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Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author. https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/ http://brightlinewatch.org

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Posts: 42

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Published: September 6, 2024 22:32

What democracy-centric coverage looks like - WITF on Trump's Hannity "town hall" in Harrisburg, PA https://www.witf.org/2024/09/06/donald-trump-appeals-to-base-using-anti-immigrant-messaging-in-harrisburg-visit/ (disclosure: I'm quoted) Compare with this,…

Published: September 6, 2024 14:57

Can Pollution Markets Work in Developing Countries? Experimental Evidence from India https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/campuspress.yale.edu/dist/7/2986/files/2024/07/ets_paper-25.pdf "The pollution market therefore has mortality benefits that exceed costs by…

Published: September 5, 2024 19:24

At what point are people going to stop gossiping about their high-profile employers with online dates? This is the entire P****** V****** playbook https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41134789/commanders-fire-vp-comments-players-jones-goodell

Published: September 5, 2024 15:10

New 🚨 The Narrow Reach of Targeted Corrections: No Impact on Broader Beliefs About Election Integrity 🚨 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-024-09968-0 The dangers of fact-check Whac-A-Mole: debunking false claims about the 2022 AZ election…

Published: September 5, 2024 14:20

The election denial machinery is cranking up again but focused on non-citizen voting (vanishingly rare) - total nonsense and very dangerous to democracy https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/us/politics/immigrant-noncitizen-voting-republicans.html

Published: September 4, 2024 15:33

Easy to say now, but back in 1999, just 31% of Democrats said honesty is the most important quality in a president (vs. favoring good policies or having strong qualities of leadership) versus 46% among Republicans. Partisanship is a hell of a drug. …

Published: September 4, 2024 13:28

Most people aren't in online echo chambers. Evidence of social media harms is far less conclusive than people think. Algorithms aren't the primary reason people see potentially harmful content online. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07417-w …

Published: September 4, 2024 12:58

Carlson and Musk continue to speedrun the red-pill trajectory to full white supremacism Tucker Carlson Starstruck By Historian Who Calls Churchill, Not Hitler, the ‘Chief Villain’ of WW2 and Casts Holocaust as Accident…

Published: September 4, 2024 00:55

The idea that Grimmer, Knox & Westwood "can't model" is hilarious. And Silver's "model" is a black box. Who knows what's going on in there? How can we evaluate it? At same time, "we don't have a well-calibrated model of who wins" != there is no info in…

Published: September 3, 2024 13:08

For folks going to APSA - friends don't let friends use the horrible default panel format. Divide the time equally and open the floor discussion *after each talk*. Works SO much better as long as the chair enforces time limits. cyrussamii.com?p=1806

Published: September 3, 2024 12:12

Deft - a model for how to acknowledge asymmetry while covering misinformation among Democrats: "America’s right flank remains the chief purveyor of misinformation, but this summer’s political tumult created ideal conditions for falsehoods to spread among…

Published: September 2, 2024 19:20

Me to NPR last week: "One thing AI, in particular, is good at doing is taking ideas or claims being made in text and turning them into metaphorical representations.... It's chum for the folks who....tend to have slanted information diets." …

Published: September 2, 2024 17:12

"Tying federal transportation spending to building activity may be the best way to induce change" in housing supply - need strong incentives from higher levels of government that are targeted at outcomes (units built), not processes or rules that can be…

Published: September 2, 2024 17:08

Friends don't let friends count up significance findings https://matthewbjane.com/blog-posts/blog-post-6.html https://matthewbjane.com/blog-posts/blog-post-7.html Cochrane: "Synthesis methods that involve vote counting based on statistical significance…

Published: September 2, 2024 15:13

Liberals for the last four decades: It is an absurd oversimplification to say the media are trying to help Democrats get elected. Liberals now (at least here): The NYT and WP are trying to get Donald Trump elected! Unsubscribe! Plenty of flawed…

Published: August 31, 2024 23:55

"up to 1/3 of Americans believe accusations of satanic cult abuse, government sex trafficking, and an 'agenda' to 'groom' children into gay or trans lifestyles" - correlated w/favorable views of Trump/Putin, acceptance of political violence, dark triad…