🦜 @climatecasino.net on Bluesky
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Retired professor of mathematics and computer science, casino consultant, author of 4 books: 3 on casino games & 1 poetry book. Now I volunteer, walk a lot & feed local critters.
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https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxojpalgdk2p
Published: October 12, 2026 12:34
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 12, 2026 ~ Last February.
"accurate projections of when global warming will exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C threshold are essential for effective climate policy. Existing estimates place this exceedance in the early…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxojfc5n3s22
Published: October 12, 2026 12:28
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"The current strategy ... is to 'flood the zone with shit.'"
https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/when-it-all-burns-fighting-fire-in-a-transformed-world_jordan-thomas/53699315/item/87751072/
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxogsu2pt22k
Published: October 12, 2026 11:42
If you're interested in better understanding the future of the atmosphere, please give this a try:
atmosphere-column-lab-pro.netlify.app
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxn3etfhms26
Published: October 11, 2026 22:45
My latest on Substack.
"The first truth about climate metaphors is that no metaphor exists that fully encapsulates how fucked everything is. Yes, the doomsday glacier is a ticking time bomb and the oceans are boiling, but what about coral tipping, what…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxm2b3bnuc2k
Published: October 11, 2026 12:52
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 11, 2026 ~ Predicaments have outcomes.
"To be included on the list, threats not only had to potentially cause a high number of lost healthy years, but also to have potential solutions."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxlzc4te3k23
Published: October 11, 2026 12:35
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"There are very severe limits on the extent to which we can predict the future, and that goes also as well for people, who rightly, lean into the likelihood that we're now on a societal collapse trajectory."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxlyirqkes2p
Published: October 11, 2026 12:21
The rate of methane growth continues its decline towards pre-pandemic levels, with the impact of Covid-19 on methane lifespan showing up very clearly. Google it!
Brightspot -- the ESAS/Permafrost methane bomb is not going off ... yet. Stay tuned!
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxjsdv4o6k2z
Published: October 10, 2026 15:25
Tides in Santa Barbara are running 1-2 feet above predicted levels. Why? Thermal expansion due to record ocean temperatures, the Kelvin waves from the current El Nino and tropical storm Rachel.
Interesting times are getting even more interesting.
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxjrvq37ac2c
Published: October 10, 2026 15:17
The more you know.
Yesterday marked the 130th consecutive day of record global sea-surface temperatures, with yesterday's temperature 0.21°C warmer than the previous record for October 9th, set way back in 2023.
The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxjin4ehjc2e
Published: October 10, 2026 12:31
Global surface temperatures can be quite volatile, but it's worth noting that October 6, 7 and 8 each set a new record for the highest global temperature on that day since records began in 1940.
If you like records, there will a lot more record hottest…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxjhlzdgcc2h
Published: October 10, 2026 12:13
Your 'moment of hope porn' for Oct. 10, 2026 ~ if?
"Learning about the complexity of climate emergency can feel overwhelming. While we have climate solutions, implementing those solutions if often muddled with bureaucracy, politics, and diverse public…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxjhb5g4oc23
Published: October 10, 2026 12:07
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"Looking back historically, we see that a breakdown in trade, production, or access to resources often accompanies the end of an empire."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxjfpju5lk2e
Published: October 10, 2026 11:39
The long-term rate of CO2 growth is currently at a record 24.35 ppm per decade.
Net-zero by 2050? 2070? Ain't gonna' happen. Well, it might. But for another reason.
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxhbdjisjc2w
Published: October 9, 2026 15:15
For the record ...
[contains quote post or other embedded content]
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxgzhwrdds2w
Published: October 9, 2026 12:55
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 9, 2026 ~ If? Could?
"If AI agents escape super-secure environments to release dangerous toxins, or destroy critical water, electricity, transportation, or health infrastructure, AI companies... could be on the hook"
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxgyevhrf22b
Published: October 9, 2026 12:35
Breaking News!
Code Yikes!
As of Oct. 8, Antarctic sea-ice extent is more than 4.5 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 daily mean, ranking second lowest for the day behind Oct. 8, 2023.
Data: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxgxgywr422k
Published: October 9, 2026 12:18
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"We grieve for when we could enjoy a beautiful landscape and not wonder about the suffering and loss of its wildlife."
https://jembendell.com/2026/10/04/what-we-grieve-incanting-50-shades-of-grief/
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxgwulyd622w
Published: October 9, 2026 12:08
The more you know ...
Your Friday water-cooler update, because even if you know all the facts, they still don' t care:
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxezmzfuyc2a
Published: October 8, 2026 17:52
According to the Climate 8-Ball, there is a 16% chance of doom by 2030, a 51% chance of doom by 2050 and an 87% chance of doom by 2100. The most likely source of doom is AI.
