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Posts: 10
Followers: 1
The new silent majority
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Published: April 15, 2025 08:03
The term silent majority, in both the UK and US, was once used for voters who were socially conservative and also, it was assumed by the politicians who used the term, moderately conservative in their economic views. While the ‘majority’ part was dubious,…
Why populists can do so much harm
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Published: April 8, 2025 07:57
Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ naturally reminded me of Johnson’s ‘Independence Day’. There are of course many differences between the two. Tariffs are a tax on imports, while Brexit erected bureaucratic barriers to trade with the UK’s largest trading partner. A…
Last week’s spending cuts were not the fault of the OBR or a medium term golden fiscal rule
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Published: April 1, 2025 08:06
In my last post I said that Rachel Reeves’s statement last week, and more generally the way fiscal policy has been done since 2010, had nothing to do with the OBR. Many have subsequently questioned this, noting that the OBR was set up in 2010 by George…
Why can’t we do fiscal policy in a grown up way?
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Published: March 27, 2025 08:50
I suspect to most people what Rachel Reeves announced yesterday went like this. The OBR published a forecast, something it has to do twice a year. Compared to its forecast that went with last year’s October budget, things have got worse, and if Reeves did…
Labour’s strategic error on tax
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Published: March 25, 2025 09:10
Two things have become clear to many people since Labour came to government. The first is that the party had done less preparation work for becoming the government than Blair/Brown did in 1997. Given what happened in 2019 its focus was understandably on…
Falling confidence in vaccination illustrates how the media’s obsession with balance and impartiality, and its aversion to regulation, can kill.
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Published: March 18, 2025 10:16
In the United States it is easy to view falling rates of vaccination for diseases like measles as a simple consequence of a right wing populist Republican party that has become anti-science. However I suspect that may be confusing an effect (the promotion…
The moves to weaken Germany’s debt brake are welcome, but ultimately higher defense spending should be matched by higher taxes. Public spending cuts will promote right wing populists.
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Published: March 11, 2025 08:59
To say I have never been a fan of the way Germany views government debt is an understatement. Here I asked whether Germany’s debt brake mechanism, foolishly enshrined in the country’s constitution, was the worst ever fiscal rule. The answer was not quite,…
Current UK stagnation may have many causes, but one we know about is the UK media. Plus why the UK definition of a recession is no longer fit for purpose.
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Published: March 4, 2025 09:03
In the UK the definition of recession used by most people is two successive quarters of falling GDP. This definition always involved a knife edge problem. If GDP fell by 0.1% in two successive quarters we were officially in recession, but if output fell by…
A New World Order
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Published: February 26, 2025 08:58
I don’t write about international power politics because normally I just don’t know enough about the countries and actors involved, even though it often seems as if this is also true of many of those who do talk about such things. If there was ever going…
Is Trump a Populist or a Fascist?
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Published: February 18, 2025 08:57
Answering questions of this type inevitably involves a discussion of definitions, in this case about what populism and fascism actually mean. It is perfectly reasonable to therefore ask whether the answer matters, if by making reasonable changes in…