 2025 08:57
Answering questions
of this type inevitably involves a discussion of definitions, in
this case about what populism and fascism actually mean. It is
perfectly reasonable to therefore ask whether the answer matters, if
by making reasonable changes in…
Quantifying the continuing UK public spending squeeze
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Published: February 11, 2025 09:42
In her October
budget the Chancellor raised total government spending by 1.8% of GDP
compared to the plans of her predecessors, which means that total
public spending as a ratio to GDP stays pretty flat over the 5 year
forecast period. (Anyone who calls…
A government of small change
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Published: February 4, 2025 08:55
Since the end of the
1970s, when a new party has taken power in the UK they have started
with a reasonably loud bang. Thatcher brought monetarism and
neoliberalism. With Blair/Brown came an independent Bank of England,
a national minimum wage, peace in…
Labour and Growth
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Published: January 28, 2025 09:03
Is this Labour
government right to make achieving growth so
central to its missions? Does making higher growth a central priority require Labour has a theory of
growth?
I think the answer
to the first question is yes and no! Wanting better economic…
Mediamacro melodrama
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Published: January 20, 2025 08:52
The UK macroeconomy
was one of the big stories of the previous two weeks, so you might think this blog
post should have covered it earlier. However my guess at the time was that
media coverage was a bit like a nervous flyer who, when the plane
hits a bit…
The battle of our age
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Published: January 14, 2025 10:29
In my
last post of 2024 I noted that the main political
battles in many countries would be between on the one hand socially
conservative right wing plutocratic populists and on the other centre
or centre/left parties tentatively moving away from…
Vibes for the economy and other things
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Published: January 7, 2025 09:15
As I and many others
noted
after Trump won, real median household income didn’t grow nearly as
much under Biden as it did during Trump’s first presidency. But
there is more to the story of why 45%
of voters said they had become worse off under Biden.
Paul…