The Climate 8-Ball informed me that it is not answering any questions about this…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxeqv6no3k2h
Published: October 8, 2026 15:16
As of October 7, the preliminary Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature once again rose above 30.0°C.
Below is a graph showing a timeline for the Niño 3.4 SST for every day from January 1, 1982 through yesterday.
The Climate 8-Ball is busy calculating…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxejvrf4i22e
Published: October 8, 2026 13:11
The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on a peak windspeed for hurricane Isaias of 110 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/080856.shtml
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxef7cmfdc26
Published: October 8, 2026 11:47
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"A wait-and-see approach would likely commit the world to even faster climate change that would take centuries to reverse--extending the unplanned and unregulated experiment with the atmosphere that is already underway."…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxeenfjljs2h
Published: October 8, 2026 11:37
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 8, 2026 ~ Moloch!
"A natural rainforest shouldn’t burn. It’s too wet. So even the fact that we create and see these fires that spread into the Amazon is already some kind of tipping point."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxedj4eswk2b
Published: October 8, 2026 11:16
The latest CFSv2 plume for El Niño as of October 7th shows that this El Niño has about a 90% chance to persist into May, 2027
And I don't understand how any model run could show less than 3.4°C for November, unless some magic unicorn comes along.
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxbvnjv3ik2w
Published: October 7, 2026 12:03
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 7, 2026 ~ Techno-optimists
"are 23% less likely to sign petitions or take part in protests than peers who doubt that technology is the answer. They are also 18% less likely to make high-impact lifestyle changes ..."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mxbv42ygvk2e
Published: October 7, 2026 11:53
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"we are trading the health of our world's ecosystems for the right to upgrade our smartphone every year ... it is an insane situation, and it can't go on."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx7ppgo6ds2f
Published: October 6, 2026 15:11
Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!
For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th.
The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline.
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx7old2du22u
Published: October 6, 2026 14:51
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: Getting closer.
"It's strange to live through these hot days, watching our leaders fail us and the media barely mention what's happening. Lately, newspapers offer mere hints that something is amiss on our planet."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx7e6f6cjc2s
Published: October 6, 2026 11:45
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 6, 2026 ~ Edible hat alert!
"I'm on the record saying I'll eat my hat if this doesn't materialize, which again, stay tuned on that one."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41XT3C4ajhM
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx7cuicipk2n
Published: October 6, 2026 11:21
As the reflectivity (albedo) of Earth continues to set new record lows, more of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth system, increasing the amount of energy available to heat the oceans, atmosphere, and land, and to melt ice.
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx7bvvzgyk26
Published: October 6, 2026 11:04
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"... maybe the vast majority of humans are truly doomed. While it's a fringe position, we've even heard some of the left urging us to welcome that end, to give the planet a chance to recover."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx5krj5le22f
Published: October 5, 2026 18:38
Here is my talk last week to the Fallbrook Climate Action Team. It's about 30 minutes, followed by Q&A.
https://youtu.be/dhDmOt7B_v8?si=SAAFm1AnA1CJC1Go&t=81
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx4xwiojg22j
Published: October 5, 2026 13:00
Breaking News!
The latest ECMWF forecast for October continues to show the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature peaking around 4.0°C above the 1991-2020 average in December, with a strong El Niño lasting into Spring.
The current Nino 3.4 anomaly is 3.3°C.
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx4xhj7nqc2a
Published: October 5, 2026 12:52
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 5, 2026 ~ That's why.
"The hosts of the next major United Nations climate conference, Turkey and Australia, are facing criticism for being partners in a coal supply chain while remaining near silent on the need for a global…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx4wl5w3jc2t
Published: October 5, 2026 12:36
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"Human communities and human activities in general are ecophagic: they devour the ecosystem. Human communities and activities generate and excrete toxic wastes and oncometabolites as do malignant neoplasms."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx3jbeyqtk2q
Published: October 4, 2026 23:05
Fortunately, 'pneumonic plague' was on my bingo card for 2026.
"Patients with pneumonic plague develop fever, headache, weakness and and a rapidly developing pneumonia with shortness of breath, chest pain, cough, and sometimes bloody or watery mucous..."
…
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx3bv62x522i
Published: October 4, 2026 20:53
I have tickets to go hear opera outside in the park starting in about an hour. It's in an area without shade. I'm reconsidering.
A moment ago ...
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mx2goxe6vs2v
Published: October 4, 2026 12:47
our 'moment of doom' for Oct. 4, 2026 ~ Fountain alert!
"But experts say the severity and duration of this year’s fall heatwave is extreme, and likely to become more common in the future as the climate crisis nudges global temperatures higher."
…