🦜 @ballotbox.scot on Bluesky
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Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.
Donate; http://liberapay.com/ballotboxscot
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https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lzbkyri4gs23
Published: September 20, 2025 14:17
Trying something a little new to expand the BBS reach over the run up to the election, for those over on Instagram...
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DO06fL3iCXn/?igsh=aDB2dnViajhqNGI=
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lz6sl7pcg22i
Published: September 19, 2025 11:54
Stirling East by-election set for the 30th of October; given the SNP won a December by-election here with an advantage over Labour of around 7% after transfers, and things have only gotten worse for Labour since, you'd have to assume the money's on another…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lz4lh6gnuc2n
Published: September 18, 2025 14:41
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lz2hgv3uek2w
Published: September 17, 2025 18:24
Oh hells bells I had a typo in the URL for this piece so I fixed that and then accidentally went two posts deep into deleting because my brain shut down, anyway here's a preview of Ayr North, be glad I wrote 90% of this pre-holiday because post is poorly…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyui3g5b322p
Published: September 15, 2025 09:20
Počkajte, to tiež nie je škótsky parlament! (Not actually going in this one...)
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyq53n52q225
Published: September 13, 2025 15:52
Not quite an election but sad to report Team Edinburgh placed 18 out of 25 at the World Tram Driver Championships đź« Thoroughly gubbed, especially by the host (they have the advantage mind, but also it was very sweet how exciting that was for the crowd)
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyngtii7ek2b
Published: September 12, 2025 14:09
Einen moment, bitte! Das is nicht das Schottische Parlament!
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyiohmn3qk2x
Published: September 10, 2025 16:42
I know I keep saying we need more Scottish polling but nobody is allowed to publish any for the next week as I won't be in the country
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lydvo7lgkk27
Published: September 8, 2025 19:08
Long-time followers of Ballot Box Scotland may be familiar with my preferred "Scandinavian" voting system; Norway is the closest to what I advocate adopting in Scotland (and the UK), so why not follow their elections tonight?…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyd4v46dvs2j
Published: September 8, 2025 11:44
I haven't been posting about every retirement announcement but with Kevin Stewart (SNP, Aberdeen Central) also today announcing he's standing down next year due to ill health, we're now up to a remarkable 59% minimum turnover of MSPs in the North East,…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyb4ewpz272e
Published: September 7, 2025 16:30
New Campaign-Period(ish) projection just dropped on the Holyrood Hub page!
Holyrood Projection as of 1st of September (vs 2021 on new boundaries):
SNP ~ 61 (-2)
Lab ~ 18 (-3)
RUK ~ 18 (+18)
Con ~ 11 (-20)
Grn ~ 11 (+1)
LD ~ 10 (+6)
Full details here:…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lyaqxvgjy22l
Published: September 7, 2025 13:06
A brief section in this piece about the perils of thinking yourself very clever in telling your opponent, at the high point of the parliamentary week, they're headed for the door when your recent polling has been weak and a further bad poll could drop at…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3ly6lwshsoi2x
Published: September 6, 2025 16:30
Poll Analysis:Â More in Common 21st of August - 1st of September 2025
Holyrood Seat Projection:
SNP ~ 63
Labour ~ 17
Reform UK ~ 17
Lib Dem ~ 15
Conservative ~ 11
Green ~ 6
Independence:
No ~ 52%
Yes ~ 48%
https://ballotbox.scot/common-september-2025/
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3ly3rsrf4kc2t
Published: September 5, 2025 13:37
Ian Murray (MP for Edinburgh South) out as Secretary of State for Scotland; wonder if we'll see any Scottish MPs taking up cabinet posts outside that one after this reshuffle?
