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"'A man without a plan is not a man.' Nietzsche." Professor in the Department of Government and SFS @ Georgetown. I study international order, power politics, & empires. dhnexon.net | https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com | duckofminerva.com |

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Posts: 34

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https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2tyajbiks2x

Published: October 10, 2025 15:27

Remember: ā€“ Your symbolic kit for these rallies should be red, white, and blue. ā€“ if you plan to use these rallies to push some other cause, please stay away. And no, that won't prevent the Far-Right Cinematic Universe from misrepresenting the rallies.ā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2smnifgqs2a

Published: October 10, 2025 02:26

šŸ§µ I am not an expert on the Middle East and I am not privy to any special information about the negotiations that produced the current Gaza deal. I'm going to lay out some "educated guesses" with the hope that people who actually know what they'reā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2kozuyhds2t

Published: October 6, 2025 22:48

Some of the account in the charging documents, at least as described here, sound like the kind of thing you'd see in an investigation into whether soldiers violated ROEs when firing on a civilian vehicle. And that is not, I submit, an accident. [containsā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2kakigc7s2f

Published: October 6, 2025 18:29

The era of deepfakes ā˜¢ļø in a media ecosystem dominated by "do your own research," "vetting is biased," & "debate me, bro." But maybe we need a lot more people to stop trusting social media ā€”Ā and to understand why it's important to have professionalā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2ka3psp5c2f

Published: October 6, 2025 18:20

If you're finding all this talk of "competitive authoritarianism" (consolidated or unconsolidated) confusing, @joyner.bsky.social has a brief explainer šŸ‘‡ https://outsidethebeltway.com/competitive-authoritarianism/

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2hvjp4gyc2f

Published: October 5, 2025 20:06

I've updated a @lawgunsmoney.bsky.social post I wrote some months ago. Trump 1.0 led to an obsession with "Great-Power Competition" (GPC) as the defining feature of USFP and international order. Some of us were skeptical, but what could you do? Trump 2.0ā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2hjc5rusk2c

Published: October 5, 2025 16:27

Re: what local and state officials should tell police officers to do: the moment they tell them to actively impeded federal law enforcement they trigger statutory conditions for a lot of bad shit, including the nationalization of the state guard.

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2g4asqwf22o

Published: October 5, 2025 03:01

šŸ§µ Fascism is an ideology. The government is fascist. But it's an unconsolidated competitive authoritarian regime, not a totalitarian one. @justinscasey.bsky.social and I discuss this, and the heterogeneity of interwar fascism, here šŸ‘‡ [contains quote postā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2fca4elx22a

Published: October 4, 2025 19:15

Why are those of us with even passing familiarity with authoritarian consolidation freaking out? Because the answers to a) will Trump's paramilitary forces fire on civilians and b) will elements in the military follow orders to carry out unambiguouslyā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2fbnohmhs2a

Published: October 4, 2025 19:05

Yes. Do not rush to conclusions. But as the story develops, this looks more and more like a targeted attack. Also, once again, DHS has already been caught lying about the incident and cannot be trusted. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2f5gmvyvc2a

Published: October 4, 2025 17:50

You might be living in a consolidating authoritarian regime if agents of the state invade peoples homes, detain them without cause, and destroy their property just for good measure. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2f5c2kpns2a

Published: October 4, 2025 17:47

This is my second "despairant" (or maybe "rantspair") in as many days. In this one, I riff on the new @wired.com piece documenting Trump's efforts to build a surveillance state ā€” more or less explicitly to target anyone the regime doesn't like ā€” under theā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2d72tiboc2t

Published: October 3, 2025 23:13

Current mood: if they try to seize ballot boxes and nullify the midterms (odds 75/25?) theyā€™ll use DHS (mainly ICE) & loyalists in FBI against protests. Thereā€™s easily critical mass that will open fire. So not about ā€œwill the security services fire onā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2b2ig5rzk2p

Published: October 3, 2025 02:46

When I say DDR problem I mean thereā€™s a chance that weā€™ll need to approach ICE through the same lens that other countries deal with former combatants in civil conflicts. I donā€™t actually mean itā€™s a DDR issue. What Iā€™m trying to emphasize is that theā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2azjnbz5c2p

Published: October 3, 2025 02:29

We need to be clear-eyed about this. Roberts does not care about precedent. He does not care about original public meaning. He does not care about the text of the Constitution. We have to assume that the Court will move to block ANY pro-democracy reforms. ā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m2ayhh4jis2p

Published: October 3, 2025 02:10

There should be working groups, & they should not include consultants or serve as sinecures for high-level policy aides (see Project 2029). There are a few things that are not up for debate. If Dems donā€™t unpack the Court ā€” no matter how much pundits yellā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m24cvejby22a

Published: October 1, 2025 05:33

The administration has two main impulses: kleptocracy and reactionary ideology. The kleptocrats just want to squeeze as much money as possible out of the government. The reactionaries are utopians who think that if they roll back the enlightenment thenā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m24ch2e4qs2a

Published: October 1, 2025 05:25

Trumpland is full of idiots who believe that economic & military capabilities fall from coconut trees. They're ignorant & arrogant people who obsess over branding & aesthetics. They think they're about hard power & machtpolitik, but they're actually doingā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m24bdjs3wk2a

Published: October 1, 2025 05:05

Why do this over ACA subsidies? It's not just the stated reasons. Extending them is a) popular and b) a "red line" for a number of Rs in the House and Senate. Not all wedge issues are cultural. Not saying that the GOP or that the Ds won't cave. Justā€¦

https://bsky.app/profile/dhnexon.bsky.social/post/3m22uoop4o225

Published: September 30, 2025 15:46

I bet the people in that room understand that Hegseth intends to use physical fitness to purge high-ranking officers whom he perceives as disloyal & drive out even more qualified women from command posts. Yes heā€™s a clown. Heā€™s also the second-in-commandā€¦