RSS Parrot

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mldthdtym22a

Published: May 8, 2026 13:27

This is a ridiculous set of swings

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mldpvqqrtc22

Published: May 8, 2026 12:23

First major shock of the day. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mldpeonyhs2v

Published: May 8, 2026 12:14

We have our first results for the 2026 devolved elections! Two widely expected results Scotland Lib Dem: Orkney SNP: Dundee City West devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ We're also top of the accuracy league table! I know it's meaningless right now but it…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mldcnkeqp22a

Published: May 8, 2026 08:26

Results expected from midday...ish. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mlda6s26dk2a

Published: May 8, 2026 07:42

I'll be dropping in over the day as results roll in [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mlc6lhc6w225

Published: May 7, 2026 21:40

We're going to be running live results and a side by side comparison of all MRPs and lots of Projection sites. The pages are live now and will update as results come in tomorrow. Results: devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ Accuracy:…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mlb6foasvk23

Published: May 7, 2026 12:05

There are multiple potential different outcomes in every Senedd constituency, nothing is decided and the final seats will come down to tiny margins. Go out and vote, its just a simple X. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mlb5qbaavc23

Published: May 7, 2026 11:53

There are 12 Scottish constituencies with a over 25% of going to different parties, and far more than that which could flip if some of yesterday's oultying polls are right. List seats everywhere can be decided by small margins Go out and vote! …

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml7blkqnpk2t

Published: May 6, 2026 17:56

Lots of conflicting polls today means big changes to our Senedd Nowcast. We have a dead heat in seats and a small Plaid lead in votes. 🌼 PC — 34 ➡️ Ref — 34 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 6 🌱 GP — 6 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml7ai5g5fc2c

Published: May 6, 2026 17:36

Since yesterday we've had polls with the SNP on 32%, 35%, 39%, and 41%. Reform are either comfortably ahead of Labour or well behind. The Greens are between 11 and 17%. Clear as mud. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml6slwmlc224

Published: May 6, 2026 13:28

After a flurry of polls this is our Nowcast with 2 days to go. Our final one will be live tomorrow. 🎗️ SNP — 60 ➡️ Ref — 19 🌹 Lab — 18 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 10 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml6evy2m5s2f

Published: May 6, 2026 09:23

Ok, I've been saying that Scottish MRPs are bad but this is another level. They have massive 63% support for reunification. A full 25% higher than any other poll or nationalist vote shares. This tells us nothing except the importance of writing…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml4tr4l2qs2z

Published: May 5, 2026 18:43

Our projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk / @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @itvnews.bsky.social poll. 🌼 PC — 37 ➡️ Ref — 36 🌹 Lab — 12 🌳 Con — 4 🌱 GP — 4 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3ml2go774wk2x

Published: May 4, 2026 19:44

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for Thursday's Senedd election. ➡️ Ref — 34 🌼 PC — 33 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 9 🌱 GP — 6 🐤 LD — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkzqbis3wc2c

Published: May 4, 2026 13:03

Our Projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll. 🎗️ SNP — 57 ➡️ Ref — 23 🌹 Lab — 15 🐤 LD — 13 🌱 GP — 11 🌳 Con — 10 Play around with your own numbers on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkzmlnpjyc22

Published: May 4, 2026 11:57

I've been very anti-MRP because they've mostly been worse than useless. This one looks to be the first one to do the basics right. We'll see on Friday if its accurate. https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insights/more-in-common-final-holyrood-mrp/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkwsc3sqwk2c

Published: May 3, 2026 09:01

What does winning mean? Plaid Cymru The latest in our Party by Party blogs looks at Plaid's chances, and why becoming first minister looks almost inevitable. https://devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/plaid-cymru/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkwqultlws2n

Published: May 3, 2026 08:36

Our projection on the latest Norstat / @thetimes.com 🎗️ SNP — 58 🌹 Lab — 18 ➡️ Ref — 17 🌳 Con — 13 🐤 LD — 12 🌱 GP — 11 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mku7trq6c22r

Published: May 2, 2026 08:26

If your MRP shows the SNP winning 66 seats, including every Tory seat, but losing Cunninghame South to Reform, then it's not a good MRP. Yet another expensive MRP which is at odds with all the other expensive MRPs.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkrs7gyzvs2m

Published: May 1, 2026 09:16

We're going to be running a live comparison of the various MRPs and projection sites in Scotland & Wales on results day. All this data, including the real results, will be available for download as soon as the final results are in.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkpcjqucf22n

Published: April 30, 2026 09:31

With one week to go before the Senedd election, this is our current Nowcast. ➡️ Ref — 34 🌼 PC — 32 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 8 🌳 Con — 6 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkp674trw22k

