RSS Parrot

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lgbc2yum4c2z

Published: January 21, 2025 16:38

I remember the Atlanta airport being like this the morning after the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl in 2019 as well. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lgb5d5vddk2z

Published: January 21, 2025 15:13

New at @ftnfantasy.bsky.social: Aggressiveness Index for 2024. Which coaches go for it on fourth down the most compared to when coaches actually go for it, not what EPA models say they should do. Dan Campbell and Sean McDermott, of course. …

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lgb3qmcbek2z

Published: January 21, 2025 14:45

Advanced metrics took a hit in the NFL playoffs, as almost every metric had Lions or Ravens at No. 1. But the advanced metrics look great in college. Ohio State was No. 1 in both SP+ and FEI despite two losses and a No. 8 seed in the CFP. They won it all. …

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lgb3d366vs2z

Published: January 21, 2025 14:37

Do the Chiefs truly have an extra gear in the playoffs? Whether that's the case or it is just random variation is a debate left up to the readers. But yeah, they've been better in the playoffs, definitely, esp. once you adjust for opponent strength. …

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lgazzirjpk2z

Published: January 21, 2025 14:14

A 🧵 of DVOA week-to-week graphs. First, the Chiefs offense. Ignore Week 18, obviously. Very few great games, but very few bad games either, and the great games were recent. (1/8)

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg77w4oizs2a

Published: January 20, 2025 20:54

Reminder that the new DVOA ratings are here: https://ftnfantasy.com/week-20-dvoa-two-teams-stand-out-in-final-four

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg77a2jik22a

Published: January 20, 2025 20:42

This makes sense to me, although I'm sure it will be emotional for him to have to compete with the Lions for the division. Johnson going to the Raiders really made no sense to me. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg77756ycs2a

Published: January 20, 2025 20:41

Got the Aggressiveness Index (fourth down go) numbers from Jim Armstrong today so that will run on @ftnfantasy.bsky.social tomorrow.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg72jtxmjk2y

Published: January 20, 2025 19:18

Getting a number of complaints from Commanders fans that the Commanders run defense has improved in the second half of the season. This is true. From Week 1-9, it ranked 26th. From Week 10-18, it ranked 19th.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6uf72us224

Published: January 20, 2025 17:28

New Quick Reads: Best and worst players of the week by DYAR. Jayden Daniels leads. Why Saquon Barkley didn't have as high DYAR as you might expect. A lot of short runs! ($) https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/divisional-round-quick-reads-daniels-flies-high

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6p35uesc26

Published: January 20, 2025 15:53

Come join us in 10 minutes! We'll take your questions. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6olmuixs2s

Published: January 20, 2025 15:44

2023 penalties: 1825 home 1867 away 2022 penalties: 1690 home 1891 away [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6o2w5edc2s

Published: January 20, 2025 15:35

On the other hand, one game where the Chiefs run D was really good in Weeks 9-17 was against the Bills. Three RB combined for just 49 yards on 19 carries. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6nyan4r22s

Published: January 20, 2025 15:33

Question for the Chiefs people out there. I understand the idea that the decline in pass defense was tied to Jaylen Watson's injury. However, the Chiefs also went from 1st in run D in Wk 1-8 to 19th in Wk 9-17. What could have caused this?

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6n2n3lp22c

Published: January 20, 2025 15:17

Here is what I would be worried about next week if I'm a Commanders fan. 26th in run defense DVOA 23rd in adjusted line yards 31st in second-level yards allowed (5-10 past LOS) 26th in open-field yards allowed (11+ past LOS)

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6mbkxcwk2c

Published: January 20, 2025 15:03

Here are DVOA Ratings through the Divisional Round. At the risk of underrating the Chiefs, our ratings clearly make the Eagles and Bills this week's favorites, although home-field advantage will cancel some of that out in the AFC. …

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6lmxos2s26

Published: January 20, 2025 14:51

2024 penalties, without false starts Home 1,670 Away 1,800 And this is very interesting, but I think a one-year blip. False Starts Home 343 Away 340 [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6l2nk74s26

Published: January 20, 2025 14:41

Regarding the idea of the officials "rigging" games for the Chiefs, the following things *are* true. 1) More penalties are generally called on road teams. I believe this is true in all sports. 2) Sometimes, superstars get the benefit of the doubt. Again,…