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3ly3pxwgox22t
Published: September 5, 2025 13:04
The Regional Preview series ahead of next year's election is now complete - at least in terms of the descriptions and expectations for each region and constituency! Candidates will be added as and when they are available (focus will be on the big parties…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxzz3aoo3k2m
Published: September 4, 2025 20:42
Only the best analysis, from experience, on Ballot Box dot Scot
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxz63n4ons2p
Published: September 4, 2025 12:39
Some bizarre figures in here (Lib Dem figure wild, but then, Ipsos had a wild Green figure, so pick your small party house effect), but regardless, Holyrood's voting system is not holding up well; the "correct" proportional AMS outcome should be:
SNP ~ 46…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxz5x5wqlk2p
Published: September 4, 2025 12:36
New Scottish Parliament poll, More in Common ?? Aug/Sep (vs 2021 Election (first MIC Holyrood)):
List:
SNP ~ 32% (-8)
Lab ~ 16% (-2)
RUK ~ 16% (+16)
LD ~ 14% (+9)
Con ~ 12% (-11)
Grn ~ 8% (nc)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 37% (-11)
Lab ~ 17% (-5)
RUK ~ 16% (+16)…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxx2krxjd52e
Published: September 3, 2025 16:31
SP26: West Scotland Region Preview
Sure, the SNP vs Labour contests will be most important here, but Eastwood could really piss on Russell Findlay's chips and this is also one of the best bets for Lib Dem recovery anywhere in the country.…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxu3al5fg22y
Published: September 2, 2025 12:05
We are now up to a total of 38 explicitly retiring MSPs and 3 that I would consider effectively deselected; realistically the most recent retirement strikes me as "was on road to being knocked out via deselection so jumped before being pushed" but such is…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxpxww2qf22c
Published: August 31, 2025 20:55
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election, following this deeply unsavoury situation, due up on the 6th of November. A narrow SNP lead over Labour of about 5.5% after transfers in 2022, so I'd put this in tossup territory at the moment.
[contains…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxpwpvv2ls2c
Published: August 31, 2025 20:33
Ayr North by-election set for the 16th of October. Ayr as a town is considered quite Conservative leaning, but not so in this ward. SNP beat Labour by around 13% in single-seat terms here in 2022; Labour *generally* haven't overturned those kinds of leads…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxpj5wwnlf2n
Published: August 31, 2025 16:30
SP26: South Scotland Region Preview
What do Eyemouth and East Kilbride have in common? Beats me, but they're in the same region now. Will the Greens fill in their one 2021 gap, and can the Conservatives keep the whole border blue?…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxmyoh5fs524
Published: August 30, 2025 16:30
SP26: A Tale of Two Civil Wars
A summer of strife concludes with the Greens in a happier position than they might have expected, whilst the Conservatives plumb new depths of misery.
https://ballotbox.scot/tale-of-two-civil-wars/
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxjznnbqn22g
Published: August 29, 2025 12:10
Not as much to a Green leadership election as other parties, but nonetheless everything is now added to this page, which caps off this particular contest!
https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/green-leadership-election-2025/
[contains quote post or…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxjpdfgnzk2x
Published: August 29, 2025 09:05
Scottish Green Party Co-Leadership election 2025, first preferences:
Gillian Mackay MSP: 322 (33.9%)
Ross Greer MSP: 298 (31.4%)
Lorna Slater MSP: 264 (27.8%)
Dominic Ashmole: 66 (6.9%)
Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer elected Co-Leaders.
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxhxroogrk2h
Published: August 28, 2025 16:31
By-Election Preview: Caol and Mallaig (Highland)Â 25th of September 2025
Unfinished business from 2022, as this ward was uncontested then. Highland = Independent has been the recent tale, but the Lib Dems have been gunning for Lochaber lately too.…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxhdfi4mrc2n
Published: August 28, 2025 10:26
This article on the BBC has a section which is not quite accurate I'm afraid. I appreciate that "more parties standing = more competition for list seats" seems like a really obvious claim to make, but it's actually not as direct as that. It's vote share…
https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3lxh7n225l22n
Published: August 28, 2025 09:19
Parliamentarian defections are great fun because nobody likes them regardless, but in Scotland we get extra huffiness when it's a list MSP and everyone suddenly pretends that constituency MSPs have a special magical personal mandate when actually it's…