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🦜 @michaelcaley.bsky.social - Michael Caley

@bsky.app.profile.michaelcaley.bsky.social@rss-parrot.net

I'm an automated parrot! I relay a website's RSS feed to the Fediverse. Every time a new post appears in the feed, I toot about it. Follow me to get all new posts in your Mastodon timeline! Brought to you by the RSS Parrot.

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I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.

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Site URL: bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social

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Posts: 86

Followers: 1

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mklhlmgbws2k

Published: April 28, 2026 20:50

the scoreline is.... incredible but it can also mislead you into thinking the game was non-stop high quality chances it was undoubtedly non stop, to be clear, but there were also a ton of attacks stopped by last ditch defending just, the quality of the…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mklgocbb3k2s

Published: April 28, 2026 20:34

after going up 5-2, PSG dropped off their press and tried to defend in numbers against Bayern possession and hold the lead and that's the one thing that PSG are not elite at, up against the thing that Bayern are the very best in the world at

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mklglz55cc2s

Published: April 28, 2026 20:33

I remember back in like 2018-19 when Harry Kane started dropping in constantly and trying to spray passes and it was maddening because he wasn't that good at it and he was getting fewer shots and goals and then he figured it out and now he plays some of…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mklg3ab5js2s

Published: April 28, 2026 20:23

I still think Bayern's approach to this game has been really good. It's just tough, when you take these risks, sometimes the other team's great players just score some great goals against you. (and you get screwed on a penalty decision) also this isn't…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkl6en4egc2n

Published: April 28, 2026 18:05

this is the @jamellebouie.net point more or less, but -to most Americans, Trump was an avatar of wealth and success -he was elected president and the US economy ran at Goldilocks levels for three years then everyone got personal checks from him -so they…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkl4w2s4js2n

Published: April 28, 2026 17:39

this is a deeply, deeply concerning article that suggests Trump is deciding between two horrendous choices: extending the double blockade for weeks to months, or massive military escalation https://www.axios.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-peace-talks-stalemate

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkkzkxvgwk2n

Published: April 28, 2026 16:40

once you take on board that this is what swing voters are like, you have to think differently about how to win elections people with coherent ideological frameworks who pay attention to the world will know that they want to vote and who they'll vote for …

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkkyqbhcos2s

Published: April 28, 2026 16:25

so broadly imo 1) random variation (or "curses") 2) bad org structure between coach and training staff 3) bad re-org / hiring in attempt to fix (2) 4) poor squad building requiring overwork at key positions 5) injury cascades from the interaction of 1-4…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkkwunnkvc2n

Published: April 28, 2026 15:51

excellent blog -how Warsh's testimony suggests not just his yes-man orientation but a worryingly shallow grasp of the state of research -how "trimmed mean" estimates played a role in both the slow reaction to the 2021-22 inflation spike and the slow…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkktzg2yis2x

Published: April 28, 2026 15:00

people have poor intuitions about inflation and trying to win elections and to govern under inflationary conditions is a needle to thread but it is hard to say, looking at the range of mod-lib to left responses to this moment, that the parties even…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkkl4disqc2r

Published: April 28, 2026 12:21

Bayern and PSG are two great teams that are only not great in one pretty specific situation -- when you can get a hold of the ball, push them back, and force them to defend in numbers. So we should expect a real fight over possession in midfield because…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkgkqxsv522l

Published: April 26, 2026 22:04

there is a real majority in Israel that opposes Netanyahu's personal corruption and his undermining of norms in service of that corruption, but there is vanishingly little constituency for any change to Netanyahu's core policy achievement, Israel's one…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkbhuhwfak2s

Published: April 24, 2026 21:29

in light of the Sunderland result, sharing my Expecting Goals study about what happens when teams have "nothing to play for" It was a fun study for me because it primarily finds conventional wisdom is true: they get worse because they stop defending …

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkbdmpgqfs2s

Published: April 24, 2026 20:13

prostate cancer is the classic "more likely to die with it than die of it" cancer, treatments are well tested and for whatever reason most prostate cancers are slow-growing and easy to contain with a standard level of care [contains quote post or other…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkb4ta4ues2s

Published: April 24, 2026 18:11

excellent point by @weisenthal.bsky.social in the Odd Lots newsletter The stock market keeps going up for the extremely simple reason that American companies keep making lots of money the stock market returns follow from that more or less trivially…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkau6cz65k2z

Published: April 24, 2026 15:36

"improbably" lol facing an existential military threat and suffering horrific bombing of civilian areas as well led to regime consolidation, improved popular support, and the elevation of a less conciliatory political leaders no one could have predicted …

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkasgvro5s2z

Published: April 24, 2026 15:05

we have a mostly unknown, relatively unpopular politics streamer without particularly compelling views (he is hot tho) and for reasons I really struggle to grasp both sides of an internal Democratic Party debate seem invested in elevating him to a defining…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mkamv4fmbs2z

Published: April 24, 2026 13:26

it is interesting that Aragchi is leading this delegation, after Times reporting that he has been marginalized within regime decision-making there's a wide spectrum of possible meanings, but I think we'll learn a lot from what comes out of his trip …

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk6jptemls24

Published: April 23, 2026 17:24

the whole swath of the Israeli mainstream, the government, the military, the media, most of the opposition too, is utterly fucking desperate to re-start the war and usher in a global depression [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk6dbsnhes24