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6gc7ox7c22

Published: January 20, 2025 13:16

This week's Post-Game Win Expectancies Washington 83.3% Kansas City 80.5% Buffalo 63.6% and this one surprised me... Philadelphia 16.7%. Often, the team with better passing is going to beat the team with better rushing. Not this time.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6eydarwc27

Published: January 20, 2025 12:52

1987 was amazing. Trying to explain 1987 to people who were not alive at the time is really difficult. The whole idea of replacement players was completely insane and the results were wackadoo. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6e5j5nk227

Published: January 20, 2025 12:37

Also seeing a lot of criticism from people like Nick Wright that people are going to say that the Ravens were "the best team to ever not make the conference championship." Actually, the 2010 Patriots and 1987 49ers were the best teams to ever not make the…

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg6dzhces227

Published: January 20, 2025 12:35

As a lot of people are pointing out, losing in the divisional round indicates that your team was overrated and you are a loser who will never win the big game. For example, the 2004 and 2005 Indianapolis Colts. Whatever happened to those guys?

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5ds3gpr225

Published: January 20, 2025 02:58

I deleted my comment about Bills fans being really nasty human beings because I know it's just some of them, but guys, take your great win with some freakin' dignity, will you?

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5dbpgnn225

Published: January 20, 2025 02:49

OK, touche. This might be an even worse example of "nobody believes in us" B.S. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5cwar5xc25

Published: January 20, 2025 02:43

At least that game definitely lived up to the expectations.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5copebo225

Published: January 20, 2025 02:38

That's right. "A few people picked the Bills to finish third in a tough division" is exactly the same as "everyone said we have no talent." You've got it, exactly the same thing! [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5clxi7dk25

Published: January 20, 2025 02:37

Josh Allen just said that all year, people have said that the Buffalo Bills have no talent. That may be the worst example of "nobody believes in us" B.S. I have ever heard.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5ck6n6e225

Published: January 20, 2025 02:36

Mark Andrews had an awesome regular season this year. Feel terrible for him.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5bn6plzc25

Published: January 20, 2025 02:20

Passes to Justice Hill killed the Bills in Week 4 and he doesn't have a target tonight yet.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5bh3uxa225

Published: January 20, 2025 02:16

I understand the kick. That was more like 2.5 yards, not 2 yards. The worst-case scenario now is probably overtime and even that requires not just a TD but a 2-pt conversion.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5al54wmk2p

Published: January 20, 2025 02:01

OK, please tell me we aren't going to blame Lamar Jackson for that one.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5aibo3gs2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:59

At some point they've got to have a Lamar Jackson keeper to switch it up.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5a5jyz6s2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:53

After Bass and Tucker were both problems this season, their kicks have all looked great tonight. So far.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg57yc6fss2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:50

This is the drive the Bills needed here.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg57q7dd7s2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:46

Third-and-3 to start the fourth quarter? Run Allen.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg57lzaogs2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:43

Baltimore now outgaining the Bills 7.0 to 4.7 yards per play. Turnovers are bad.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg57iznoqk2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:42

Dude weighs 15 pounds more than Jim Brown. Jim Brown! Same height. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg57hlghrs2p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:41

OK, see, now, THAT was actually the Milano effect.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg57afd7r22p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:37

That was the explosive for the Bills defense to give up. Almost really explosive.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg572tuf422p

Published: January 20, 2025 01:34

I'm getting a lot of criticism already that DVOA has the Ravens so high. I mean, they went 12-5. How on earth could you predict that a 12-5 team would win in the Divisional Round? No 12-5 team has won in the Divisional Round since yesterday.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg54vgvmhc2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:55

And the Ravens end up with exactly the opposite of what they needed. I know the Ravens fans want to see a conspiracy but bad officiating is random. That DPI was not an attempt to hand the Bills the game.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg54ptrkoc2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:52

That honestly looked more like offensive pass interference to me than defensive pass interference.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg544hpp7s2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:41

Ravens defense has to get strong here. Can't let the Bills score, end the half, and then get the ball again in Q3.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg53uovl522p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:36

Feels like the Ravens are reticent to just run a read option here with Lamar at the goal line.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg53ln2q7k2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:31

Officials need to lay down the law and stop the fighting.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg535g5qxs2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:23

Well, that play wasn't good for the Lamar Jackson discourse.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg5323cf2c2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:22

If they want to blitz Lamar, he was fifth in DVOA against the blitz this year... but he wasn't as good as he was overall.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg52vvofyk2p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:19

It's so strange to see a Sean McDermott team play base, like there are aliens on the field.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg527sjkx22p

Published: January 20, 2025 00:07

I don't really think the pressure got to Lamar on that interception. He just overthrew Bateman. Had the time, bad throw.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4yuuezu223

Published: January 19, 2025 23:43

This is the Bills run defense. Lots of stuffs and then they give up the explosives...

