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I do Miami things: study hurricanes🌀, grow orchids 🌸, and complain about the humidity 🥵. Husband and dog dad. 🏳️‍🌈 https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/

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Site URL: bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social

Feed URL: bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pww7y3jqm3lc5ugvqdbhnzej/rss

Posts: 31

Followers: 1

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l6awfwdr6j2i

Published: October 11, 2024 17:48

Tropical Storm Leslie is still out there for a little bit longer, but here's what the season track map looks like through today. In terms of ACE, Beryl still dominates the season, followed by Kirk and Milton which are nearly tied. 50 days left in…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l66pnag2i222

Published: October 10, 2024 20:41

#Milton is now an extratropical cyclone, and #Leslie is back down to tropical storm intensity, so ACE is accruing *much* slower now compared to recent days. But it's at 134% of average for the date, which also puts it in the top 9% of values for the date.…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l664c4k5qv2b

Published: October 10, 2024 14:55

Why monster hurricanes like #Milton are happening in the Gulf. It’s not geoengineering. - with @kbtxshel.bsky.social and @weathergoddess.bsky.social https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/climate-change/article293766444.ece

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l65wbt5kvo2s

Published: October 10, 2024 13:08

Thursday morning: #Milton will soon transition to an extratropical cyclone, so the track & intensity verification period is nearing an end. Here's a preliminary look at NHC's forecasts and errors for the storm. Amazing track forecasts for the landfall…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l63jon6xx32f

Published: October 9, 2024 14:17

Here is the history of NHC track and intensity forecasts for #Milton through Wednesday morning. The operational observed values are shown by the thick black dots/line. For track, NHC forecasts have consistently been too far north. For intensity, nothing…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l632uh6ldk2s

Published: October 9, 2024 09:52

#Milton is still a Category 5 hurricane as of Wed 5am. Don't worry about fluctuations in intensity or track, and definitely don't think that being outside the cone is safe (that's never the case). TS winds will arrive Wed afternoon and then a major…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5yzx3kft32o

Published: October 8, 2024 14:30

Right before landfall, #Milton 's inner core will pass over some of the warmest water of its entire journey: 30-31°C (86-88°F), which is 2-3°C (3.5-5.5) warmer than average for this time of year. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5x7jcuehj2h

Published: October 7, 2024 21:04

The storm surge forecasts for the Tampa area and surrounding coastline are catastrophically high, with 10-15 feet possible in the central part of the peninsula. Do not hesitate any longer to evacuate if told to. #Milton #Florida…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5vxsw53ku2a

Published: October 7, 2024 09:14

MONDAY 5AM: Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches are now up for the western half of the Florida peninsula. More will be added (and upgraded to warnings) with every advisory, so stay tuned to the NHC website. You only have today and tomorrow…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5ubnzwwmb26

Published: October 6, 2024 17:05

Preparations should be completed by the time tropical storm conditions arrive, which for #Milton looks like early Wednesday morning along much of the #Florida peninsula. https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2024/10/dire-days-ahead-for-florida-as-milton.html

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5smpwzpwa2j

Published: October 6, 2024 01:17

This model forecast of #Milton 's surface wind speeds is an excellent example of a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. You will find significantly weaker winds than Cat3 on land, but the category rating is just the peak sustained wind anywhere in the storm…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5s7h735oa2w

Published: October 5, 2024 21:20

#Milton is located in the western Gulf and is forecast to start moving east tomorrow. Then, fairly low wind shear and exceptionally warm water should allow the storm to intensify quickly before reaching #Florida on Wednesday, perhaps as a major hurricane.…

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3l5rejyeil226

Published: October 5, 2024 13:18

Bumping this back up... the timing is slower, but a tropical storm or hurricane landfall in #Florida is looking much more likely on Wednesday-ish this week. Be prepared. Next name is #Milton. #92L [contains quote post or other embedded content]