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Ancient & military historian specializing in the Roman economy and military. PhD from UNC History. More impressive credential is that I have beaten both Dark Souls and Elden Ring. Blogs at acoup.blog

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Posts: 98

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https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh6kbnqfkk2o

Published: March 16, 2026 13:18

Yeah, so I realize that strategy is difficult and very advanced and we have to be mysterious like the thunderbolt but generally speaking one normally coordinates with allies BEFORE STARTING THE WAR. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh5adgaw7s2g

Published: March 16, 2026 00:48

As an aside, I find it striking that in all of the 'we need other navies to help us' the actual, like, Gulf state navies don't get mentioned. Very little in the way of meaningful escort capability for tankers, but a lot of corvettes and patrol ships that…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh5a2ec6cc2g

Published: March 16, 2026 00:43

Oh neat, so in a few years when they hold the Taiwan strait open for an invasion and we ask where they learned that from, they can shout back 'from you, Dad!' Like, there are just a lot of reasons that I would imagine the USN does not want to be operating…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh4hvpe2hc2u

Published: March 15, 2026 17:31

I love this joke. You love this joke. We all do. It is hilarious. Buuuuuut...you know we're about to discuss Roman calendars, right? And that this joke isn't quite right? SO! Let's talk about Roman calendars and why the 'number months' (Sept-Dec) do…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh4drqb36s2f

Published: March 15, 2026 16:17

This isn't kidding, by the way, the this has been going on The Other Place for two days now, ever since Duplessis' "Maybe educating officers is good actually" article. It is astounding. Whisky glass with an AK is now woke. 🤷‍♂️ [contains quote post or…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh42tax4222r

Published: March 15, 2026 13:37

It is really striking the sort of intellectual cowardice that leads to this end, which does represent a meaningful break from the Reagan-GOP tradition. Reaganism assumed the public could be persuaded that GOP aims were good and would have good results. …

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mh22itpmdk2u

Published: March 14, 2026 18:25

This is true if you are engaging with reality but the decision-makers are not. The answer will be that woke officers trained by the woke war colleges weren't willing to bomb enough Iranian girl's schools to force them to surrender because woke. It is not…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgzwrhnfec2u

Published: March 14, 2026 17:19

In all seriousness, sincerely concerned for how Hegseth is going to mess up PME now that his gin-soaked gaze has turned upon it. Imposing political litmus tests on PME instructors - the likely plan - will meaningfully damage the institutions and thus US…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgyku7yfi22l

Published: March 14, 2026 04:13

This is a good question to address, actually. There's often an intuitive assumption that when a country runs out of money, its war effort will grind to a halt. That's how households and (sometimes) companies work. But those assumptions are really…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgy3hl4kw22m

Published: March 13, 2026 23:37

I get the logic of doing this to apply pressure because oyu are frustrated with the asymmetry of Iran selling oil when no one else can but, uh...now they have no reason *not* to mine the strait. So assuming they don't have an immediate nervous breakdown…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgxnnaqjuc2r

Published: March 13, 2026 19:30

This is a joke, but a lot of the copium on The Other Place right now is to insist that Iran is running out of small boats, mines, cheap drones or missiles any moment now. Or indeed that they have run out in the time between now and whatever strike they did…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgxbwhw2lk2y

Published: March 13, 2026 16:00

I will say one thing: nothing demonstrates the value of military history, the staff and war colleges, and reading military theory like watching a war conducted by a bunch of guys who skipped all of that in favor of 'manliness' and push-ups. [contains…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgxbi5rc2k2p

Published: March 13, 2026 15:52

Can we get live footage of the Strategy Cheese as this stupid debacle absorbs even more resources from INDOPACOM? For as hard as that guy pushed to get this administration so he could get some small shred of power, I really do hope he is living in a hell…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgx7efj53k27

Published: March 13, 2026 15:14

It really is remarkable to see this doofus proudly announcing that he is committing basic strategic errors like confusing activity with accomplishment, losing sight of strategic objectives, just day after day. [contains quote post or other embedded…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgx6d3tj5222

Published: March 13, 2026 14:56

I struggle to communicate my fury about the easing of sanctions on Russia's oil as a result of the Iran war. Unlike basically anything suggested as an objective in this fool war, containing Russia's ability to brutalize and dominate Eastern Europe…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgw6npwcjc2b

Published: March 13, 2026 05:29

As an aside, re-reading this almost a year later, sometimes I am pleased by my own turns of phrase - you will, I hope, permit me a bit of vanity here - and I rather like "the grand magic of Doing the Right Thing." In the end, that is what every depends…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgw5dnp7bc24

Published: March 13, 2026 05:06

Never been a big Who fan, but the fact that huge portions of it are lost is a tragedy and the recovery of any episodes (these seem to be important ones!) is a triumph for the preservation of art generally and sci-fi in particular. So significant and…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgv24mgpac2e