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4yg6a4e223

Published: January 19, 2025 23:35

CBS just talked about trying to figure out when there's ever been a Divisional Round matchup with this much hype. Maybe 2004 Patriots vs. Colts? Early in the Brady-Manning discourse.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4xcdvas223

Published: January 19, 2025 23:15

OK, my head wants the Ravens to help prove that my stats are smart. My heart wants the Bills so their fans can finally get back to the Super Bowl. Head vs. heart, let's do this.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4x6wiu3s23

Published: January 19, 2025 23:13

Quite a finish, congratulations Eagles fans, great season continues. Washington and the Eagles split this year, should be great next week.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4wmwa6js23

Published: January 19, 2025 23:03

The ultimate snow game experience would be if the Rams march down the field here, score the touchdown, and then miss the XP and we go to overtime.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4wlirrjc23

Published: January 19, 2025 23:02

Kickers, smh. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4wezykk223

Published: January 19, 2025 22:58

The best playoff rushing game by DYAR is Eric Dickerson in 1985 against an excellent Cowboys run defense, 34 carries for 248 yards and two touchdowns.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4w642zjc23

Published: January 19, 2025 22:54

The over, never in doubt.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4vzfdhys2l

Published: January 19, 2025 22:52

I can imagine some team with a bad offensive line signing Najee Harris because they think running backs matter more again. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4ulbzuxs2l

Published: January 19, 2025 22:26

Eagles had second down at the 2 and couldn't get the last two yards. That doesn't happen often.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4tsvdih22l

Published: January 19, 2025 22:12

The Eagles offensive line is really not playing up to its usual standard on these pass plays. But also, Hurts needs to get rid of the ball quicker.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4rylymzk24

Published: January 19, 2025 21:40

Snow doesn't really depress scoring much. Difficulty for receivers is offset by difficulty for pass rushers. Not as big a deal as winds, certainly.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4pgoyxhs24

Published: January 19, 2025 20:54

ESPN model had it as a go while Baldwin model had this as a toss-up. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4or4zsbc24

Published: January 19, 2025 20:42

Is there anyone else who lives near Montreal and has a weird problem with the NBC TV show being pronounced "Saint Dennis?"

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4olyhzf224

Published: January 19, 2025 20:39

That hole Saquon Barkley went through was like five Saquons wide. That was insane.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4ogjr3a224

Published: January 19, 2025 20:36

Did you also think to yourself "this is going to be unnecessary roughness" before Witherspoon even hit DeVonta Smith?

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4o5kqkwk24

Published: January 19, 2025 20:31

Quinyon Mitchell return now listed as questionable. That's not good for the Eagles.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4mvoksdk2t

Published: January 19, 2025 20:09

That Elliott missed XP is the thing that's going to let the Chiefs win by 1. (Sorry, it's just habit at this point.)

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4mu35unc2t

Published: January 19, 2025 20:08

Thanks to @bradtucker.bsky.social for pointing out I did the math wrong on tiebreakers in 1980 and 1983, so the Lions are actually the 25th 1 seed since 1978 to lose in the divisional round. 1980 CLE and 1983 MIA were 2 seeds. [contains quote post or…

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4fvgnfpk26

Published: January 19, 2025 18:03

The fact that the Lions were the 27th 1 seed since 1978 to lose in the divisional round shows that it does happen frequently. Roughly every other year. Both 1 seeds lost in the divisional round in 1979, 1980, 2008, 2010, and 2021 (GB/TEN). [contains…

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg4ffww7nc26

Published: January 19, 2025 17:55

Detroit Lions were the 27th 1 seed since 1978 to lose in the divisional round. The best of those teams by DVOA: 2010 NE (14-2) 1987 SF (10-2) 2019 BAL (14-2) 2012 DEN (13-3) 2024 DET (15-2) 2000 TEN (13-3) 2005 IND (14-2) 2006 SD (14-2)

