RSS Parrot

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml2go774wk2x

Published: May 4, 2026 19:44

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for Thursday's Senedd election. ➡️ Ref — 34 🌼 PC — 33 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 9 🌱 GP — 6 🐤 LD — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkzqbis3wc2c

Published: May 4, 2026 13:03

Our Projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll. 🎗️ SNP — 57 ➡️ Ref — 23 🌹 Lab — 15 🐤 LD — 13 🌱 GP — 11 🌳 Con — 10 Play around with your own numbers on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkzmlnpjyc22

Published: May 4, 2026 11:57

I've been very anti-MRP because they've mostly been worse than useless. This one looks to be the first one to do the basics right. We'll see on Friday if its accurate. https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insights/more-in-common-final-holyrood-mrp/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkwsc3sqwk2c

Published: May 3, 2026 09:01

What does winning mean? Plaid Cymru The latest in our Party by Party blogs looks at Plaid's chances, and why becoming first minister looks almost inevitable. https://devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/plaid-cymru/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkwqultlws2n

Published: May 3, 2026 08:36

Our projection on the latest Norstat / @thetimes.com 🎗️ SNP — 58 🌹 Lab — 18 ➡️ Ref — 17 🌳 Con — 13 🐤 LD — 12 🌱 GP — 11 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mku7trq6c22r

Published: May 2, 2026 08:26

If your MRP shows the SNP winning 66 seats, including every Tory seat, but losing Cunninghame South to Reform, then it's not a good MRP. Yet another expensive MRP which is at odds with all the other expensive MRPs.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkrs7gyzvs2m

Published: May 1, 2026 09:16

We're going to be running a live comparison of the various MRPs and projection sites in Scotland & Wales on results day. All this data, including the real results, will be available for download as soon as the final results are in.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkpcjqucf22n

Published: April 30, 2026 09:31

With one week to go before the Senedd election, this is our current Nowcast. ➡️ Ref — 34 🌼 PC — 32 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 8 🌳 Con — 6 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkp674trw22k

Published: April 30, 2026 08:13

One week to go before the 2026 Holyrood election! 🎗️ SNP — 63 ➡️ Ref — 18 🌹 Lab — 17 🌳 Con — 11 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 10 Try it for yourself: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkmu5ls6e22s

Published: April 29, 2026 10:08

Our latest Edinburgh seat projections in the @heraldscotland.bsky.social today. You can get see the odds in every Scottish constituency seat here: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-projects [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkmou3wn5k23

Published: April 29, 2026 08:33

Our projection for next week's Senedd election based on the @survation.bsky.social @aberuni.bsky.social @newyddion.s4c.cymru poll. ➡️ Ref — 38 🌼 PC — 31 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 8 🌳 Con — 4 🐤 LD — 2 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkiqtyu6lk2x

Published: April 27, 2026 18:58

Most English and Welsh councils are not democratically elected. People are either represented by 3 people they voted for or 0. If a far-right despot implemented it elsewhere the UK would condemn it and our media would talk about rigged elections. …

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mki2sp4z4s23

Published: April 27, 2026 12:24

A projection for May's Holyrood election based on the latest @survation.bsky.social / Diffley Partnerships poll: 🎗️ SNP — 60 ➡️ Ref — 20 🌹 Lab — 17 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 10 Try your own numbers at: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkdj3v4sas2y

Published: April 25, 2026 16:56

They would most likely win 4. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkbbzs66c22m

Published: April 24, 2026 19:44

We weight most pollsters equally but FON and a few other get a lower weight because their methods are... questionable We only weight JLP as 0. If you're too incompetent to run something as basic as D'Hondt, I don't trust to do something as complicated as…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkat64jt7k27

Published: April 24, 2026 15:18

Our projection on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for the Senedd election. ➡️ Ref — 33 🌼 PC — 32 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🌹 Lab — 6 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkaifihpxc23

Published: April 24, 2026 12:06

Our nowcast for the upcoming Senedd elections based on the current polling average: 🌼 PC — 32 ➡️ Ref — 32 🌹 Lab — 14 🌱 GP — 9 🌳 Con — 6 🐤 LD — 3 You can make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk6ms6vylc2q

Published: April 23, 2026 18:19

Our projection on the latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social poll for next month's Senedd election: 🌼 PC — 32 ➡️ Ref — 31 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 9 🌳 Con — 8 🐤 LD — 3 Make you own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk5pzkoick25

Published: April 23, 2026 09:44

Today is a great day for picking the poll that suits the party you like, but as a rule its better to use an average. Our Monte Carlo systems simulates the election 1000 times with different numbers close to the average to give an idea of potential…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk5n7utrek2e

Published: April 23, 2026 08:54

Our projection for Holyrood election based on the lastest Scot Goes Pop/ @findoutnow.bsky.social poll: 🎗️ SNP — 64 🌱 GP — 21 ➡️ Ref — 16 🌹 Lab — 10 🐤 LD — 10 🌳 Con — 8 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk5lkvbjp22t

Published: April 23, 2026 08:24

Our projection for May's Holyrood election based on the @ballotbox.scot / @survation.bsky.social poll 🎗️ SNP — 59 ➡️ Ref — 21 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 13 🌱 GP — 11 🐤 LD — 7 Make you own at: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjzpnyf25k2v

Published: April 21, 2026 19:27

Yet more MRP shenanigans. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjzjixk6us2c

Published: April 21, 2026 17:37

A DevolvedElections projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk @itvnews.bsky.social @cardiffuni.bsky.social ➡️ Ref — 36 🌼 PC — 32 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 9 🌳 Con — 3 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjysdsz3gk2h

Published: April 21, 2026 10:42

The JLPartners / @telegraph.co.uk poll was also completely wrong in Wales. I ran their numbers and even the 82 seats they did call are wrong. Plaid are under, Labour are over, and it should be 11 Tories and 1 LD, but they have 14 seats uncalled.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjwvw6oadk27

Published: April 20, 2026 16:41

On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations. The real numbers are: SNP: 57 Labour:21 Conservatives: 13 Liberal Democrats: 8 Greens: 11 Reform: 19 This is really basic stuff.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjw6dcgzq22q

Published: April 20, 2026 09:39

Lets take a simple example, the Greens are only running in 6 seats. Does anything think they'd pick two of their absolute worst places? This MRP thinks so. I don't expect them to win Shetland, but 1%? Come on. [contains quote post or other embedded…