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🦜 @aschatz.bsky.social - Aaron Schatz

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Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN+ writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.

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Published: December 19, 2024 20:18

Didn't fit this in but Jackson was also inactive for the second BAL-PIT game in 2019 and he wasn't yet the starter for either of the BAL-PIT games in 2018. He has played for the Ravens for 7 years and this will be just his 6th start against the Steelers. …

Published: December 19, 2024 20:15

Does Lamar Jackson have a history of bad games against the Steelers? Not as much as he has a history of just not playing against the Steelers! 2023: inactive for the 2nd BAL-PIT game 2022: injured for both BAL-PIT games 2021: injured for 2nd BAL-PIT game…

Published: December 19, 2024 15:45

Fun with the inconsistency of CB stats. Here are CB coverage DVOAs, lower is better. Derek Stingley Wk 1-8: +1% Wk 9-15: -46% Riq Woolen Wk 1-8: -43% Wk 9-15: +25% Jack Jones Wk 1-8: -25% Wk 9-15: +46% Zyon McCullum Wk 1-8: -40% Wk 9-15: +2%

Published: December 19, 2024 15:16

New at @ftnfantasy.bsky.social, @brykno.bsky.social has our ballot for the 2024 Pro Bowl defense and special teams, featuring a lot of Broncos and Eagles! ($$) https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/our-2024-pro-bowl-ballot-defense

Published: December 18, 2024 21:35

More Ravens... they're a fascinating team. The Ravens are the No. 2 DVOA offense in "late and close" which means any play in the 2H or OT with the score within 8 pts. Only GB has been better. The Ravens are the worst defense in the NFL in "late and…

Published: December 18, 2024 21:29

The Ravens defense is below average on the other 80 yards of the field, of course, but note that they held the Steelers to nothing but field goals the first time the two teams met... [contains quote post or other embedded content]

Published: December 18, 2024 21:26

Speaking of the red zone, here are some fun DVOA stats. No. 1 offense in the red zone: Baltimore No. 1 defense in the red zone: Also Baltimore No. 32 offense in the red zone: Dallas No. 32 defense in the red zone: Also Dallas

Published: December 18, 2024 21:24

Here's another tidbit as I prep tomorrow's Week 16 preview podcast with @miketanier.bsky.social: The Vikings defense doesn't have a lot of weaknesses but one of them is the red zone where they are just 16th in DVOA. Too bad the Seahawks suck so bad there…

Published: December 18, 2024 19:52

Updated Coverage DVOA Top CB Thru Wk 15 (min 300 routes) B.Murphy MIN P.Surtain DEN T.Still LAC D.Baker TEN T.Smith TB B.Bishop PIT J.Johnson CHI C.Benford BUF D.Jackson PIT G.Williams ARI I'll run full numbers again for FTN subscribers after Week 17.

Published: December 18, 2024 15:25

New on @ftnfantasy.bsky.social from @brykno.bsky.social: Our picks for the 2024 Pro Bowl ballot (offense). The AFC QBs are easy! The NFC QBs are much harder. Plus, everyone from Ja'Marr Chase to Derrick Henry to THREE Eagles OLs. QBs free, rest is…

Published: December 18, 2024 14:58

Hi! Did you miss yesterday's DVOA commentary? Wrote about why we have the Ravens at No. 1 instead of the Bills, and some of the differences between DVOA and EPA related to fourth downs, fourth quarters, and turnovers. [contains quote post or other…

Published: December 17, 2024 18:32

New DVOA ratings and commentary. All the other advanced metrics based on EPA have the Bills on top. DVOA now has the 9-5 Ravens at No. 1. What are the differences? Start with turnovers, fourth downs, and the fourth quarter. …

Published: December 17, 2024 15:06

My preseason takes weren't all great this year, but one that I'm proud of is that you couldn't trust two old quarterbacks coming off Achilles injuries to be as good as they were before the injuries. Kirk Cousins is now 13th in pass DYAR. Aaron Rodgers is…

Published: December 16, 2024 22:20

Trying to come up with an equivalent to the Detroit Lions, another team that was dominating the season and then just ran into way too many injuries but NOT the starting QB. Any suggestions? I'm combing through old DVOA numbers and no team stands out to me.

Published: December 16, 2024 17:35

New Quick Reads at @ftnfantasy.bsky.social: Jared Goff throws to the middle of the field more than anyone else, but he's not as good as it as you might think! (FREE) Plus, best and worst players of Week 15 by DYAR highlighted by Goff and Josh Allen ($). …

Published: December 16, 2024 15:14

Lots of 2024 to talk about today but I also have some old DVOA news. We're done with 1978! Top players are very similar to 1979: Staubach, Campbell, Jefferson. Top teams are Steelers/Cowboys. But who's No. 1? You'll find out when we run all the numbers…

Published: December 16, 2024 14:16

DVOA Playoff Odds are now updated. We have the Philadelphia Eagles as our new SB favorites. I tried to estimate a penalty for the Detroit defensive injuries. It's tough to get quite right because you don't want to overweight a small sample size. …

Published: December 16, 2024 13:46

Here's an updated list of the top offenses in DVOA history, now through 14 games. There's a real discrepancy between EPA and DVOA when it comes to the Ravens, I'll be looking into that later today. Some of it is related to penalties.

Published: December 16, 2024 13:16

Thanks in large part to opponent adjustments (because the Cowboys are bad), Carolina's 30-14 loss to Dallas yesterday gets -117% DVOA, which is the worst single game of the year. The Panthers have the two worst games, the other being Week 1 vs. New…

Published: December 16, 2024 00:50

In case anybody says "the Lions would have won without the onside kick attempt," remember we have no idea how much longer the Bills would have held onto the ball on that offensive possession if the Lions had kicked deep.

Published: December 16, 2024 00:13

Very interesting decision by the Lions to onside kick. I think they figured they would just have such a hard time stopping the Bills offense, it didn't matter what yard line the Bills got the ball, they needed the chance to get an additional possession.

Published: December 15, 2024 22:11

In all seriousness, I appreciate the devotion of the Lions fans but Jared Goff is fourth in passing DYAR this year without even considering Jackson and Allen's rushing value OR the easy buttons that Ben Johnson hammers for him.

Published: December 15, 2024 22:09

This is the best I've seen the Eagles run defense. They're actually only 14th in adjusted line yards but 4th in DVOA in part because they've been very good in short-yardage situations. They're not normally this good in first-and-10s.

Published: December 15, 2024 19:32

I was about to write: "Chiefs up 17-0 at halftime. We said the run of close wins couldn't continue. Could this be the long-awaited... gasp... LARGE CHIEFS WIN?" Uh, Butker missed the field goal. OK, 14-0. Not as big.

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