Published: March 12, 2026 18:35

It seems worth noting here that compared to the Houth Red Sea crisis, the Iranians are doing more damage more rapidly here. 21 incidents in 9 days (2.3 per day) in the Gulf compared to 90 incidents in the first year (1 per ~4 days) in the Red Sea. More…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mguz7oya5k2e

Published: March 12, 2026 18:19

Nioh 3 is neat and I like that it takes some interesting design swings. The big one is to recognize the player-divide between block-first and dodge-first and basically build a second stance system around that. And it works pretty well. Being able to…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mguwrz5qts2e

Published: March 12, 2026 17:36

What ambushed people, of course, were adjustable rate mortgages with 'teaser' rates. Those too have to be disclosed in the paperwork and generally were, but 'loan officers' (the guy you talk to at the bank to get a mortgage) are in sales, so they're going…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgujcdkgxk2u

Published: March 12, 2026 13:34

I realize they have to pick a number, but the strategic petroleum reserve drawdown is spaced over 120 days, so maybe also model something like a 90-day (+30 recovery) disruption at the very least? Also, their 'very low flows' dots are still above the…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgthbglsn22s

Published: March 12, 2026 03:25

I love how my printer (it's an Epson) informs me when one cartridge runs out of ink that I can keep printing in black and white immediately before presenting me with only two options: replace ink, cancel print. This does not change if I select B&W…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgt4zkm6qc2y

Published: March 12, 2026 00:22

So I guess place your (non-monetary, I dislike gambling) bets as to what the administration's hilarious, obvious lie tomorrow morning will be to calm markets after everyone marinates in footage of a tanker wildly on fire in the gulf for a few hours.

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgt2tgwbjs2v

Published: March 11, 2026 23:43

So Hormuz generally saw 20m barrels per day, so the combined release of 400m by the IEA and 172 from the US SPR buys them just about a month or so, right? Except the oil in the reserves probably can't come out at 20m per day, so an incomplete solution for…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgson4jljc2s

Published: March 11, 2026 20:04

This seems accurate. What needed to happen was a president that cared enough to have a SecNav who was focused on procurement and a budget that provided the space for it. And that did not happen and now we are here. But, like, Trump is a lot of why that…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgsemiufxk2a

Published: March 11, 2026 17:05

The splitscreen between "I think they should use the strait" and pictures of the Mayuree Naree Bangkok burning in the strait on the same day is absurdly on point. Trump has, at last, it seems, found a problem that lying and marketing cannot solve. …

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgquzsguk22v

Published: March 11, 2026 02:54

Some major ones: The Strait of Malacca joining the Pacific and Indian Oceans, the busiest sea passage on Earth. The Bab-el-Mandeb at the southern end of the Red Sea (this is what the Houthis blocked). The Bosphorous and Dardanelles connecting the Med with…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgq4p2gloc23

Published: March 10, 2026 19:38

So all I've seen is reporting that the US thinks Iran might be preparing to mine the strait or something like that, rather than that they have actually *begun* but if they've begun mining the strait, um... crapbaskets? [contains quote post or other…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgoa5wovf227

Published: March 10, 2026 01:35

But also if you are the Iranian regime and you survive this, you obviously sprint to a nuclear weapon, right? Like, flat out dead sprint, as fast as you can, trying to get there before Netanyahu gets Uncle Sam to ambush you in a dark alley again. That…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgnww3idg22v

Published: March 9, 2026 22:49

Ok, so I know I did some bluesky threads on why the Great Man Theory of history is basically bullshit...but did I never actually do a blog post on this? I *swear* I wrote Fireside on this, but I cannot find it. If not, desideratum, I suppose.

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgnp6s7bbc2y

Published: March 9, 2026 20:31

I think this is true but also in a strategic sense, pretty clearly an Iranian victory: we threw everything at them and proved we could not dislodge them. The question will be if the administration can succeed at spinning it as a success, rather than the…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgnm3s4dc22b

Published: March 9, 2026 19:36

Indeed, assuming this represents current policy, it is an open admission that the regime change effort has failed, de-nuclearization is likewise impossible or impractical and the only objective that remains is to extricate from a costly failure. [contains…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgnh2vfstc2u

Published: March 9, 2026 18:06

So crucially it isn't sailors or captains, specifically. I've seen conservative hacks calling for ship captains to have courage and that misses the point. It is insurance. The problem is getting the ship insured. Sure you could pay some sailors to take…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgnfqp2tu22n

Published: March 9, 2026 17:42

I will never forgive EA for shoveling Criterion into the Battlefield-Mines rather than letting them keep making Burnout games. 'Hey, Burnout Paradise was a huge success, so we're going to, uh, never let you make another one again." Just crazy, honestly. …

