🦜 @sethwalder.bsky.social - Seth Walder
@bsky.app.profile.sethwalder.bsky.social@rss-parrot.net
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ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
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https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mklhvrrxrc2i
Published: April 28, 2026 20:56
Sometimes it’s hard to know if a selection is an “actual” reach or if the league was simply higher on the player than the outside world realized.
So for these six players, I asked!
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mkkvgrcn642r
Published: April 28, 2026 15:26
I asked 5 front office members about where these players were selected.
Keylan Rutledge
Jadarian Price
De'Zhaun Stribling
Nate Boerkircher
Marlin Klein
Caleb Douglas
Were they:
A. Not a reach. League liked them more than outside.
B. Light reach
C. True…
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mkboh2sbxv25
Published: April 24, 2026 23:27
47% of Texans users in our draft simulator took Kayden McDonald at pick No. 28.
47%!!!!!!!!!!!
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mkbnnjgd5c2e
Published: April 24, 2026 23:12
We'll see what the reaction is from the rest of the league but by the Draft Day Predictor Stribling is a huge reach at 33.
His median selection point was pick No. 105.
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk7g6tesbk2q
Published: April 24, 2026 01:53
Wow, Caleb Banks at No. 18 -- Draft Day Predictor gave him just an 18% chance to be selected in the first round at all entering tonight.
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk7fhgnb5o2h
Published: April 24, 2026 01:40
Who will be available at pick No. 23 (Eagles)?
Live update from the Draft Day Predictor through Pick 15:
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk7es37uxv2g
Published: April 24, 2026 01:28
Entering tonight, the Draft Day Predictor gave Ty Simpson a 10% chance to be selected at pick No. 13 or earlier.
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk7d36sovn2w
Published: April 24, 2026 00:58
At the time of pick No. 6, there was a 90% chance Mansoor Delane would make it to pick No. 9 according to the Draft Day Predictor.
Even if you think that number is a little strong, that's the hidden cost of trade-ups: there's a substantial chance the…
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk7bdopiva2q
Published: April 24, 2026 00:27
I did sort of always feel like at some point people would remember taking a running back in the top 5 is a terrible idea but, well
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk7ahehfws2e
Published: April 24, 2026 00:11
Reminder that the Draft Day Predictor will update its probabilities LIVE as picks come in!
https://espnanalytics.com/draft-predictor/
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk6sd6ldrj2u
Published: April 23, 2026 19:58
62% of Jets users picking at No. 2 selected Arvell Reese over the last seven days in our draft simulator.
https://www.espnanalytics.com/draft-sim-results?view=pick&pick=2
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk6oypsmo222
Published: April 23, 2026 18:58
Small project: Spent some time over the last week seeing if I could create a wide receiver model that incorporated data from Telemetry sports that could better predict a player’s yards per route run in a player’s first four years than the draft itself.
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk6l43gcyz2p
Published: April 23, 2026 17:49
Draft sim has been updated following final mocks!
GET YOUR LAST DRAFT SIMS IN BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk6e4o55qw2q
Published: April 23, 2026 15:44
This is a year-old chart from Ben Baldwin on twitter, but sharing because it's such an important chart.
It demonstrates the league does not sufficiently bake in positional value in the draft. If it did, those lines would all be roughly the same.
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk6ctvfp7r2j
Published: April 23, 2026 15:21
Draft Day Predictor has undergone its final pre-draft update!
It will also be updating LIVE during the draft.
https://espnanalytics.com/draft-predictor/
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk6bdozpe22m
Published: April 23, 2026 14:54
I think lots of teams should try to do this every year.
The market values this year > next year but there's no real reason to do so.
If I'm say, Carolina, I'm calling the Saints and seeing what 2027 picks they want to offer for pick 19.
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https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mk4czsmbhm2q
Published: April 22, 2026 20:19
If you're not trading down you're not trying.
People say it takes two to tango when it comes to trades. And that's true. But one thing I've learned is just how frequent offers are.
They're not always there in early round 1. But in round 2, my…
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjzpsya2nt2u
Published: April 21, 2026 19:30
No single person (well technically, device) has done 1,000 drafts yet on our draft simulator. The most is 743.
There's still time for you to be the 1,000 draft hero.
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjzguz4j6l24
Published: April 21, 2026 16:50
At the bottom of the story I included a different project:
I wanted to explore if play speed metrics (from Telemetry Sports) in conjunction with 40 times could help predict NFL WR speed better than 40 times alone.
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https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjzgcfi2sl2s
Published: April 21, 2026 16:39
A number in here that I think will be of interest to Jets fans:
There is a 40% chance that at least *one of* Makai Lemon or Jordyn Tyson is available at 16.
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https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjzanwvtsa22
Published: April 21, 2026 14:59
How likely is Ty Simpson to reach the second round? How far does Dallas have to trade up to land Sonny Styles or Caleb Downs? Which receivers could be on the board for Philadelphia at 23?
We turned to the Draft Day Predictor for (probabilistic) answers.
…
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjxcvlhcdc24
Published: April 20, 2026 20:33
ESPN's draft simulator was updated today following the latest mock drafts!
And it of course also reflects the Giants having pick No. 10!
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjwkalg5zk2q
Published: April 20, 2026 13:12
I'm curious the details with guarantees on Dexter Lawrence's extension. Because simply adding a third year at $28 million, if it didn't any guarantees, would be a straight up worse contract (for him) than the one he was on. So I have to assume something…
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjwjmironv2s
Published: April 20, 2026 13:01
New ESPN draft simulator feature: how often users select each player at each pick!
Can see here that Jets users select Makai Lemon at 16 more than anyone else, and far more often than the draft day predictor forecasts.
…
https://bsky.app/profile/sethwalder.bsky.social/post/3mjswejq4xs2n
Published: April 19, 2026 02:38
My grades and analysis on the Dexter Lawrence deal.
One team came out way, way ahead here!
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47911726/2026-nfl-free-agency-grades-signings-trades-latest-best-worst-deals-draft-outlook