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg3wip6d3k2j

Published: January 19, 2025 13:28

POINT TO WIN! [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2y3nkm5c2j

Published: January 19, 2025 04:23

Eek. Five turnovers.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2xjaghlk2j

Published: January 19, 2025 04:13

I'm not sure who would be favored between the Commanders and the Rams. The Eagles will be favored over the Commanders if they make it, but the Commanders at least know they can beat the Eagles. Well, with Kenny Pickett, but in their minds that won't…

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2xecgfnc2j

Published: January 19, 2025 04:10

Jayden Daniels, so good against the blitz tonight, will face in the NFC Championship Game either a low-blitzing (Eagles) or medium-blitzing (Rams) defense.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2wjsfvi22j

Published: January 19, 2025 03:56

Feel bad for the Lions fans but good for the Commanders fans, who haven't been to the NFC Championship Game since the 1991 season.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2vuss7422j

Published: January 19, 2025 03:44

Jameson Williams has to know to throw that away if the receiver isn't open.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2vlsn6tk2j

Published: January 19, 2025 03:39

Why didn't the Lions call a timeout there?

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2uycd5xk2j

Published: January 19, 2025 03:28

Lions are just out of defensive players at this point.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2ugjzenk2j

Published: January 19, 2025 03:18

First-round left tackle First-round center First-round right tackle [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2uage7a22r

Published: January 19, 2025 03:15

Ben Johnson is insane.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2sogs73c2r

Published: January 19, 2025 02:47

Yeah, don't win a lot of games with a -3 turnover margin.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2s6zsnp22r

Published: January 19, 2025 02:38

This game is going to end up hitting the over before halftime.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2s3vooe22r

Published: January 19, 2025 02:36

Smart of Lions to take timeouts here, make sure they get ball back with as much time as possible to match whatever score the Commanders get here.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2rupmcnk2r

Published: January 19, 2025 02:32

Jayden Daniels is very, very good.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2rmekitc2r

Published: January 19, 2025 02:28

Or not, apparently. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

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Published: January 19, 2025 02:26

Well, now it is the worst-case scenario for the Lions.

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Published: January 19, 2025 02:21

Now it's really a ballgame! I have no clue how the Lions did not bring Martin down before he scored.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2r24bvss2r

Published: January 19, 2025 02:17

All these live CGI remakes of animated movies... You know, old school animation is good too!

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2psl7hdk2h

Published: January 19, 2025 01:55

Ertz resuscitating his career is one of the surprises of this season.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2orlirgs2t

Published: January 19, 2025 01:37

2024: Year of the Stretching T-Shirt Under Your Jersey During Tackles

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2onpqxl22t

Published: January 19, 2025 01:35

I liked that fake run with the pitch but boy did that not work.

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Published: January 19, 2025 01:29

Today features the two worst units left in the playoffs: the Texans offense and the Commanders defense. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2oaihpdc2c

Published: January 19, 2025 01:27

The Commanders have some good defensive players like Luvu and Wagner but overall the efficiency was not good this sesaon.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2o23tehc2c

Published: January 19, 2025 01:24

So from what I understand from my followers, the NFL rigs games to favor star players, because apparently that makes them more money, except that they apparently forgot to rig things in 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2021.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2lyqcuk22f

Published: January 19, 2025 00:47

I keep comparing the Chiefs to the 1990 49ers so we'll have to see what happens next week... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199101120sfo.htm

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2lf7mtus2m

Published: January 19, 2025 00:36

One of the things I don't understand about the idea that the league is rigging things for the Chiefs is WHY? What does the NFL have to gain? It's not like KC is a huge media market. If the answer is "attention for a three-peat" why not rig that for the…

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2kpuwjts2m

Published: January 19, 2025 00:24

Shockingly, the 2012 Ravens (who had great regular-season special teams) in the Mile High Miracle game which they won anyway in 2OTs. Allowed both kickoff and punt returns for TDs. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2kjyyklc2m

Published: January 19, 2025 00:21

DVOA against the blitz this year out of the top 40 QBs. Lamar Jackson 5th Josh Allen 9th C.J. Stroud 33rd Next week *should* be a little different.

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2kanrm5c2u

Published: January 19, 2025 00:16

Uh, who is Houston's play action supposed to fool in this game situation?

https://bsky.app/profile/aschatz.bsky.social/post/3lg2k6o564s2u

Published: January 19, 2025 00:15

Don't worry Troy, none of us really know what a catch is and we haven't for years.