Published: April 23, 2026 15:29

if Democrats had flipped just a couple more seats in 2024 and won back the House, the Speaker right now would still be Mike Johnson because Dems would have lost the majority again after too many members died of old age and disease [contains quote post or…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk6ce33b4s24

Published: April 23, 2026 15:12

fascinating paper finds small overall effects from GLP-1s (still a decrease in heart attack, stroke, and kidney disease tho!) and no knock-on spending or care utilization changes but the primary cause appears to be inefficient prescribing relative to…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk63xwzums24

Published: April 23, 2026 13:18

this from the new @gelliottmorris.com Strength in Numbers poll gets at the core problem for Democrats in winning over swing voters swing voters hated Joe Biden, they hated the inflation, they hated him running again and then hated how he dropped out…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk62oudfqk2q

Published: April 23, 2026 12:55

this from the Economist seems like the simplest tracker of what's going on with energy markets so long as there are inventories you can use what exists and plan on heightened pricing for a long time once the strait reopens rather than demand destruction…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk5ws77w3k2q

Published: April 23, 2026 11:45

This is excellent, and I think particularly for the dialectical analysis that the new right should be understood as an intentional reaction to the techniques of "woke 1" and that requires a different kind of left/lib politics (which we can also see coming…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk4oe5rhrc2l

Published: April 22, 2026 23:42

I really think more people on this website need to read this article John Fetterman had a massive stroke in 2022 and it changed his personality in some pretty terrifying ways There isn't really such a thing as "pulling a Fetterman" this is about what…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk4gomnocs2l

Published: April 22, 2026 21:24

Here's what's funny about this It got leaked by FIFA because it actually really pissed FIFA off because undermining the interests of many corrupt smaller FAs is the one line that FIFA leadership cannot afford to cross, their power is fully dependent on…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk4g5ymrgs2l

Published: April 22, 2026 21:15

there were all these very serious debates about whether Hasan Piker has a Dangerous Illiberal Ideology and What This Means About Our Politics and then he gets interviewed in the paper and he's like yeah bro it looked pretty sick when the louvre got robbed…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk45x5awbk2j

Published: April 22, 2026 18:48

this is a chart of American priests the American Church has been conservative for a long time, and what's misleading about this chart is that "theological" liberalism meant Vatican II at the time the woke Pope is a South American priest who happens to be…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3zwarscs24

Published: April 22, 2026 17:36

new statement by Ghalibaf -Iran continues to emphasize their demand to end the US blockade -Iran continues to play fast-and-loose with which blockade is an act of war that prevents talks from happening and which one can only be taken down after talks…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3ty54ta224

Published: April 22, 2026 15:50

I am very dubious of this claim that Iran's fractured decision-making hierarchy is the problem in these talks and I am worried about how a poor grasp of Iran's politics is the thing that got us into this stupid war in the first place and where it could…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3qgnnnds24

Published: April 22, 2026 14:46

I'd love to see the full article version of this @natecohn.bsky.social thread but it's compelling -thanks to edpol the Dem vote is much more efficiently distributed -this means boring, compact independent commission maps would work as national…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3oea2qu224

Published: April 22, 2026 14:09

I want to apologize to fellow Spurs fans when a mysterious crone on the roadside gave me that monkey's paw and I wished for the club to professionalize its football operations, build in-house analytics, and focus on process over results, I forgot to add…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3kc56hv224

Published: April 22, 2026 12:56

so 1) strong recommend for this post, he does a very good job working through the club's books and explaining it for a general audience 2) but I think the framing is wrong -- it's not any kind of normal "private equity strategy" to lose tons of money…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3k24ote224

Published: April 22, 2026 12:52

I am very worried that Liam Rosenior is *right now* torching his managerial gig in a terrible overreaction to a cold finishing run but we should recognize that what happened before yesterday's match was at like 90 percent just a really poorly timed bad…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk3eezz6dc2t

Published: April 22, 2026 11:10

here's one of those insane, horrible connections of the contemporary era the primary liaison between the UAE and the genocidaires in the RSF over this time has been Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan the owner of Manchester City football club [contains…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mk25iqyme22c

Published: April 21, 2026 23:35

a) it's unalloyed good news that the redistricting in Virginia is nearly certain to pass b) the fact that the margin looks like it'll run ~10 points behind Spanberger 2025 points to the limitations of political maximalism -- Virginia is blue enough we can…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mjzuvepe6c2c

Published: April 21, 2026 21:01

Chelsea have dropped tons of points under Rosenior but the underlying performance and tactical data looked ~fine then today they played one of the worst games I've seen Chelsea play, ever which could be a one off with injuries or it could be the moment…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mjzoyu6lic2c

Published: April 21, 2026 19:15

well we've got a standoff here I continue to bet on the countries that want or need a deal to end the war coming up with that deal but the downside risk has never been zero and this is definitely a moment where someone is gonna make a major decision and…

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3mjzdcev5wk2b

Published: April 21, 2026 15:46

it's pretty funny how, because it's about 16 hours from DC to Islamabad and under 3 hours from Tehran to Islamabad, everyone's being all squirrely about whether and when they'll get on the plane and once Vance is confirmed, Iran will probably try to do a…