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgn76cosq22o

Published: March 9, 2026 15:44

For 2024, the *household* income quintiles were Top: 175k+ 2nd: 105-175k 3rd: 65k-105k 4th: 34.5k-65k Lowest: 0-34.5k Obviously somewhat subjective to living area, but most upper-income folks have very little sense of where they sit. [contains quote post…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgn372e6ek25

Published: March 9, 2026 14:33

Seems like 'refuse to panic' won out. Markets are down and oil up, but not massively so. To go by sentiment on The Other Place, there's still a lot of 'trust the plan' - assuming after so much bombing Iran will have to give up. Just a few more bombs and…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mglszldzas2a

Published: March 9, 2026 02:34

So, for no particular reason, seems like it might be a good time to link this video https://youtu.be/wcCLeZs7zb8?si=sg4-HgulMwVpuyL0 on how to handle a recession, which contains a lot of the knowledge I was told as the child of bankers on how to handle a…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mglrciilac23

Published: March 9, 2026 02:03

So presumably when markets open in the the morning, I guess the question is if they refuse to panic, in which case other markets will probably settle down for at least a little longer, or if they finally give in and have their own freakout, in which case…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mglleka7lk2f

Published: March 9, 2026 00:17

So we're nine days into the Iran War and so far we've managed to push the price of oil to $108 a barrel and replace the dangerous hardliner Supreme Leader Khamenei with the even more hardline...::checks notes:: ::double checks notes:: Supreme Leader…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgl3ke5nm22u

Published: March 8, 2026 19:34

I suspect the solution they'll try to move to is a combination of: 1) The USN runs escort on oil and LNG ships and also 2) Uncle Sam underwrites - illegally, by executive action, because that's how we do things - the insurance cost to offset the ships that…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgl2o2ud2c2u

Published: March 8, 2026 19:18

I think this is perhaps a likely result but also one that will likely require either a continued military operation at enormous expense or a pretty humiliating public capitulation to letting the Iranian regime survive and either way the public will be…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgkwoi3hes2a

Published: March 8, 2026 18:07

That is a concentrated blast of foolishness (no surprise, given the source), but at the core of it is the failure to realize that just because your opponent is losing in war does not mean that you are winning and it certainly doesn't mean that you will…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgkwhjharc2a

Published: March 8, 2026 18:03

I am going to be extremely upset if the major outcome of this dumb war against Iran is to collapse the one fragile mostly-kinda-democracy (with big, significant problems, to be clear) we managed to create in the Middle East. [contains quote post or other…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgkspt3lsc22

Published: March 8, 2026 16:56

This seems to me to be a recurrent problem in game design, even in games that limit PvP, because folks say they *want* competitive play experiences (or mechanics that would lead to it) but actually playing in that context is generally exhausting and unfun…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgjmt4xbes2c

Published: March 8, 2026 05:38

I think this is probably both factually true and yet practically false. On the one hand, historians strongly prejudiced against mil-hist are rare. On the other hand, even a fairly small percentage of such historians is enough to massively reduce the job…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgjibph3wc2m

Published: March 8, 2026 04:17

Number transcription errors are one of the most common kinds of errors in manuscript traditions for similar reasons - really easy error to make even copying within a single language, much less between two languages. [contains quote post or other embedded…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgjhu3shdk2m

Published: March 8, 2026 04:09

It isn't really surprising, but such a clearly unplanned and under-explained war of choice really does expose which commentators are actually engaging their brains of national security and which succumb instantly to "hurt the BadGuy instincts."

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgj2ufmjtk2q

Published: March 8, 2026 00:17

I'm fascinated by the common failure of strategic mirroring where folks assume that because the USA built a global alliance of democracies after WW, that the autocracies must also function in a vast alliance with unified leadership. Because they don't!…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgg7n7joik25

Published: March 6, 2026 21:04

So is where I feel the need to remind folks that the selective service system still exists. But in practice, yeah. Super-lazy back-of-the-envelope, holding all of Iran might require c. 600,000 ground troops. (~3x our max Iraq deployment). But you also…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgfnraiykc2s

Published: March 6, 2026 15:44

Incredible to watch Hegseth just faceplanting into the Absolute Destruction acceleration of violence with his whole face. Utterly convinced that you lose wars if you don't war crimes hard enough and entirely unprepared for any other theory of victory or…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgef4h57ls2s

Published: March 6, 2026 03:37

So there are a few ships making the Hormuz run, but in tiny numbers and not big ones. By contrast, you can see the huge cloud of ships waiting outside the strait on either side. Until there are more ships moving in the strait than sitting outside, the…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgdscoxpbs2t

Published: March 5, 2026 22:00

Folks will be - legitimately - furious with the Ds that voted no (leadership whipped hard for yes), but I think it is worth looking on the other hand: 98% of House Democrats (and 1% of House Republicans) just voted to try to block the president from waging…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgdpqw3ql22v