Published: April 30, 2026 08:13

One week to go before the 2026 Holyrood election! 🎗️ SNP — 63 ➡️ Ref — 18 🌹 Lab — 17 🌳 Con — 11 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 10 Try it for yourself: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkmu5ls6e22s

Published: April 29, 2026 10:08

Our latest Edinburgh seat projections in the @heraldscotland.bsky.social today. You can get see the odds in every Scottish constituency seat here: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-projects [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkmou3wn5k23

Published: April 29, 2026 08:33

Our projection for next week's Senedd election based on the @survation.bsky.social @aberuni.bsky.social @newyddion.s4c.cymru poll. ➡️ Ref — 38 🌼 PC — 31 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 8 🌳 Con — 4 🐤 LD — 2 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkiqtyu6lk2x

Published: April 27, 2026 18:58

Most English and Welsh councils are not democratically elected. People are either represented by 3 people they voted for or 0. If a far-right despot implemented it elsewhere the UK would condemn it and our media would talk about rigged elections. …

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mki2sp4z4s23

Published: April 27, 2026 12:24

A projection for May's Holyrood election based on the latest @survation.bsky.social / Diffley Partnerships poll: 🎗️ SNP — 60 ➡️ Ref — 20 🌹 Lab — 17 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 10 Try your own numbers at: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkdj3v4sas2y

Published: April 25, 2026 16:56

They would most likely win 4. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkbbzs66c22m

Published: April 24, 2026 19:44

We weight most pollsters equally but FON and a few other get a lower weight because their methods are... questionable We only weight JLP as 0. If you're too incompetent to run something as basic as D'Hondt, I don't trust to do something as complicated as…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkat64jt7k27

Published: April 24, 2026 15:18

Our projection on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for the Senedd election. ➡️ Ref — 33 🌼 PC — 32 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🌹 Lab — 6 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mkaifihpxc23

Published: April 24, 2026 12:06

Our nowcast for the upcoming Senedd elections based on the current polling average: 🌼 PC — 32 ➡️ Ref — 32 🌹 Lab — 14 🌱 GP — 9 🌳 Con — 6 🐤 LD — 3 You can make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk6ms6vylc2q

Published: April 23, 2026 18:19

Our projection on the latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social poll for next month's Senedd election: 🌼 PC — 32 ➡️ Ref — 31 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 9 🌳 Con — 8 🐤 LD — 3 Make you own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk5pzkoick25

Published: April 23, 2026 09:44

Today is a great day for picking the poll that suits the party you like, but as a rule its better to use an average. Our Monte Carlo systems simulates the election 1000 times with different numbers close to the average to give an idea of potential…

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk5n7utrek2e

Published: April 23, 2026 08:54

Our projection for Holyrood election based on the lastest Scot Goes Pop/ @findoutnow.bsky.social poll: 🎗️ SNP — 64 🌱 GP — 21 ➡️ Ref — 16 🌹 Lab — 10 🐤 LD — 10 🌳 Con — 8 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mk5lkvbjp22t

Published: April 23, 2026 08:24

Our projection for May's Holyrood election based on the @ballotbox.scot / @survation.bsky.social poll 🎗️ SNP — 59 ➡️ Ref — 21 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 13 🌱 GP — 11 🐤 LD — 7 Make you own at: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjzpnyf25k2v

Published: April 21, 2026 19:27

Yet more MRP shenanigans. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjzjixk6us2c

Published: April 21, 2026 17:37

A DevolvedElections projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk @itvnews.bsky.social @cardiffuni.bsky.social ➡️ Ref — 36 🌼 PC — 32 🌹 Lab — 13 🌱 GP — 9 🌳 Con — 3 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjysdsz3gk2h

Published: April 21, 2026 10:42

The JLPartners / @telegraph.co.uk poll was also completely wrong in Wales. I ran their numbers and even the 82 seats they did call are wrong. Plaid are under, Labour are over, and it should be 11 Tories and 1 LD, but they have 14 seats uncalled.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjwvw6oadk27

Published: April 20, 2026 16:41

On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations. The real numbers are: SNP: 57 Labour:21 Conservatives: 13 Liberal Democrats: 8 Greens: 11 Reform: 19 This is really basic stuff.

https://bsky.app/profile/devolvedelections.bsky.social/post/3mjw6dcgzq22q

Published: April 20, 2026 09:39

Lets take a simple example, the Greens are only running in 6 seats. Does anything think they'd pick two of their absolute worst places? This MRP thinks so. I don't expect them to win Shetland, but 1%? Come on. [contains quote post or other embedded…