Published: March 5, 2026 21:14

This is brutal and dispiriting but also more of the same as humanities programs close under sustained attack. Of course I think we need to work harder to bring our field to the public, to build the kind of support which sustains public funding of our…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgbq7qu3lk2j

Published: March 5, 2026 02:17

So just to be clear: at the same time that we are running a roughly $1.8trillion deficit, the government is going to have to pay back something like $200bn in tariffs. And this was the moment that they figured it was a great time to burn a billion dollars…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgbpdprib22j

Published: March 5, 2026 02:02

None of these, I actually swear by uniball rollers. Buy a box each of red/black/blue every semester or two. They've got a uniball vision in there, which is mostly the same, but the roller writes the same, only comes in the correct thickness (0.5mm) and…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgbm2cnl4c2z

Published: March 5, 2026 01:03

I find the 'how many weeks will the war go?' questions odd. The war is going to continue until Iran no longer has the capacity to block shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz or chooses to stop doing so. Given the economic impact of strait closure, it…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgbhxerx6s2v

Published: March 4, 2026 23:50

Not sure in what sense @sodrock.bsky.social thought it was insane, but to me it is striking that it is as low as 40% for a strike against a long-term enemy and a brutal regime, which at least appears to be 'going well' if you are paying only limited…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgb7qwden222

Published: March 4, 2026 21:23

That can't be right, I was assured the entire Iranian nuclear program was totally and utterly obliterated just last year. It's almost enough to make you think these senile elderly old man here thinks that Our Great President Donald Trump is a liar. …

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgb3nqj3cc2l

Published: March 4, 2026 20:09

That last paragraph is hilarious because Dubai -> Beirut -> Tel Aviv -> Gaza city -> Cairo, uh, hey chief you might have missed a step or two. You know, the one where you transit through the UAE through Saudi Arabia into Kuwait into Iraq past Baghdad to…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgaod4fgnk2v

Published: March 4, 2026 16:11

One of the things I find remarkable about this era in politics is how extreme the benefit of the doubt the markets give the Trump administration. Oil is $74.25 as I write this and while that's elevated from pre-war, it obviously reflects traders who think…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mgamnpgag227

Published: March 4, 2026 15:41

This is a good piece, but I am struck by how he explains that Trump's brazenness has taken every 'congress must authorize' and turned it into 'congress needs a super-majority to stop.' And I think the solution, to be frank, is in 2029 to put…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg6r5lnsgs2n

Published: March 3, 2026 21:56

Assuming this is accurate, one assumes they'll try to blow this guy up next, but the swiftness of the transition is another strong indicator that the Venezuela-style decapitation plan is going to be really damn challenging in Iran where the regime is…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg6kin7jbk25

Published: March 3, 2026 19:57

This is a thing that can work if the Iranians are bluffing about closing the strait. But the moment it turns out they're not bluffing and they dump a silkworm into an oil tanker, I do not see these assurances doing a whole lot. [contains quote post or…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg4t6p26u22e

Published: March 3, 2026 03:27

I think there's a version of this thinking that makes sense from an Israeli perspective. Israel is, I imagine, relatively untroubled by Gulf state refining or the Strait of Hormuz. For the United States, which does care about these things and is less…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg4jk2jr2c2h

Published: March 3, 2026 00:35

So what you are saying is that you let your *junior* security partner back you into a major regional war *again* because your are so feckless and weak that you couldn't tell them that the risk to American interests was too severe to permit their (optional,…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg44zsdzu22d

Published: March 2, 2026 20:51

Amusing to watch my social media splitscreen between the Iran takes here (DOOM! All outcomes are bad!) and the Iran takes on The Bad Place ("Here is my 1,100 word tweet on why this will all work out neatly in the end") and it sure does seem like Bluesky…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg3tivpmy22l

Published: March 2, 2026 18:00

So Robert Pape had a good piece on his substack yesterday (https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/smart-bomb-trap-confirmed-decapitation) on the potential escalation trap created by the Iran strikes and responses. I find myself wondering what path that…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg3mwjn6ik2d

Published: March 2, 2026 16:03

Pete Hegseth really is an astounding idiot who truly does seem to believe that the way to win wars is just to war crime harder than the other guy. Just an endless 'taking the gloves off' until your hands are reduced to bloody stumps because it turns out…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mg2cxmp5gk2l

Published: March 2, 2026 03:32

This was Ike as President (his first major speech, in fact), but just gonna say: Eisenhower not beating the allegations of being the United States' greatest general on this one. Fitting that we got one verifiable Military Genius and he was the Divine…

https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mfyzdddmv22a

Published: March 1, 2026 15:07

I find I am honestly unsure what the long term implications are of the United States demonstrating twice in three months that its new preferred way of war is to engage in bolt-from-the-blue decapitation strikes with no obvious follow-up plan. My instinct…